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 | Alasdair Macleod - Finance and Eco. |
| The egregious errors of static statistics |
| The measure of a man's real character is what he would do if he knew he would never be found out. Lord Macaulay wrote this nearly two hundred years ago. His aphorism is particularly apposite of modern politicians, and also of the modern state itself, which is meant to be selfless in the interest of the common good. We can be certain that when a person moves from outside to inside the machinery of the state, he or she changes from representing the people to representing the state. Presumably therFriday, March 16, 2018 |
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 | Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie |
| Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes |
| – Gold no longer fears or pays attention to Fed announcements regarding interest rates
– Renewed interest in gold due to inflation fears and concern Fed won’t do enough to control it
– Higher interest rates on horizon will make debt levels unsustainable
– New Fed Chair warns “the US is not on a sustainable fiscal path” and could lead to an “unsustainable” debt load
– Higher interest rates are good for gold as seen in the 1970s and 2000s
– Gold markets aware that central banks are running out of Thursday, March 8, 2018 |
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 | Chris Powell - GATA |
| New analysis sees return of trillion-dollar budget deficits |
| * * *
By Andrew Taylor
Associated Press
via Minneapolis Star Tribune
Friday, March 2, 2018
WASHINGTON -- Trillion-dollar budget deficits are returning next year, and $2 trillion-plus deficits are not far off in the wake of President Donald Trump's tax cuts and last month's big budget deal, a private group warned in a new analysis today.
The analysis, by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, says that the separate tax and spending measures, along with increased borrowing costs, promise Friday, March 2, 2018 |
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| Chris Powell - GATA |
| Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Libor surge nears danger level for debt-drenched world |
| The stress signals of the global credit system are flashing amber. The offshore dollar funding markets that lubricate world finance are facing an incipient squeeze.
The "Libor-OIS spread," watched carefully by traders, has risen to levels reached during the onset of the Chinese currency crisis in early 2016 and during the onset of the Italian and Spanish funding crisis in late 2011.
The three-month rate for dollar Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) used to price a vast nexus of financial coThursday, March 1, 2018 |
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| Alasdair Macleod - Finance and Eco. |
| A Roman lesson on inflation |
| “While it is the duty of the citizen to support the state, it is not the duty of the state to support the citizen” – President Grover ClevelandThe point President Cleveland made back in the 1880s was that individuals and vested interests had no rights to preferential treatment by a government elected to represent all. For if preference is given, it is always at the expense of others.Those days are long gone, and the last president to take this stance was Calvin Coolidge in the 1920s. He was follFriday, February 23, 2018 |
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 | Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin |
| Did The Office Of Management And Budget Just Throw In The Towel |
| At some point you really have to begin to wonder if the U.S. government has simply given up on the idea of even pretending to have any sort of fiscal plan.
It’s almost as if they’ve stopped trying to even bother to maintain the appearance of solvency, and are just wondering how long it will take before the market notices and ends the charade.
A quick review is that the publicly stated debt is now over $20 trillion, with unfunded liabilities like Social Security and Medicare raising the real totaFriday, February 23, 2018 |
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 | Michael Pento - Delta Global Advisors |
| Four Percent 10-year Note Yield Will Be a Floor No... |
| The two most important factors in determining the level of sovereign bond yields are the credit and inflation risks extant within a nation. When determining a country’s ability to service its debt investors must analyze not only the absolute debt level, but also the ratios of debt and deficits to GDP. In addition, the current rate of inflation must also be viewed within the context of debt in order to make an accurate assumption as to the level of future inflation.
When analyzing historical measWednesday, February 21, 2018 |
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| Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie |
| Global Debt Crisis II Cometh |
| – Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns– Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn
– Global non-financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years
– US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014– US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years– UK consumer debt hit £200b, highest level in 30 years, 25% of households behind on repayments
The ducks are beginning to Wednesday, February 14, 2018 |
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| Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin |
| Budget Issues Return To Spotlight As Next Debt Ceiling Circus Looms |
| Judging by the fact that you’re reading this, at some point you have probably been concerned about the financial condition of United States government.
The publicly stated debt is now over $20 trillion, while Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff pegs the cost of unfunded liabilities at over $222 trillion! Not exactly ideal in an $18 trillion economy. And if there’s an accountant out there who can explain how it’s even feasibly possible that the debt could ever be repaid without defaultWednesday, February 14, 2018 |
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 | Stewart Thomson - Graceland Update |
| Gold: The Ultimate Iron Lady |
| The appointment of Jerome Powell as new Fed chair is likely the catalyst that ushers in a multi-decade era of rising inflation and soaring gold stocks.
I’ve announced a long term target for GDX of $15,000. That really isn’t very high… given the strong inflation numbers that I am projecting for America in the years ahead.
Having said that, Powell has only been on the job for one day. Investors need to show patience. Wait to see what he actually does before taking “back up the truck” market actiWednesday, February 7, 2018 |
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 | Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital |
| Raising Rates Reflect Bigger Debt Not Faster Growth |
| While investors are justifiably focused on what may be the opening crescendo of a long overdue sell-off in stocks, there is not, as of yet, as feverish a discussion of the parallel sell-offs in bonds and the U.S. dollar, which have been underway for at least a year and a half in bonds and 14 months for the dollar. I contend that this should be widely understood as the root causes of the jittery Dow, and are ultimately far more important. A continued decline in the dollar and bonds holds the poteMonday, February 5, 2018 |
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 | Thorsten Polleit - |
| Central Banks Put a Safety Net Under Financial Markets |
| Most early business cycle indicators suggest that the global economy is pretty much roaring ahead. Production and employment are rising. Firms keep investing and show decent profits. International trade is expanding. Credit is easy to obtain. Stock prices keep moving up to ever higher levels. All seems to be well. Or does it? Unfortunately, the economic upswing shows the devil’s footprints: central banks have set it in motion with their extremely low, end in some countries even negative, interesFriday, January 26, 2018 |
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| Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie |
Davos – My Personal Experience of the $100,000 Event, $60 Burgers, Massive Inequality and the Blockchain Revolution  |
| – Davos elite hear warnings of complacency akin to 2007 as economic risks grow
– Toxic mix of infallible belief, arrogance, megalomania and economic ignorance
– Some express concern economies are vulnerable due to imbalances, trade, geo-political tensions– Soros: Trump creating ‘mafia state’ & ‘set on a course towards nuclear war’ with N Korea– Bond bear market, rising interest rates and massive $233 trillion debt are some of the many threats to global stability
– Davos theme explores massive inFriday, January 26, 2018 |
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| Alasdair Macleod - Finance and Eco. |
| Unsound money is crucifying pensions |
| Deficits are mounting in pension obligations. It is a global problem over which pension trustees are helpless. It is also a problem that’s brushed under the carpet, with prospective and current pensioners generally unaware of the threat to their retirement. Investors in companies with defined benefit schemes, schemes which promise an inflation-adjusted entitlement based on final salary, generally ignore this important issue, as do most stock market analysts. Analysts know the deficits are there,Thursday, January 25, 2018 |
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| Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie |
| Government Shutdown Ends – Markets Ignore Looming Debt and Bond Market Threat |
| – U.S. Senate pass a temporary spending plan through Feb. 8 to end shutdown– Markets shrug off both government shutdown and re-opening– Markets, government and media ignoring worsening US debt position
– Gold responding positively to U.S. dysfunction, rising US Treasury yields & weaker dollar
– U.S. government national debt is $20.6 trillion and increasing rapidly– ‘Bonds, like men, are in a bear market’ – Bill Gross
Editor: Mark O’Byrne
Investors “irrational exuberance” continues after the largTuesday, January 23, 2018 |
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| Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie |
| UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1 and House Prices Fall |
| – UK inflation hits 3.1%, highest in nearly six years– UK earnings flat – households are still suffering falling real wages– Stagflation risk as food and drink prices jumped 4.1% in 12 months– UK house prices fall two-months in a row, down 0.5% in October– Real stagflation risk now, inflation high and growth slowing– Savings continue to be eaten by inflation
It was just two years ago that Mark Carney was writing his fourth letter to the British Chancellor, explaining why the country was in a dTuesday, January 2, 2018 |
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| Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital |
| Fake Tax Reform |
| After supposedly chomping on the bit for years to pass meaningful tax reform, Republicans are now set to blow an historic opportunity. Whatever version of the Bill that emerges from the House and Senate Conference Committee (which will be signed by President Trump faster than he can down a Filet o’Fish), will be far less than the Republicans envisioned when they finally captured the White House and both Congressional Chambers in 2016. But from what I have seen of the particulars, the revisions tThursday, December 7, 2017 |
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| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| Bubble Watch: US Margin Debt Now Equal the Economy of Taiwan |
| When Central Banks attempted to corner the sovereign bond market via ZIRP and QE, they forced ALL risk in the financial system to adjust lower.
Remember, in a fiat-based monetary system such as the one used by the world today, sovereign bonds NOT gold are the ultimate backstop for the financial system.
And for the US, which controls the reserve currency of the world, sovereign bonds, also called Treasuries, represent the “risk-free” rate of return for the entire world.
So when the Fed moved to cFriday, December 1, 2017 |
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| Thorsten Polleit - |
| The Fed's Great Unwind: Will It Sink Us |
| In the eyes of many people, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is an indispensable institution. We are told it supports growth and employment, fends off the negative shocks, and fights inflation. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The Fed’s fiat money regime is economically and socially highly destructive — causing far-reaching societal and political consequences that extend beyond what most people would imagine.Fiat money is inflationary, it debases the purchasing power of money; it benefits a fewTuesday, November 28, 2017 |
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| Michael Pento - Delta Global Advisors |
| Soaring Deficits Force Treasury into Foolish Gambl... |
| As mentioned last week in Part I, the U.S. National debt is now at a record $20.5 trillion. And the first month of fiscal 2018 showed a deficit increase of nearly 38% over fiscal 2017. The total amount of Non-Financial Debt is up nearly $15 trillion during the 2007-2017 timeframe. In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that household debt totaled $13 trillion in the third quarter ended September 30th, which is a record high and the 13th straight quarterly increase. And, CNBCTuesday, November 28, 2017 |
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