| |
 | Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Hussman Questions Grantham's "Melt-Up" Thesis |
| Value investor Jeremy Grantham suggests "Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up". Grantham's 13-page synopsis Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up suggests the bubble will burst and the consequences devastating, just not yet.
His key reasons center around an expected 3.5 year window that is typical of other bubbles coupled with advance decline ratios and acceleration that have not yet turned.
Acceleration
Classic Bubble
Advance-Decline
S&P 1997-2001
Summary Grantham Sunday, January 7, 2018 |
|
 | Chris Vermeulen - GoldandOilGuy |
| U.S. Bond And Small Cap Stock Soaring Together |
| U.S. Stock Markets just keep going higher and higher! How much higher will they go? I am FORECASTING another 25% higher for U.S. Stocks! The ‘bullish trend’ from the breakout continues, as expected. Breadth has become strong, once again, including a new all-time high on the SPX Advance/Decline line to match the new all-time high for the SPX. My breath thrust index reissued another buy for the SPX on May 31st, 2017! Once the markets wake up and realize that there will be no U.S. tradewars, theFriday, June 9, 2017 |
|
 | Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold |
| Warning Signs in Precious Metals |
| Precious metals closed the first quarter with solid gains. Gold gained almost
9% while Silver gained 14%. The miners (GDX and GDXJ) gained the same amounts
(9% and 14%) but unlike the metals which closed at their highs of the quarter,
ended up losing more than half their gains. Despite a strong quarter, the entire
complex remains below the February highs and 200-day moving average (ex Silver)
just days after the US Dollar index rebounded strongly from its own 200-day
moving average.Monday, April 3, 2017 |
|
| Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold |
| Technicals for Gold Miners Remain Weak |
| Last week we wrote that precious metals should see upside follow through but
to be wary of the 200-day moving averages and February highs before becoming
excited. The metals did follow through as Gold gained 1.5% and Silver gained
1.9% (for the week) but the miners disappointed. GDX gained only 1.1% while
GDXJ finished in the red as did junior silver companies (SILJ). As spring beckons,
the gold stocks are showing relative and internal weakness.
Two signs of weakness in the miners areSaturday, March 25, 2017 |
|
| Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold |
| Gold and Gold Stocks Hit Upside Targets. Now What |
| The precious metals sector has reached the upside targets we've written about
since the start of 2017. Gold has touched almost $1250/oz ($1246/oz high) while
GDXJ exceeded our $41 target and GDX nearly reached $26. The glass half empty
case is the sector is now at strong resistance levels and any immediate upside
will be difficult to sustain. On the other hand, the gold stocks are showing
the internal (strong advance/decline line) and relative strength (leadership
against Gold) that Saturday, February 11, 2017 |
|
| Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold |
| Rally in Gold and Gold Stocks Has More Upside |
| Gold and Gold stocks have rallied as expected and the consolidation in the
miners in recent days looks bullish. GDX and GDXJ have digested the recent
recovery quite well as Gold is testing resistance around $1200/oz. While the
price action portends to more gains so does the breadth in the miners as well
as short-term structure in the US$ index and bond yields.
In the first chart we plot GDX along with its advance decline (AD) line at
the top. The AD line is the holy grail of breadth inTuesday, January 17, 2017 |
|
 | Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| It Feels Like Inflation |
| Last night's post on the US stock market ended as follows:"As far as the Fed and its puny rate hikes are concerned, that is irrelevant. This market is flipping them the bird. Markets can rise a long way before a rate hike regime finally kills them. It feels like inflation folks."This prompted a question from an NFTRH subscriber about what markets would benefit, and in what differing ways would they benefit if an inflationary phase comes to dominate? That is a far reaching quThursday, May 26, 2016 |
|
 | Clif Droke |
| Roadblocks to a full-fledged bull market |
| Since bottoming in February, the stock market "tape" has been very constructive. The NYSE advance-decline (A-D) line led the rally off the February lows, which is the first thing we look for when judging the strength of a bottom. Even more importantly, the cumulative NYSE new highs-new lows indicator continues to climb off its bottom of a few weeks ago and is advancing on a daily basis (below). Internal momentum, as reflected in the highs-lows, also remains positive.It's worth mentioning thatThursday, April 7, 2016 |
|
| Clif Droke |
| Trump vs. the stock market |
| The broad equities market has gotten a respite from the selling pressure which plagued it for the last few months. Some of this can be attributed to the Kress cycle "echoes" which we reviewed earlier this year. The echoes, which are based on the 6-year, 10-year, and 30-year cycles, suggested that stocks could experience a rally in the March-April time frame based on past rhythms. To date that expectation has materialized as traders cover short positions that were built up to excessive proportTuesday, March 8, 2016 |
|
| Clif Droke |
| Santa Claus rally or the start of something bigger |
| Stocks are trying to live up to the expectations for a year-end "Santa Claus" rally.Most of the market's improving internal condition is due to the latest strength in the energy sector, with the NYSE Oil Index (XOI) rallying some 6% from its recent lows.Although recent trading volume has been far lighter than normal, the NYSE advance/decline ratio for Dec. 23 was an exceptional 13:1 in favor of upside volume.That completely reversed the 1:11 downside volume day on Dec. 11.It also was the first tWednesday, December 30, 2015 |
|
 | Chris Ciovacco - Ciovacco Capital Management |
| Stock Market Breadth: Is It Really That Bad |
| 2015 Breadth Versus 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011
Market breadth speaks to the percentage of stocks participating in a stock
market rally. All things being equal, the broader the participation the healthier
the market. In this article, we will examine breadth for both the S&P 500
and NYSE Composite Stock Index. We will also examine 2015 breadth vs. similar
points after a correction and similar points in a bear market. Stock market
breadth is not particularly useful as a short-term timing Tuesday, December 8, 2015 |
|
 | Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin |
| Horrible Headlines Go Parabolic, Economic Mother Nature Nears All-Out |
| It’s Wednesday morning, and the commodity carnage is accelerating – to the point that the CRB commodity index’s “dead cat bounce” from the 40-year low of 185 it briefly touched in late August is on the verge of being taken out. Undoubtedly aided by the newly formed, but clearly overmatched, “oil, copper, and zinc PPT’s” – the latter of which was blatantly deployed on October 9th to “save” Glencore – the CRB peaked that very day, at 204, before plunging back to 189 this morning, en route to poinWednesday, November 11, 2015 |
|
| Clif Droke |
| Halloween came early this year on Wall Street |
| The Federal Reserve guessing game ended Thursday after the FOMC made its decision on interest rate policy.The Fed left rates unchanged in a tip of the hat to investors who felt the economy was vulnerable to overseas weakness.This was what most on Wall Street wanted, although there was a sharp intraday reversal after the announcement (apparently a case of buy the rumor, sell the news).In last week's commentary I emphasized that there was a built-in Wall of Worry for stocks to climb based on the rTuesday, September 22, 2015 |
|
 | Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors |
| Bull Markets Die Epicurean |
| Stock Markets
We should review the items that kept us positive on the senior indexes. Actually,
they are bull-market-ending events that have a lag. We've called them "Friends
of the bull market", which have had a brief shelf life. Both peaked in April.
One was the long uptrend in the Advance/Decline line and the other was the
peak in NYSE margin debt. The high in the senior indexes would be expected
a few months later. Late August to early September has been our target.
This time windoFriday, August 21, 2015 |
|
 | Clive Maund |
| Preparing for the Crash - SP500 index analysis - INVERSE ETFs PUTS TIMING... |
| In this update on the broad market S&P500 index we are going to look at no less than 5 charts for it, covering different timeframes, the reason for this is that there are different points to make on each of these charts. Before looking at the charts for the S&P500 index we are going to review first a range of charts, including the latest charts for Margin Debt and NYSE available cash. These charts provide the direst warning imaginable of impending trouble. The NYSE Margin Debt chart shows that iSunday, August 2, 2015 |
|
| Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors |
| Dow Theory Is Working |
| Signs of The Times
Stock Markets
Clearly, William McChesney Martin's job description of the Fed is no longer
applicable. The Fed and other senior central banks are not only drinking, but
have embraced the punchbowl. What's worse, they are too far into the party
to quit. Compulsive policymaking, so to speak.
When opportunity presents, the Chartworks notes excesses as they occur in
commodities ranging from copper to coffee to cotton as they reach identifiable
peaks. This would also incSaturday, March 7, 2015 |
|
| 24hGold - Yahoo |
| Stock Market News for March 04, 2015 - Market News |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost almost 0.5% to close at 18,203.37. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) dropped 0.5% to 2,107.78. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 4,979.90; diving 0.6%. The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased 6.3% to settle at 13.86. The composite volume on the New York Stock Exchange was 3.2 billion, lower than the average yearly volume of 3.69 billion. The advance decline ratio on the New York Stock Exchange was 2:3. Markets’ decline yeWednesday, March 4, 2015 |
|
| Aubie Baltin |
| Buy Gold Wear Diamonds! |
| "We inflate our paper currency, we repair commerce with unlimited credit, and are presently visited with unlimited bankruptcy." - R.W. Emerson, The Young American, 1844
Joseph Goebbels was Germany’s Minister of Propaganda from 1933 to 1945. He once said that if you tell a big enough lie and keep repeating it, people eventually come to believe it.
World governments, together with their media lackeys, seem to have taken Goebbels’ comments to heart. They omit facts and distort the truth to suit tMonday, January 19, 2015 |
|
| Chris Ciovacco - Ciovacco Capital Management |
| Market Breadth Is Trying To Tell Us Something About Risk |
| Volume Speaks To Conviction
Since every stock trade has a buyer and a seller, stocks do not rise when
there are more buyers than sellers (something that is not possible). Instead,
prices rise when the conviction to buy is greater than the conviction to sell.
It can be thought of this way under bullish conditions, "I am willing to sell
to you, but you are going to have to pay up". The market recently provided
us with a new conviction signal via a breadth indicator tied to volume...what
Wednesday, November 19, 2014 |
|
 | Bill Holter - Miles Franklin |
| It’s All A Financial Mirage |
| Friday was Non-farm payroll day with an announced 248,000 new jobs created in September, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9%. This is the lowest unemployment rate since 2008 so it “looks” like we have recovered and the financial crisis should only be a bad memory. I am going to tell you we are living in a financial mirage.
In September, if you look under the hood you will also see 315,000 are no longer included in the labor force bringing the total up to 92.6 million people. Looking back toMonday, October 6, 2014 |
|
|
