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 | Steve Saville - Speculative Investor |
| The problematic comparison with the 1970s |
| We suspect that the gold bull market that began in 2001 is, in very rough terms, an elongated version of the 1971-1980 bull market. Part of our reasoning is that there is evidence in the performance of the gold-mining sector of a bullish gold trend beginning in the early-1960s, with gold itself being unaTuesday, April 7, 2015 |
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| Steve Saville - Speculative Investor |
Why is gold mining such a crappy business  |
| That gold mining has generally been a crappy long-term investment for almost five decades is evidenced by the following chart. The chart, much of the data for which were provided by Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com, shows the ratio of the Barrons Gold Mining Index (BGMI) and the US$ gold price from 1920 through to the present*. More specifically, it shows that, relative to gold bullion, the group of gold-mining stocks represented by the BGMI has been in a secular decline since 1968 and is now cloMonday, October 20, 2014 |
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| Steve Saville - Speculative Investor |
| Interpreting the gold sector's long-term performance |
| The main reason that this year's huge decline in the gold-mining sector took us by surprise is that we didn't seriously consider the possibility that a major/primary correction began in September of 2011, and one of the main reasons we didn't seriously consider this possibility was our belief that a primary correction had happened as recently as 2008. It didn't seem realistic that there would be a gap of only 3.5 years between the start of one primary correction and the start of another primaryTuesday, July 30, 2013 |
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 | Egon von Greyerz - Matterhorn AM |
| The true importance of gold lies in its possession, not its price |
| “You have to be patient these days”
On occasion of the publication of his seventh annual “In Gold We Trust“ report, renowned gold market analyst Ronald Stoeferle discussed for Matterhorn Asset Management / GoldSwitzerland some aspects of his latest report and the larger picture, inter alia: the current bad market sentiment in gold; the rather strange fact that gold is traded like a currency but analyzed like a commodity; the question if it’s a problem that gold is traded now below average cash cThursday, July 4, 2013 |
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| Steve Saville - Speculative Investor |
| The gold mining sector breaks a record |
| We are leading off with a discussion of gold mining stocks because the recent price action has created a situation that can now aptly be described as unprecedented. A consequence is that there has NEVER been a better time to buy gold mining stocks.The unprecedented situation we just referred to is associated with distance below the 200-week moving average (MA). This was previously discussed in our 24th April commentary, when we wrote:"At the end of last week the BGMI [Barrons Gold Mining Index]Wednesday, July 3, 2013 |
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| Steve Saville - Speculative Investor |
| Comparing long-term gold-mining bull markets |
| The last long-term bull market in gold-mining stocks, which ran from the early-1960s through to 1980, occurred in parallel with a major upward trend in interest rates, a steady undercurrent of "inflation" fear, and the occasional dramatic "inflation" scare. However, the current -- we think it's still current, although this won't be proven until the gold-stock indices exceed their 2011 pTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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 | Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold |
| New Cyclical Bull Underway in Gold Stocks |
| Three weeks ago we wrote that the short-term
outlook in precious metals was bullish. Quoting our conclusion: "The
bottom line is this sector is very close to a breakout which would likely
confirm the May bottom. The price action has started to improve and the
sector has not been deterred by the aforementioned bad news which, in normal
conditions would have caused a selloff. In the meantime, the public has
been bearish the entire year and the dumb money has staSunday, August 26, 2012 |
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| Steve Saville - Speculative Investor |
| Gold Stocks Versus The Stock Market |
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When reviewing the long-term performance of the gold sector in previous TSI commentaries we looked at performance in nominal dollar terms and in gold terms, but as far as we can recall we never looked at performance relative to the broad stock market.This is an omission we are now going to rectify.Tuesday, April 3, 2012 |
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| Crisis Watch - Speculative Investor |
| Gold Stocks Versus The Stock Market |
| Tuesday, April 3, 2012 |
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| Steve Saville - Speculative Investor |
| Intermediate-term outlook for gold stocks |
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"The HUI is probably going to make a short-term bottom within the next three weeks, but speculators who focus on gold and silver stocks should be financially and emotionally prepared for frustrating back-and-forth price action to continue until at least the final quarter of this year."
The reasoning behind this statement has been covered a number of times in TSI commentaries over the past 9 months, but it is worth reiterating.Tuesday, March 27, 2012 |
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| Crisis Watch - Speculative Investor |
| Intermediate-term outlook for gold stocks |
| Tuesday, March 27, 2012 |
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| Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold |
| Gold Stocks Complete First Major Bottom Since 2008 |
| All bull markets have to endure a plethora of corrections and all bull markets
have to endure a handful of major corrections. The gold stocks are no different.
In fact, due to nature of the mining business and the high-beta status of these
stocks, it is very easy for investors to forget that they (the gold stocks)
are in a real structural bull market. Corrections and crashes are commonplace
and yes, even in a bull market. Yet in 2011 the gold equities did not crash.
They merely digesThursday, January 5, 2012 |
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| Steve Saville - Speculative Investor |
| Gold Stocks: The Wide Angle View |
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Gold stocks, as a group, did poorly in 2011.They did very well during 2009 and 2010, although the strong 2009-2010 performance was partly a reaction to the dismal 2008 performance.If we step back we see that despite experiencing some huge swings, they have essentially gone nowhere since March of 2008.Thursday, December 15, 2011 |
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| Crisis Watch - Speculative Investor |
| Gold Stocks: The Wide Angle View |
| Thursday, December 15, 2011 |
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| Speculative Investor |
| Gold Stocks: The Wide Angle View |
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Gold stocks, as a group, did poorly in 2011.They did very well during 2009 and 2010, although the strong 2009-2010 performance was partly a reaction to the dismal 2008 performance.If we step back we see that despite experiencing some huge swings, they have essentially gone nowhere since March of 2008.Wednesday, December 14, 2011 |
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| Crisis Watch - Speculative Investor |
| Gold Stocks: The Wide Angle View |
| Wednesday, December 14, 2011 |
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| Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold |
| Gold Stocks Break to New Highs Against Equities |
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In our most recent commentary we wrote about the relative strength in the gold equities.Gold equities have not only bucked the downtrend in the equity markets but in relative terms are breaking to new highs against equity indices.In the chart below we plot precious metals prices, GDX versus the Morgan Stanley World Index and GDX versus the S&P 500.Friday, August 19, 2011 |
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| Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold |
| Historic Move in the Gold Stocks is Directly Ahead |
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A variety of factors are lining up that lead us to believe we are on the cusp of a major move higher in the gold stocks.We feel we have been saying this for a while but the reality is we are moving closer and closer to that moment.The fundamentals couldn’t be more obvious and being in the 11th year of a bull market means the timing is ripe.Tuesday, July 26, 2011 |
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