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 | Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Goldilocks vs the Bears: Is She in the Room or Out of the Room |
| Let's investigate belief in Goldilocks vs belief in Bears.
John Rubino at DollarCollapse says A Bull Market For The History Books — Bear Market To Follow Shortly.
Why the current expansion/bull market has so long is open to debate. What’s undeniable, though, is the vast amount of malinvestment that has accumulated. The biggest example might be corporations borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars to buy back their stock at record high prices. See Record Buybacks at Worst Possible Time. If thosTuesday, March 13, 2018 |
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 | Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie |
| “This Is Where They Completely Lost Their Minds” – Hussman |
| – Hussman warns ‘the S&P 500 to lose approximately two-thirds of its value over the completion of this cycle’– ‘the market has lost value, even since 2009, when overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions were joined by divergent internals’– Believes the market is going to learn lessons about the crash ‘the hard way’
In an almost prophetic blog post from John Hussman last week, we are warned about the bubble waiting to collapse in the US equity market and the hard lesson investors are about Saturday, February 10, 2018 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Hussman: "I Expect the SP 500 to Lose 2/3 of Its Value" |
| There are bears and then there are bears. Hussman claims he is not a PermaBear, no matter how he sounds.
John Hussman's latest weekly article is called "Measuring the Bubble".
The following snip is lengthy, but not in comparison to Hussman's original text which I encourage everyone to read in full. Hussman displayed 9 charts and tables, I only snipped one of them.
I dispense with my usual blockquotes for ease in reading. The end of the snip should be easy to find.
Begin Hussman: Measuring the Saturday, February 3, 2018 |
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 | Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin |
| An Important Time of Year |
| Market turns and bubble peaks often occur in December and January.
Purpose of this article:
Recognize that most U.S. stock indices and individual stocks have risen into their bubble zones. Bubbles pop! Do your own due diligence, but think about moving capital out of dangerous markets and into something currently undervalued, unloved and unappreciated.
Silver and gold are in the early stages of what could become a roaring bull market. They have a superior risk to reward profile.
Bubbles feelWednesday, January 17, 2018 |
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| Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin |
| Market Analysis for 2018 – Part One |
| Part one analyzes global stock and bond markets. Watch out below!
Part two will address the U.S. dollar and gold prices.
2017 was an outstanding year in many markets.
DOW up 24.7%
NASDAQ 100 up 31% (Wow!)
Nikkei up 19%
DAX up 12%
Gold up 13.6%
Silver up 7.1%
XAU (gold mining stocks) Index up 8%
Dollar Index DOWN 10%
We can be certain of the following:
Death, Taxes and Politics.
When markets move too far and too fast in either direction, they correct.
Bubbles crash!
SO WHAT?
We live with theThursday, January 4, 2018 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Economists Think Inflation Will Rise Sharply in 2018: They're Wrong |
| Let's investigate six reasons economists think inflation is about to pick in 2018 and why I think they are dreaming.Reason Number One - Wage Hikes
Minimum wages rise in 18 states starting in 2018.
Former Fed Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer told Bloomberg TV on October 4, “I still believe we will have higher inflation. The basic mechanism here is unemployment is declining all the time, wages will start going up at some stage.”
Wage Hike Rebuttal
The National Bureau of Economic Research paper: MiThursday, January 4, 2018 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Pension Dilemma: Expecting 7 Returns in a Negative Yield Setup |
| Wilshire Consulting predicts 6.25% return on US Equities over a decade. Hussman and GMO predict negative returns. Wilshire Consulting's time horizon is 10 years, GMO's is 7 years, and Hussman's is 12 years.
The Feature image is from GMO's Third-Quarter Report as of 10/31/2017.
The report, which I highly recommend reading states "*The chart represents local, real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward-looking statements based Wednesday, January 3, 2018 |
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| Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin |
| Asking the Wrong Questions |
| This article is NOT relevant to High Frequency Traders, Hedge Fund Managers, the political and financial elite, or central bankers. It is relevant if:
You sense or know much is wrong in our financial world…
You worry that the furious rally in the stock market since 2009 might be close to a peak…
You know that exponentially increasing debt can’t continue forever…
You think that a 36 year bond bull market might have rolled over…
You own no politicians and have no Senators on speed-dial…
You are wMonday, November 6, 2017 |
|
| Sprott Money |
| “Party Like It’s 1999” (or 2008 or 1987 or 1929) - Dave Kranzler |
| To paraphrase the highly regarded fund manager and notable
bear, John Hussman, you can look like an idiot before a Bubble pops or
after it’s popped.
I guess I’m squarely in the camp of looking like an idiot before the
bubble pops. I might watch “The Big Short Again” for some “moral
fortitude.” With history’s stamp of approval on my side, all I can do is
shake my head and chuckle. As soon as the Dow crossed over 23,000 on
Wednesday, the “experts” on bubblevision began speculating how longThursday, October 26, 2017 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Three Massive Bubbles in 17 Years: When Will This One Bust A 60 Decline Coming |
| John Hussman’s presents a message no one wants to hear because nearly everyone is too busy believing for the third time in 17 years that “It’s different this time”.
Last week Hussman wrote about Valuations, Sufficient Statistics, and Breathtaking Risks. This week it’s more of the same with his post Behind the Potemkin Village.
The markets are so overvalued now that Hussman expects a 60% decline from here.
There’s an apocryphal story that in 1787, during the journey of Empress Catherine II to CSaturday, September 16, 2017 |
|
 | Jason Hamlin - Gold Stock Bull |
| Gold to SP 500 Ratio Flashing Major Buy Signal |
| Since 1971 when President Nixon allowed the dollar’s purchasing power to sink and asset prices to rise exponentially:
The S&P 500 Index has risen from 100 to 2,480
Gold prices have risen from $42 to $1,300.
Most consumer prices have risen substantially.
S. Government official national debt has increased from $400 billion to $20 trillion.
S. government expenses, and welfare, warfare and entitlement programs have rapidly increased.
Examine the 46 year log scale graph of the S&P 500 Index and obsThursday, August 31, 2017 |
|
| Sprott Money |
| “What, Me Worry” Markets - Gary Christenson |
| Mad Magazine introduced Alfred E. Neuman (What, Me Worry?) in the
1950s. He did NOT become a central banker. That is “fake news.”
Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, created “What,
Me Worry?” markets after the 2008 crash. There has been little worry
since the November election, until now. But the market worry level may
have increased. Changes between highs and lows in two days – until time
of this writing:
Date Aug. 8 Aug. 10
DOW Sunday, August 13, 2017 |
|
| Jason Hamlin - Gold Stock Bull |
| “What, Me Worry” Markets |
| Mad Magazine introduced Alfred E. Neuman (What, Me Worry?) in the 1950s. He did NOT become a central banker. That is “fake news.”
Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, created “What, Me Worry?” markets after the 2008 crash. There has been little worry since the November election, until now. But the market worry level may have increased. Changes between highs and lows in two days – until time of this writing:
Date Aug. 8 Aug. 10
DOW Friday, August 11, 2017 |
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| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| The Last Time Stocks Were This Expensive Was… March 2000 |
| Over 99% of investors continue to live in delusion.
That delusion is that stocks are NOT in a bubble.
They are. In fact, it’s arguably about to become the biggest stock bubble in history.
According to John Hussman, stocks have been more expensive based on median valuations only ONCE before in history.
That was the week of March 24 2000… right around the absolute PEAK of the Tech Bubble.
Here’s Hussman’s chart:
Here’s what came next for stocks…
A Crash is coming…
And smart investors will use itTuesday, August 1, 2017 |
|
 | Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan |
| The Mother Of All Bubbles: “This Unsustainable System Will F... |
| This report was originally published by Adam Taggart at PeakProsperity.com
What To Do With Your Cash?
By Adam Taggart
Have you moved a material percentage of your financial portfolio to cash? Have you become so concerned about the meteoric ramp upwards in asset prices that you find it wiser instead to move to the sidelines, build “dry powder”, and wait to re-enter the markets at saner valuations?
If so, you have my sympathies.
The past 5+ years have been brutal for savers pursuing this strategyMonday, July 24, 2017 |
|
 | Michael J. Kosares - USA Gold |
| Hussman posts pension system tsunami warning |
| Stalling engines: The outlook for U.S. cconomic growth your long-term investment portfolio
Advisor Perspectives/John Hussman/4-3-2017
“I’ve detailed this dynamic extensively in the financial markets. Given present valuation extremes, the skateboard is so far ahead of the car that we expect S&P 500 annual nominal total returns to average just 0.6% over the coming 12-year period, even if underlying economic growth accelerates to historically normal rates. Combine that with depressed interest rateThursday, April 6, 2017 |
|
| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Margin Debt Hits Record High Coinciding With Extreme Consumer Confidence: Analysts Say “Don’t Worry” |
| The Wall Street Journal reports Margin Debt Hit an All-Time High in February. Given that Margin debt has a history of peaking right before financial collapses this seems like a warning to me but analysts say it’s different this time.
Margin debt climbed to a record high in February, a fresh sign of bullishness for flummoxed investors trying to navigate the political and economic crosscurrents driving markets.
The amount investors borrowed against their brokerage accounts climbed to $528.2 billThursday, March 30, 2017 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Consumer Sentiment Statistical Noise: Modern Day Snake Oil |
| Hooray! On March 17, the widely-followed University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a 17-year high.
The Fed and most of mainstream media believe consumer sentiment relates to consumer spending. It’s one of those beliefs that is bandied about that no one seems to have thoroughly investigated.
Last week, John Hussman posted an interesting chart comparing consumer sentiment to the stock market. But let’s dive deeper. Specifically, let’s see how sentiment does or doesn’t relate to retail saTuesday, March 21, 2017 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| ECB Declares Victory Over Deflation: Hallelujah! |
| ECB President Mario Draghi Declares Victory Over Deflation.
That’s much like shouting hallelujah when you miss the game-winning field goal.
Mario Draghi has declared victory against deflation and moved a step towards ending the European Central Bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy, sending the euro and German bond yields higher as investors bet on the end of crisis-era stimulus measures.
Facing growing pressure from monetary hawks in Germany, the ECB president said the bank decided to change itsThursday, March 16, 2017 |
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| Mark O'Byrne - gold.ie |
| Most Overvalued Stock Market On Record — Worse Than 1929 |
| Stock Market Most Overvalued On Record — Worse Than 1929?
The US stock market today has never been more dangerous and overvalued, according to respected Wall Street market analyst John Hussman.
Indeed, Hussman goes as far as to say that “this is the most dangerous and overvalued stock market on record — worse than 2007, worse than 2000, even worse than 1929” as reported by Marketwatch.
For some months now, Hussman of Hussman Funds’ has been warning in his research that investors are ignoring exWednesday, March 15, 2017 |
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