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Fall officially began on September 21, but it's not just leaves that
are cascading downward. In the few market days of the new season, precious
metals prices have seen significant drops, some 11% for gold and 31% for
silver. In its lurch downward, gold plowed through support levels at $1,750,
$1,700, and $1,645 an ounce. I'm sure many readers are concerned.
After all, by the time gold put in its recent peak on August 22, it
had logged a stunning 44% appreciation in calendar year 2011. And even after
its recent tumble, the metal is still 22% higher than it was on January 27,
the 2011 low. Therefore, some may conclude that gold has further to fall, and
that the descent could be steep.
Given this anxiety, it might be helpful to summarize some factors we
see impacting prices. Emotions loom large in the financial world, and it is
easy to lose one's focus during periods of uncertainty. From as rational a
perspective as I can gain during these irrational times, here is my view on
why precious metals have recently pulled back so violently:
Market Technicals. Given the swift rise of gold and silver during
the first half of 2011, precious metals were due for a correction
- especially following the parabolic increases that we saw in August.
Markets never go up in a straight line, and often the biggest downward
movements occur in bull markets. These sharp movements are common in gold,
especially during short periods of financial panic. For instance, gold fell
more than 25% in the second half of 2008, and almost 15% from February to
April 2009. Yet after the dust settled in those earlier corrections, gold
resumed its upward march with even more gusto.
The progressive rise in margin requirements is another technical
factor that has weighed on gold and silver. In recent months, many of the
exchanges that offer margin accounts for metals futures contracts have made
it significantly more expensive to hold those positions to maturity. This has
caused many forced liquidations, putting downward pressure on prices. Many
have even speculated that that these dramatic changes in margin requirements
were deliberately planned to undermine confidence in gold as a safe haven
asset.
Recession Risk. Recently, it has become clearer to more people that the economy
is not recovering. Just last week, Fed Chairman Bernanke offered his most
gloomy economic outlook since 2009. Many people recognize however that the
Fed Chairman is sugar coating the truth and that the real economy is actually
even worse. Some believe we are headed for a full-blown depression. In such
conditions, liquid cash becomes king and, typically, commodities fall. In
this respect, silver, which has more industrial use than gold, can be
expected to fall faster in the short term.
But even gold can be expected to fall under these circumstances,
especially if official inflation reports stay relatively calm. Unfortunately,
what the markets have yet to grasp is that this time, recession will likely
be accompanied by high inflation and a risk of currency collapse. To
investors who understand this logic, precious metals are still highly
attractive.
Liquidations. It has been rumored
that some major investors, including hedge funds, have liquidated large
precious-metal positions in recent weeks. Many of these investors were likely
sitting on large gains in gold & silver, but with the broader equities
markets taking a tumble, they may have decided to lock in profits to offset losses
in other positions.
Recently, as political and banking problems have loomed larger,
liquidity has become a primary factor in determining investment decisions. In
other words, big investors are just trying to cover their debts instead of
investing for the long term.
The Greek Bailout Plan. Many investors seem to have placed great hope in the recently
announced Greek bailout plan to solve the sovereign debt crisis, driving down
their appetite for gold as a long-term safe haven. This is overly optimistic.
An orderly Greek default is not in our future. The German plan is a poor
imitation of the Fed's "extend and pretend" policy that was the
basis of TARP, also known as the bank bailouts. It is likely that when
markets perceive the gaping holes in the plan, fears of a currency crisis
will return, and gold will benefit accordingly.
US Dollar Strength. As
it has so often in the past, the US dollar has gained strength in the early
days of an economic slowdown. This has put downward pressure on the price of
precious metals. We believe that dollar strength is a temporary phenomenon,
for reasons with which our readers are quite familiar.
Central Bank Intervention. Central bankers have long been embarrassed by the price of gold,
which exposes their surreptitious currency debasement. For many years, the
central banks of major debtor countries have sought, via IMF intervention
under Central Bank Gold Agreements I and II, to magnify any natural market
volatility in order to dispel the perception that precious metals can be a
superior store of wealth. Although the central banks of surplus nations are
accumulating gold, it is possible that the IMF is acting still to magnify any
market price volatility.
While some or all of the above factors may have contributed to the
recent fall in precious metals prices, investors continue to face the
prospect of a currency crisis that will cause gold & silver to soar. Even
at $1,600 an ounce, gold is still only at some 64 percent of its all-time
1980 inflation-adjusted high. Readers should consider these factors before
selling their holdings of precious metals and capitulating to the eradication
of their wealth by central banks.
Only time will tell how far precious metals
will fall. But if we are correct and gold reaches into the many thousands of
dollars per ounce, our future selves will care little whether we bought at
the absolute bottom. We will just take comfort in having bought.
Click here to learn more about Euro Pacific's gold
& silver investment options.
For a great primer on economics, be sure to
pick up a copy of Peter Schiff's hit economic parable, How an Economy Grows and Why It
Crashes
John
Browne
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
John Browne is a former member of the UK Parliament
and a current senior market strategist for Euro Pacific Capital. Click here to learn more about Euro
Pacific's gold & silver investment options. For a great primer on
economics, be sure to pick up a copy of Peter Schiff's hit economic parable, How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes
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