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There are 2,286
republican delegates. It takes 1,144 delegates to win the Republication
nomination. With four candidates remaining, many are wondering about the
likelihood of a brokered convention where no candidate wins in the first
round.
Conventional wisdom suggests there will not be a brokered convention. From
where I sit, one is increasingly likely.
Following is a table of delegates won so far (totals from Real Clear Politics Delegate
Count), plus my projections of all primaries and caucuses
through Super-Tuesday on March 6 (based on recent polls).
State
|
Primary
|
Count
|
Romney
|
Santorum
|
Gingrich
|
Paul
|
Total to Date
|
-
|
243
|
99
|
47
|
32
|
20
|
Iowa
|
Jan 3
|
28
|
6
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
New Hampshire
|
Jan 10
|
12*
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
South Carolina
|
Jan 21
|
25
|
2
|
0
|
23
|
0
|
Florida
|
Jan 31
|
50*
|
50
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Nevada
|
Feb 4
|
28
|
14
|
3
|
6
|
5
|
Minnesota
|
Feb 7
|
40
|
2
|
17
|
1
|
4
|
Colorado
|
Feb 7
|
36
|
9
|
17
|
2
|
1
|
Maine
|
Feb 11
|
24
|
9
|
3
|
0
|
7
|
Michigan
|
Feb 28
|
30*
|
13
|
11
|
2
|
4
|
Arizona
|
Feb 28
|
29
|
29
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Washington
|
Mar 3
|
43
|
13
|
17
|
5
|
8
|
Georgia
|
Mar 6
|
76
|
19
|
22
|
27
|
8
|
Ohio
|
Mar 6
|
66
|
19
|
27
|
13
|
7
|
Tennessee
|
Mar 6
|
58
|
16
|
25
|
7
|
10
|
Virginia
|
Mar 6
|
49
|
49
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Oklahoma
|
Mar 6
|
43
|
11
|
18
|
9
|
5
|
Massachusetts
|
Mar 6
|
41
|
28
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
Idaho
|
Mar 6
|
32
|
32
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
North Dakota
|
Mar 6
|
28
|
10
|
12
|
3
|
3
|
Alaska
|
Mar 6
|
27
|
10
|
11
|
3
|
3
|
Vermont
|
Mar 6
|
17
|
11
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
Super Tuesday Est
|
Mar 6
|
782
|
359
|
202
|
104
|
72
|
If Paul Wins Idaho
|
Mar 6
|
782
|
327
|
202
|
104
|
104
|
* States penalized half of their delegates.
Thru Super-Tuesday Scenarios
Romney 359 Others 423 (Romney wins Idaho)
Romney 327 Others 455 (Romney loses Idaho)
Notes
1.
I assigned delegates by expected percentages based
on recent polls except in winner-take-all setups. All state delegates were
assigned to the above four candidates.
2.
In no instance did I assume Romney would do worse
than his most recent polls. In several instances I bumped up Romney's poll
percentages substantially.
3.
Points one and two were not done to favor Romney per
se, but rather to to give a modest boost to the prevailing
idea there would not be a brokered convention.
Michigan Prediction
30 Delegates
Percent: Romney-40% Santorum-35% Gingrich-8% Paul-12%
Delegates: Romney-13 Santorum-11 Gingrich-2 Paul-4
Real Clear Politics Michigan Primary Poll
Arizona Prediction
29 Delegates
Arizona is "Winner Take All"
Romney wins all 29 Delegates
Real Clear Politics Arizona Primary Poll
Washington Prediction
43 Delegates
Percent: Romney-30% Santorum-38% Gingrich-12% Paul-17%
Delegates: Romney-13 Santorum-17 Gingrich-5 Paul-8
Real Clear Politics Washington Caucus Poll
Georgia Prediction
76 Delegates
Percent: Romney-24% Santorum-26% Gingrich-33% Paul-10%
Delegates: Romney-19 Santorum-22 Gingrich-27 Paul-8
Real Clear Politics Super Tuesday Poll (Georgia, Ohio,
Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Vermont)
Ohio Prediction
66 Delegates
Percent: Romney-26% Santorum-38% Gingrich-19% Paul-10%
Delegates: Romney-19 Santorum-27 Gingrich-13 Paul-7
Tennessee Prediction
58 Delegates
Percent: Romney-26% Santorum-40% Gingrich-12% Paul-16%
Delegates: Romney-16 Santorum-25 Gingrich-7 Paul-10
Vanderbilt University Tennessee Primary Survey
Virginia Prediction
49 Delegates
Romney wins all 49 Virginia delegates.
Virginia has a proportional allocation with a twist. Should any candidate
take 50% in a district, the candidate will all votes in the district. In a display of complete ineptitude, Santorum
and Gingrich failed to collect and turn in enough signatures on time and are
not on the ballot. Romney is currently polling about 53% and Paul 23%, but
Paul can only win delegates if he outright wins a district.
Oklahoma Prediction
43 Delegates
Percent: Romney-23% Santorum-42% Gingrich-20% Paul-9%
Delegates: Romney-11 Santorum-18 Gingrich-9 Paul-5
Massachusetts Prediction
41 Delegates
Percent: Romney-64% Santorum-16% Gingrich-6% Paul-8%
Delegates: Romney-28 Santorum-8 Gingrich-2 Paul-3
Idaho Prediction
32 Delegates
Romney wins all 32 Idaho delegates
January Straw Poll Results Romney-34%
Santorum-10% Gingrich-12% Paul-43%
February Straw Poll Results Romney-45.4% Paul
42.7%
A third straw poll will be held March 1-3 and my answer may change based on
the results of that poll.
Ron Paul or Mitt Romney will likely take all of the delegates based on the
explanation below. Whether or not Paul or Romney takes all the votes depends
entirely on whether or not Gingrich or Santorum can win any counties which at
this time looks doubtful.
Idaho Caucus Explanation:
Voters will go to
locations for their county and use ballots or tokens to support a candidate
on Tuesday, March 6th. There are five candidates for Idaho voters to choose
from and they will keep voting until a winner is selected.
In each round the candidate with the fewest votes or anyone with less than
15% is out of the race. The voting ends at the county level when there is a
final vote for two candidates or one has more than 50% of the vote for that
county.
The delegates assigned for that county will then represent the winning candidate.
Counties will report their winner to the state office in Boise. If one
candidate has more than 50% of the vote for all of Idaho, they get all 32
delegates. Otherwise, the candidates split delegates
they won in each county
I cannot find any
recent polls for North Dakota, Alaska, or Vermont. Romney should do extremely
well in Vermont and fair at best in North Dakota and Alaska.
North Dakota Prediction
28 Delegates
Percent: Romney-35% Santorum-40% Gingrich-10% Paul-10%
Delegates: Romney-10 Santorum-12 Gingrich-3 Paul-3
Alaska Prediction
27 Delegates
Percent: Romney-35% Santorum-40% Gingrich-10% Paul-10%
Delegates: Romney-10 Santorum-11 Gingrich-3 Paul-3
Vermont Prediction
17 Delegates
Percent: Romney-64% Santorum-16% Gingrich-6% Paul-8%
Delegates: Romney-11 Santorum-4 Gingrich-1 Paul-1
How Ron Paul Can Throw a Big Wrench Into Romney's Campaign
I purposely bumped up Romney's percentages to see if a brokered convention
would still be possible. I also awarded Romney all 32 delegates in Idaho even
though that race is a statistical dead-heat with Ron Paul.
If Ron Paul wins Idaho, and the rest of my numbers above are close, the odds
of a brokered convention are well above 50 percent in my estimation. There
may be a brokered convention anyway, provided Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich
stay in to the end.
Fuzzy Math
The New York Times discusses The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math.
There are 2,286
delegates to the Republican National Convention, of which 1,144 are required
to clinch a majority. The Web site TheGreenPapers.com, which has extensive
information on delegate-selection procedures in each state, divides them into
two broad categories, what it calls “hard” and
“soft.” Hard delegates are formally bound to a candidate on at
least the first ballot at the convention, while soft delegates are not.
Although this is a useful conceptual framework, it probably simplifies things
too much. Instead, Republican delegates exist along something of a spectrum
between bound and unbound, pledged and unpledged, hard and soft.
Contributing to the confusion is that there are a series of three
interrelated ideas about delegates which are often treated as
interchangeable, even though they are not:
Bound vs. Unbound Delegates. Is the
delegate officially bound to a particular candidate on at least the first
ballot at the convention?
Pledged vs. Unpledged Delegates.
Whether or not she is formally bound to a candidate, will the
delegate’s candidate preference be known in advance of the convention
and reported upon by the news media? .
Elected vs. Selected Delegates. Was
the delegate selected through some relatively direct means, such as based on
the popular vote in the state’s primary? Or through some indirect
means, like through the series of conventions that often take place in caucus
states, and which may not correspond to the popular vote there?
Category of Delegates
Legal Challenges on the Way
I did not take any of the bound, unbound, super-delegate counts into
consideration. However, I was rather generous to Romney in other ways.
Moreover, there are legal challenges pending in Arizona and Florida.
Winner-Take-All primaries are a violation of Republican National Committee
rules if held before April 1. As it stands, Romney 50 Florida delegates and
29 Arizona delegates that could dramatically change the totals.
Should Romney loses those challenges and also lose Idaho, a brokered
convention would be all but certain.
If Wishes Were Fishes
If wishes (mine) were fishes, then Ron Paul would win the nomination
outright. A more realistic wish is for a brokered convention because Romney,
Santorum, and Gingrich are all likely to lose to Obama.
I believe Paul would defeat Obama although polls don't currently support that
idea.
Republicans Need to Face the Facts
Of the four candidates, only Ron Paul balances the budget, only Ron Paul
wants to stop the war-mongering, only Ron Paul does not alienate the majority
of women, only Ron Paul can ignite a fire in independents, and independents
(not the radical right), are the key to this election.
Republicans are not going to vote for Obama so appealing to the far right
makes little sense in terms of an overall strategy. Moreover, independents
are likely horrified by the war-mongering and misguided statements on
religious and social issues of all the candidates but Paul.
If Republicans lose this election, it will be because they all outdid each
other in foolish attempts to appeal to the far right on issues where a huge
majority of the population of the US is in the middle.
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