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Traders, investors, and those men and
women on the street who pay attention to this decades-long saga ask the
question: How does this end and when? If we all knew the perfect answer, we
could trade and invest on that knowledge and earn a gazillion dollars.
Reality says that this is impossible to forecast, but being the opinionated
vocal people that we are, we intend to take a stab at it and try to make
sense of a really squirrely international mess that’s literally been an
on-going paper-printing scam for a long, long time.
For one to understand this discussion we
have to be clear as to how the main players think in this drama. How
do they react to events that move the news and markets? How do they react to
the social behavior of national and global citizens?
Our Northern Advisor, (who is
blessed with the brains of three geniuses) has covered the topics on those in
authority in politics, universities, think-tanks, military, central/global
bankers and corporate chieftains. He has taken the time to train me over and
over with examples and explanations as to how these insidious creatures think
and behave.
We are not saying this power group is
all crazy but there is a remarkable nutty similarity, a common thread, within
their collective minds. The definition of psychopaths is printed below
from the free encyclopedia, Wikipedia.
“Psychopathy from the Ancient
Greek "psyche," …soul, mind and, "pathos"
-suffering, disease, (a) condition is a personality disorder that has been
variously described as characterized by shallow emotions (in particular
reduced fear), stress tolerance, lacking empathy, coldheartedness,
lacking guilt, egocentricity, superficial charm, manipulativeness,
irresponsibility, nonplanfulness, impulsivity, and
antisocial behaviors such as a parasitic lifestyle and criminality. There is
no consensus about the symptom criteria and there are ongoing debates
regarding issues such as essential features, causes, and the possibility of
treatment.”
In our view there is no treatment for
this kind of insanity.
Does this description ring a bell? Does
this interpretation define many of those in supreme authority within the
ranks of politics, universities, think-tanks, military, central/global
bankers and corporate chieftains? It’s so obvious; it sticks out like a
sore thumb. Of course it is quite unfair to throw an insanity blanket
over the entire group, but when reading this definition, we can start naming
names as fast as we can say them.
Our Northern Advisor told us the
national leaders of most countries throughout the world exhibit some, or many
of these negative traits. Why? Because statistically those are the common
traits that get them elected, or appointed to those high positions in the
first place.
The criticisms most appropriate for
these leaders in my opinion would be: shallow emotions, lack of empathy,
coldhearted, lack of guilt, charmingly manipulative and pathological liars.
Most important of all: they are
parasites from day one and have no concern with embarking upon a lifetime of
criminal activities and law-breaking. Normally, these people are crafty and
treacherous enough to persuade others to do their dirty work and thus avoid
prosecution. But full-fledged dictators like the old communist leaders and
the current Russian prime minister, Putin, are right up there with the best
of ‘em. That bunch does not even bother to
hide their nefarious events but instead just rule with an iron fist and “disappear” those that get in the way.
Obviously a long laundry list of South
American, Asian and African leaders, despots, thugs and criminals would also
make this hit parade of not-so-very-nice-people. Pick the top ten nations in
this world as to population, land size, GDP, and size of military and you’ll
see a fine and exemplary collection of those we’re watching in this
discussion.
Now that we understand their mentality,
what do they do and how do they do it?
Let’s start with the United
States. Our current president and his administration have positioned
themselves precisely to address the One World Order Agenda. The
objective is to smash the American middle class, pushing them lower on the
income scale. By forcing this majority to depend upon our national government
for most of their daily needs, these people become dependent little children
enslaved to the system. They are literally locked-in with no escape.
Obviously, the next mandatory event
required for the One Worlders is the
installation of one single currency for the entire planet. Their success at
this would give the international criminals total control of all money
everywhere with no nation-to-nation adjustments needed. This is a tall order.
While we are heading in that direction, it won’t happen for reasons
we’ll elaborate on later.
This idea started with some gusto when
criminal central bankers were able to succeed in their wish of implementing a
combined Euro Currency and Euro-land economics-politico money nest. So far so
good, but watch this puppy unravel and turn into a rabid pit bull, courtesy
of German citizens who will not roll over for the criminal bankers. Recall
for a moment what happened to some of those bankers in that category in the
1920’s and 1930s.
Those European central bankers are about
to enjoy a major religious experience when the Germans vote no in the 4th
quarter of 2012, or first quarter of 2013. Not only will these scammers lose
out, but they had better become instantly invisible for what comes next.
Europe has a long history of solving these kinds of problems with extreme
force. The next time will probably be quite similar.
However, in the USA’s instance,
the dollar must first be smashed to half its value, which it will, but can
yet retain majority control as The World’s Reserve Currency. The
dollar has proven to be just that with a former reserve majority near 85%,
which in our current economic climate has dwindled to about 70-75%. The
percentage has lowered primarily from new efforts implemented by China and
some rough boys in the Middle East to rearrange the currency business using a
variety of central banker and international trading tools.
Most larger, majority economic
power-houses throughout the world being Asia, Europe and the United States
will have managed to collectively kick their messy little cans into the 4th
quarter of 2012. What happens then could become legendary. These folks think
the old paradigm of “print and spend” using politics as bludgeon
can continue. We say it can’t and the pushback will not make a pretty
movie. We next explain the reasons why,
How It Breaks Down
Their old scam can’t and
won’t last as the beaten-up Sheeple have had
about enough. That pushback alone won’t solve the larger problem. But,
couple that with a collapsed and busted global bond market and crashing
global stock markets? That should finally do the trick.
One of our favorite friends from Zurich
told us years ago that it all ends when the Sheeple
are literally no longer given credit. I’m talking the loss of all
credit here, not just some. For instance, real estate has collapsed as
the bond market and related derivatives have fallen into a pile of burning
ashes. That fire was created by naughty bankers, mortgage underwriters, and
fund traders doing things never before permitted. The grand finale will be
no more, or severely credit cards. Think about that one for a few minutes and
what the implications would be.
When banks were permitted to become wild
traders and fund investors using the “bank’s pass book
savings,” it had to end badly and it did. The interesting
thing now is they are still doing it and the authorities who are bought and
paid for won’t stop them.
So the ending has to be when it all
stops working and skids into the ruins of its own crooked volition. Those
doing this stuff think that it can continue as long as they get free taxpayer
money to re-capitalize their games as our rulers let them do it. So far so
good, but the free money is printed bonds and T-bills. What happens when the confidence
in that toxic paper vanishes?
The larger problem is what happens
when confidence in the confidence games goes away? Guess what? It
has already started. Chopper Ben, it was reported by a trusted fellow
analyst, now has to buy back 60% of his own toxic trash and “mark it
sold.” It’s not sold. It’s back on Benny’s Money
Closet Shelf in “Bond Purgatory” unsold, but marked as
sold. If you did this stuff you would quickly reside in the crossbars
hotel for about 20 years.
You tell us at what price the big unsold
bond breakdown occurs. Would the unsold number be 75% or 85%? Or, would it
take a complete and utter collapse of all major bondholder-buyers crushing
the monster bond-credit markets, which are 70 times larger than stock
markets?
Others who held this crap in massive
piles of outhouse paper (like China) have been moving it into hard assets all
over the world. China is dumping Benny Paper to get rid of it, to buy
and hold real stuff. They are losing this battle overall, but so far have
been quite good at stockpiling gold, grain, crude oil, copper, iron ore, and
military hardware as well as other people’s perhaps better bonds and
currencies.
This drama is one big Dump the Bonds race
played like musical chairs to see who is left standing, holding the largest
pile of Eurobonds, or Chopper Ben’s USA bonds. That loser player (or
nation) quickly circles the drain on a prelude of wrong investment notes, as
the trash ultimately goes to zero value.
The last big attempt to steal more from
the American taxpayers will be Nancy Pelousy’s
super-crook idea of seizing all American pension plans and converting them to
30-year bonds. This enables a grand theft of about $800,000,000 of pure cash,
moving it into valueless bonds with our national government taking it all.
After 30-years, its intrinsic value will vanish. Hey, after five years it
will vanish, period!
We just learned in June that the State
of Michigan, in addition to its 6% state income tax, is now taxing retirees pension plan payments. One retiree told us he
must give the state an additional $4,000 to $5,000 per year to pay for their
overspent messes. Taxes and takings just keep increasing, and ncreasing, on and on. Consumers, traders and individuals,
in an effort to save what they crooks cannot steal, must convert it into some
kind of hard assets for pure preservation.
These pension thefts will be primarily
instigated using capital controls. This is also the way the American gold
hoard will be taxed. When gold and silver sales must be registered and
recorded, they will be taxed into the ground. This happens at point of
purchase but most likely at an individual sale. However, it if is not sold it
can’t be taxed.
Aha! What if that physical metal
disappears into the mist and is traded for hard goods and real stuff? At that
point it becomes invisible and is just gone. What if it’s traded off?
What if it’s reported stolen? What if it’s exchanged for other
stuff folks need to get through the day?
This is the reason we strongly suggest
traders and investors be buyers of these precious metals and take possession
of them. Over time and in historical fact, gold has preserved new beginnings
for families, provided sheer family survival, and ensured that gold holders
could in fact eat. Gold’s value cannot be disputed. There is no
counterparty risk. It is not paper, it is the supreme currency of the world
taken in for exchange anywhere, in any nation, in any venue.
The End Game is a Paralyzed
Banking and Credit System
While nobody knows for certain how much
time we have left, or how long we will have it; by a predicted smash date, we
would suggest the US Dollar is not totally destroyed, but rather cut in half
on a normal fundamental and technical retracement.
This means inflation moving through the
daily exchange process is pure terror, taking valuations of stuff down and
away with prices. Would we see hyperinflation? That definition says
it’s inflation running at an annual rate of +50% or more. If the truth
be known, we think China is probably closer to that reality than most would
suspect. If this happens in America, it could create a bank holiday and a
follow-on, very hard and serious downward devaluation afterwards.
Being highly experienced in real estate
development and related credit, what we have seen already in Hong Kong and
other large Chinese cities tells us this is one dominant facet of
China’s central banker economics that has gone totally out of control.
This is especially true with the hundreds of brand new “see
through” high rise buildings that now sit empty.
With all of that easy money floating
around for real estate, much of it was snatched by sticky fingers and
spirited away to far flung destinations like Vancouver, Canada for investment
in much safer and secure markets. Some went to Singapore and a lot of it
faded into overseas business subsidiaries. Still more of it sits in foreign
banks in numbered accounts, under assumed names.
The usual suspects for hyperinflation
are mostly located in South America. However, as we expect that several
countries there will suffer a similar fate, we’ll also see some new
faces in Europe and Asia learning about hyperinflation first hand. This is
why the Germans are so adamant about not being Europe’s paymaster. They
have long memories and are very smart. The years of 1921 and 1922 are not
forgotten and never will be.
News this week from Spain signals that
that nation is now totally out of control with an estimated capital flight of
50% of liquid assets underway. The economics minister told the world that even
$120 billion of help for their bankers probably covers only 20% of what they
need. He said the mess is way too big to cover. We say Spain is on the road
to perdition and it’s coming very fast. Watch for a descent into riots
and maybe civil war.
Greece is already on the verge of civil
war and Syria already is on violent hits from its dictator.
In Summary
No one can forecast with any sense of
realism when these traumas converge into one giant volcano, but in our view,
it happens right after the American election when Germany’s citizens
vote NO on the referendum designed to give cash and credit to neighboring
nations. That will smash the Euro and Euro-land for sure.
And, in the USA, you tell us when Benny’s
Bondo Scam hits the wall. Our forecast would be
further out than most might expect, but Obama can delay/block it by creating
a Wag the Dog War in the Middle East and imposing emergency
powers. This is what we expect. It is obvious to smart observers that Obama
is war-shopping as we speak.
Iran would be a good candidate as they
have been media-made into the supreme villain. Further, they have lots of oil
reserves to steal. As we write this, the Gulf is loaded with US Navy
warships. Are they on vacation? Don’t believe it. World War III
would probably be short in initial combat but the aftermath could be years of
prolonged civil wars that would keep popping up in nations all over the
Middle East and maybe parts of Europe.
In the USA, we think this nation moves
toward the old tribal and cultural gatherings of old. More and more, citizens
will form groups, mingle and tend to cluster with their own kind; those being
of similar cultural rules, religions and habits.
Large chunks of the United States in
broken big cities and urban areas will become miniature Beiruts;
a region of war-like trauma and perpetual war and violence. If you think the
National Guard, or regular troops can stop it, think again. Big city gangs
are ready to rock and they are better armed than most would realize. While
the rural back country sounds like the place to be safe, we think very small
independent towns composed of folks with similar tastes and backgrounds would
work better.
The one stronger suggestion we would
make is this: do not engage in violence and gunplay with weapons.
Rather vanish into the mist, become invisible and obey the laws. Do your part
by taking precautions, obeying the law and taking care of friends and family.
In summary, the 3rd quarter of 2012 will
be a set-up quarter for those traders and investors moving into positions
that can profit from all this forthcoming excitement arriving in the 4th
quarter.
We strongly suggest that if you are not
experienced in managing big, faster moving messes, it would just be easier to
go and buy physical gold and silver and take possession. This way you
eliminate any counter party risk and if you need some cash later on, the
metal brokers are more than happy to buy it back and very quickly, too. This
trade is safe and liquid.
Most of our readers of these essays and
in our Trader Tracks Newsletter are primarily stock traders and
investors. At this juncture they are wondering and worrying as to when
markets will return to new rallies, pulling-up their beaten down stock
positions. The precious metals stocks (the best of the best) will begin to
react almost immediately when gold and silver begin new rallies. However,
most of them usually take 2-4 weeks longer in a precious metals reaction
before any substantial shares movement. This past week in Trader Tracks,
our list of recommendations week-over-week moved from negative to almost all
positive.
Follow monthly charts first and discover
the best time of year for your favorite markets. Then, work backwards using
weekly charts followed by dailies. For the most part, we have learned that swing
trading (a few days to a few weeks) is easier to manage for us. However, some
traders enjoy the scalping game doing 150 trades each day finishing the
session and then going flat overnight. Find what suits you best and above all
control risk first. The balance of your earnings will often take care of
themselves –Traderrog
Roger Wiegand
www.webeatthestreet.com
Contact Claudio Bassi, at Trader Track’s New York City publishing
offices for a trial subscription. Call
718-457-1426 Monday through Friday, 9:30am to 5pm or,
e-mail cbassi@miningstocks.com
Recommendations made in “Trader Tracks”
are exclusively those of Roger Wiegand and the
publication is also exclusively the editorial content provided by Roger Wiegand. TAYLOR HARD MONEY ADVISORS, INC. (THMA)
LOCATED AT 33-42 61ST STREET, WOODSIDE, N.Y. 11377, ASSISTS IN THE MARKETING
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summary of investments should not be construed as advice to meet the needs of
any particular reader or subscriber. Opinions expressed in Trader Tracks are
statements of judgment expressed at the date and time they were written, and
as such, are subject to change without notice. Roger Wiegand
is not a CFA nor an investment advisor, but a private individual who studies
the markets extensively and offers summary opinions. Before any type of
investment is made, you should always seek advice from your attorney, CPA,
registered broker, or financial advisor. There is considerable risk in market
speculation and investing. There are no guarantees regarding performance and
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AT ANY TIME Roger Wiegand believes it is
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futures contracts may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose a
substantial amount of money in a very short period of time. The amount you
may lose is potentially unlimited and can exceed the amount you originally
deposit with your broker. This is because trading futures is highly
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position in assets having a much greater value. If you are uncomfortable with
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