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50 Years Old
The phrase 'Paradigm Shift' just
turned 50. The
book that coined the
phrase and changed the way
we view the world from a steady, cumulative
progression to a series of revolutionary
punctuations (called paradigm shifts) in between periods of relative complacency,
was first published this month in
1962.
Coincidentally, something
else that also began at
the same time as the concept of the 'Paradigm Shift', according to
the ECB's own historians, was the
road to the euro.
___________
A big THANK YOU to everyone
who sent donations for the fourth
anniversary of my blog! I
have a couple big posts already in the pipeline for you,
but due to delays beyond my control I decided to put up this open forum. You can, of
course, discuss anything you want, but I came up with the topic thanks to a couple of recent personal encounters with the problem of perception versus reality.
One was the case of a person
who is apparently completely unaware that there may be
a vast difference between his own
subjective perception of a situation and the objective reality, or at least the common perception
of everyone else. The other was an encounter with a flaw in my own
perception, which I quickly
corrected. But don't worry, it had
nothing to do with the subject matter of this blog. ;-)
So please feel free to share with us your own experiences
with the difference between perception and reality. And any
of you who would like to argue that perception is
reality, I welcome that too. There's so much information we can take
in today—thanks to
the internet—that shapes
our individual
perception. How do you deal with
it? Do you aim to take as much input as possible from every possible angle? Or do you
believe that the more
information, the more you need
to filter?
Or if you'd rather just talk about gold, here's a fresh item to kick off the discussion. It's a NY Post article detailing
an assessment by veteran analyst for Citigroup, Tom Fitzpatrick,
that gold may reach $2,500 by the 1st quarter of next
year. Now, although the nominal price is low by our
standards, what strikes
me as significant is simply the scale and the
timing.
That is, to see a mainstream analyst
calling for a 50% move within
roughly 6 months in a
major/global market like
gold is pretty robust. And yet it doesn't garner
near the sort of attention that
a similar scale prediction would rouse were it
in another market. I guess reality still has some work to do on public
perception.
Gold
could hit $2,500: Citi analyst
Gold has had a good summer, rising more than 9 percent, but
that move may be just the start,
according to a bullish Citi precious metal analyst.
Tom Fitzpatrick believes autumn will be
golden in the beginning of a run-up
that he says will culminate
with the yellow metal hitting $2,500 an ounce in the first quarter of next
year. The price now stands at $1,736 an ounce.
In his client note this week, Fitzpatrick compares this upcoming rally to gold’s huge move higher in 2007. The report is based on technical analysis of precious-metals market moves that could cause a six-month gain of
more than 60 percent, just
like the bull run five years ago…
Sincerely,
FOFOA
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