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When the
contagion (denied no longer) is systemic, pervasive, broad, multi-faceted,
and ominous in its lethal potential, perhaps one can calmly conclude that the
system is merely adjusting to a total change in the seas. NO WAY!!! Without much doubt
whatsoever, Bear Stearns is GROUND ZERO for the bond market firestorm. BS was
forced to extend $3.2 billion in loans to its hedge fund clients, who
attempted to liquidate but could not. That represents 25% of the BS entire
capital. Don’t worry. Both hedge funds will eventually die, but when
they do, BS will possibly die with them. A few months time is all they
bought. Call it a STAY OF EXECUTION in legal parlance. With great amusement
on my end, reaction to the denial of contagion, the claimed containment of
the subprimes, the assurance of no spillover into other arenas, housing recovery in the
spring, capex from corporations leading the
recovery, these have been met with my disgust, outbursts of laughter, and
dismay that such broad deception and misrepresentation can pass as journalism
and economic analysis. Without doubt, the economics profession is replete
with more harlots than Piccadilly
Square or Battery Park or any fine district in Copenhagen. Instead,
their analysis and forecasts should be labeled what
they are, bold promotion marred by giant lies.
Some old
lessons were learned long ago when listening to Wall Street and the US
Federal Reserve. Whatever topic they discuss, therein lies
the problem. Ignore their words and focus on their topics. They cannot avoid
discussion of their primary concern, distress, worst fears, and outright
trepidation. Whatever they deny most strenuously, vehemently, and frequently,
that is what will occur with the greatest of impact and damage. Whatever is
boasted as a systemic strength and advantage, quickly discount it as only a
fleeting factor to wither away within months. They scale slowly into reality,
kicking and screaming, only when they are confronted with the obvious. They
are last to detect true conditions. That is their other job, in contrast to
being managers of the inflation apparatus.
The housing
crisis and mortgage debacle are two sides of the same bubble powered by basic
monetary and debt inflation. Just as the mortgages have begun to reset to
higher adjusted rates (an average of 1.8% to 2.2% higher), the mortgage bonds
must next be reset to lower ratings than ‘AAA’ which stands as an
insult to the intelligence of a warm bodied investor with a pulse. The
significantly higher monthly mortgage payments coincide with the massive
mortgage bond valuation declines. Just as foreclosure auctions essentially go
‘No Bid’ with 90% of the home inventory to move, the mortgage
bonds have gone ‘No Bid’ with those auctions in the public view. Far
more fire sales of toxic mortgage bonds are in trouble beyond what the
plebeians can observe. Next they must work through the phase of $2 trillion
adjustable mortgages enduring a rate reset. Many home owners will face 50%
monthly payment increases. Some will see a double. The bankers made the rules
by which they will suffer. They imposed stiff pre-payment penalties for any
refinance before full term of mortgage loans. They tightened lending
standards to the point that 80% of all first-time buyers are refused loan
applications. Bankers and lenders face a tough decision. Soon the cost of
portfolio insurance will exceed the loss from their liquidation. Then
mortgage bonds will be sold in droves. The subprime
mortgage ABX index has plumbed no lows, lower than last February, the index
measuring that portfolio insurance cost.
For the tenth
consecutive month, the median home price has fallen on a nationwide basis. Aggregate
prices are down 14% from the April 2006 peak. The last time conditions were
so bad, the Great Depression was in full swing. We are now in the midst of
the Great Orwellian Depression, where counterfeit money flows freely (mostly
into wealthy pockets), economic statistics are all rosy (see Wobegon Days), spokesmen from government, banking, and
Wall Street claim both the USEconomy and US stock
market are in great shape, drugs are dispensed liberally upon the US public
(see ‘soma’ in Brave New World), the military is first in line
for money and supplies (largest non-corporate oil consumer in entire world),
public monitors are commonplace, and the majority of the people acknowledge
things are going in the wrong direction.
Bloated
inventory aggravates the housing crisis and mortgage debacle. Both new home
inventory and new home inventory continue to rise. The supply side of the
equation is getting worse. With tighter lending from institutions, with more
caution from buyers, with removal of speculators altogether, the demand side
is also getting weaker. So home prices will come down, like another 20% at
least nationally. Reports stream in that even low-end homes are rising in
inventory, and falling in price. About 80% of first time buyers are refused
mortgage applications. The high end has already seen massive price markdowns
and swollen inventories.
IRONY OF BEAR STEARNS, ODD MAN IN
The most
intriguing element of the Bear Stearns incendiary news recently has been the
inner motive for major Wall Street firms to turn a deaf ear to BS for help. In
1998, during the LongTerm Capital Mgmt fiasco, BS
failed to offer help. So now WS offers them no help. However, although BS is the kingpin among collateralized debt
obligation (CDO) broker dealers, the numerous WS houses have a basement full
of similar mortgage backed securities (MBS) and other CDO bonds. One
really needs a nice cartoon to depict this, but that is not a skill possessed
here. The dozen major houses all share common dry kindling in their basement,
or is it oily rags? By permitting Bear Stearns to set afire their basement
contents, all Wall Street firms are vulnerable at an extraordinary level. BS
is not ‘Odd Man Out’ but rather an insider of different stripes,
disliked, but connected in important avenues of capital flow into toxic
bonds. If truth be known, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs probably own a similar
wad of MBS and CDO. That claim is especially true if one considers the
counter-party risk associated with client hedge funds.
Sadly, the
system will grow much worse, not better. The victims and exploited have no
power. Ironically, the power brokers have a fire in their basement, which is
certain to spread to a grotesque level. The entire asset based bond market
will suffer quantum losses once the rating agencies do the obvious,
DOWNGRADE. We must observe to see how the US Federal Reserve and Dept of
Treasury enable public money and phony money to
offer grandiose assistance to themselves, just like in 1998 when LTCM was
bailed out. Another dangerous signal has been how the USFed
and Treasury are attempting to create new rules to collude for easier money
and debt security creation. A serious fraud has been perpetrated to maintain
value in these acidic CDO bonds. Rating agencies are complicit in the fraud,
coming to the aid of their clients via negligence and dereliction of duty.
A bitter twist
must be described. In the last two years, the degree of targeting by JPM and GSax against their own clients, gunning for their
critical support levels, has become horrible enough to call the parent
creditor brokers as PREDATORS. See Goldman Sachs and Amaranth for a vivid
example. This current drama reeks of irony. Wall Street has permitted
ignition of a fire which will reach their own
foundations and ramparts. One can only wish that our compatriot precious
metal and energy investors did not include whiz kids like hedge funds wearing
propeller hats, who in turn are subject to the dastardly deeds of Wall Street
giants.
In the
Mussolini Fascist Business Model framework, these Wall Street firms are much
like commanders of cannons fired upon the private sector. Recall the
Bolsheviks with naval cannons directed toward the Romanov family in Russia. In
the framework of Von Mises theories, these Wall
Street firms are much like vampires sucking money out of the private sector. The
competing currency war and race to the bottom are vividly coming to life. In
the framework of a colonial time when the previous King George ruled, these
Wall Street firms are akin to aristocrats lording over their castle, seizing
booty as fellow wealthy citizens transport large chests of money via stagecoaches
from castle to castle. With the police, regulators, and courts all aligned to
protect those engaged in large scale theft along the roadways where the money
changers ply their trade, one should not expect any prosecution, resolution,
or change. The power factions will continue to thrive.
In this Fascist
Business Model, the ruling elite have all the marbles, make all the rules,
enforce those rules, protect their friends, collude with fellow agencies,
abuse the power of government posts to further their cause of accumulation
for wealth and power. For evidence, check the court decisions, the regulator
actions (see SEC and CFTC), the lack of convictions inside Wall Street firms
(see Enron, WorldCom, Tyco), the overturned convictions of minor Wall Street
players (see Quattrone), the debt rating agencies
sitting on their hands (see Fitch), the outsized short positions of gold
& silver and other commodities like natural gas, the initial public
auctions of Chinese banks (see ICBC). The gradually realized outcome of the
Fascist Business Model, and why the elite love it, is that the Middle Class
is drained, and the poor remain ever poorer. It is not a coincidence that the
merger of the USGovt and big industry has occurred
while the US Middle Class has suffered a tragic income reduction since the
1970’s. Pay no attention to official income statistics, which are a
woefully concocted spew. They reduce nominal income by a grossly inadequate
degree, greatly distorting any reduction from price inflation. A constant
income over the past six years would have declined in real terms by 7% to 11%
each year. That is roughly a 50% decline in real terms!!!
FAILED AUCTIONS
The Hudson
Institute recently issued a white paper on the rating agencies. It is in no
way comforting. Often confused erroneously with a mission charter similar to
the Securities & Exchange Commission, these outfits are neither unbiased
nor effective. Refer to Fitch, Moodys, and Standard
& Poor as leaders who dominate their arena. My June Hat Trick Letter
covered their utter compromised role. They are dependent for income from the
investment banks whose debt security products they issue ratings on. They do
not look backwards on old debt securities when refining their models, since
they have already been sold. They routinely do not incorporate (ignore) the
debt situation of borrowers. They are late in reacting to changed situations,
like an obvious decline in home values, the collateral for many CDO bonds. The
system is so screwed up, tilted toward corruption of the value of risky
bonds. The lower tier juniors must be jettisoned first, before the higher
tier seniors which comprise 90% of the market. One
would hope that the system would be transparent, regulated, liquid, as well
as fair & balanced. Unfortunately, it is none of the above, the last to
fall being the liquid trait. One
possible solution under consideration is for the Big Three Ratings Agencies
to withdraw ratings of many high risk mortgage bonds and other collateralized
bond securities. If a home auction or mortgage bond auctions attracts no
bids, what is their value? If you cannot say anything good about a bond, or can find no value,
then say nothing at all!!!
Too much
‘scratch & sniff’ lately has revealed that such CDO and MBS
bonds are worth far less than the lofty value associated with
‘AAA’ ratings attached. The odor is of
financial sewage and excrement, not value. Recent attempts to sell $4 billion
in junk mortgage bonds by Bear Stearns, another $850 million in similar junk
by Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan, all failed miserably. Merrill managed only to
unload $100 million of $850M of assets put up for auction sale. One problem
is that the public usually has no appetite or interest in such bonds, even if
of good value. They comprehend stocks. Also, pension funds have wised up, now
realizing they bought a heap of overpriced mortgage bonds in the past, a
mistake not to be repeated. Big Wall Street firms have butchered the balance
sheets of many clients, passing on the junk. Hedge funds cannot be conned
into buying any more junky bonds even at discount, since the discount once
offered is grossly insufficient nowadays. Besides, some hedge funds have
died. Public CDO bond auctions are the chosen route. Therein lies the problem, since public exposure means that the
system must mark down prices. A failed auction means other similar CDO bonds
must be reduced in value. THE PROCESS HAS BEGUN. The ratings agencies will be
last to follow suit, not to be blamed for initiating the process.
Poor Bear
Stearns is in trouble. They were forced to cancel that heralded Everquest initial public stock offering, where scads of
acidic bonds were to be sold to the unsuspecting public. They would surely
have lied on the value in the prospectus, read with magnifying glasses by the
dullard public. Whether the SEC obstructed the IPO or not, who knows? Doubtful,
since Wall Street is so deep into their pockets, that the SEC can seek relief
in the bathroom without usage of hands. THE CRISIS IS FINALLY OUT IN THE
OPEN. Being in public view, being visible to the army of analysts, having
blood on the floor detectible to potential buyers, and worst of all, having
the open wounds so clearly observable that the rating agencies must respond,
THE CANCER MUST FINALLY BE DIAGNOSED IN THE OPEN.
In the United States,
always a sucker can be found. Some are well dressed and well heeled, like
perhaps even PIMCO. They are the Texas State Teachers Union gobbled up some
discounted mortgage bonds. Now Wake Forest University
in North Carolina
is in the process of investing $25 million in discounted mortgage bonds
promising to pay a hefty yield for income. Check the principal in a year or
two guys! It might be down 20% to 30% at least.
HOLLOW PERVASIVE DENIALS
Like peeling
the layers from an onion, removing the various hollow denials has been a
staged process. The denial of a wider mortgage problem beyond the infamous subprimes was the first truly hollow denial to be peeled
back. The Alt-A mortgagors found themselves in the line of fire from resets, delinquencies,
and defaults. Then came the claim that the banks and
large lending institutions could handle the problem. Upon closer inspection,
one can see that at least $750 billion in questionable mortgage toilet paper
has been strewn around the balance sheets of their owners, whose combined
value is in the neighborhood of $850 billion. Then came the wishful thinking that the housing market would
stage a recovery in the spring. Isn’t that when more homes go on the
market, both existing (for school vacation reasons) and homes from builders
(after winter construction)? Then came the absurd
claim that home prices had begun to stabilize and the worst is over. The
inventory glut is testimony to the falsity of such claims, along with the
vastly reduced home buyer traffic flow. Then came an
absolutely absurd claim that business capital expenditures (business
investment) will come to the rescue, and actually lead the way for consumers.
How utterly absurd! A consumer driven USEconomy
contradicts such a claim instantly, as we have seen. Nowhere is there a
‘build it & they will come’ mentality in the Untied States. More
like, ‘if they can borrow, they will spend’ is the motto. Borrowing
funds is a tough sell nowadays. Capex does not
lead, it follows. Income depends on the financial centrifuges in this upside
down USEconomy where the financial tail wags the
aging three-legged dog. The missing leg is the manufacturing sector. One
should note that the denials can be integral parts of the US Mythology.
Obviously, the
decline on the tangible housing side and the bond security side have just
finished the first deadly stages, ready to proceed to the next stage, then to
the truly interesting and challenging phase when meltdown is the topic on a
daily basis. Again, pay attention to the topics, ignore words. It started
with ‘Subprimes’ and then ‘Home
Builders’ and then ‘Mortgage Bonds’ with the next topics to
be ‘Credit
Derivatives’ and then ‘Meltdown’ and then ‘Hedge Fund
Blowup’ and then finally
‘Bailout’ discussed on a regular basis to such an extent that the
enlightened are annoyed, and the tone deaf can hear.
My forecast
stands. With each passing month, my trio forecast looks increasingly likely. The
last two are the latest conclusions.
1)
the bailout will be at least $1 trillion and possibly much more among bond
holders
2)
the housing decline will wipe out all gains in national home values since 2001
3)
all except one or two home builders will declare bankruptcy
4) USFed wants considerable destruction so as to consolidate
the banks
5) USFed wants broad economic decline to usher in the North
American Alliance.
The band of
professional analysts has begun to properly describe the situation, using
words such as ‘tip of the iceberg’ and ‘tipping
point’ and ‘interconnected’ and ‘domino effect’
among others. This will be interesting to observe.
IMPACT ON GOLD
Much depends on
key decisions to be made. Will the Euro Central Bank hike interest rates
again? Probably yes. If so, then the USDollar will
test DX=80 again, and USTreasury Bonds will once
more face a selloff. If truth be known, the biggest
factor behind the May-June USTBond selloff on the long end was the scuttle ditch executed by
China and Russia. The USGovt has little place in making demands to China
regarding trade, yet did so. The debtor listens to the rules, decisions, and
abides. The USGovt displays little wisdom in
deploying a missile system pointed at Russia, when Putin
controls an enormous strategic advantage in energy production AND
distribution. The Druzhba
Oil Pipeline in Lithuania now serves as the first linkage between the Energy
War and the Renewed Cold War. Details are in the June Hat Trick Letter
report. It is not being repaired, so the Baltic States
suffer. Lithuania
supported the US Military deployment.
Will the Bank
of Japan hike interest rates eventually again? Probably yes, but unsure when.
They must. If they do not, they leave their entire economy and financial
system wide open and vulnerable to inflation. Economic growth, monetary
growth, financial market growth, consumer spending growth, these all greatly
outpace the measly 0.5% official interest rate within Japan. Of
course, one should never lose sight of the key subservient role of Japan to
supply the Western world with easy money for carry trades. Without the Yen
Carry Trade, the Western banks would have gone bankrupt long ago.
How much does
the USFed and USGovt want
for the USEconomy and banking sector to suffer? This
is the quintessential question, whose answer might be known only to the cabal
in power, pulling faraway strings tied to US leaders. An astute contact has posed the theory, based upon
considerable observation, that the Dynamic Duo of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs
have undertaken two key and different functions. My reference is of the Evil
Twins. Well apparently, they have two distinct roles which have evolved over
time. ArthurC (friend of friend) poses the theory that
JPMorgan will serve as the ‘waste basket’ to capture the brunt of
the underwater credit derivatives. Since well past a salvageable state,
JPM will serve as the consolidated garbage can that the Powers That Be
require for any and all destroyed financial instruments. The JPM house is
beyond reproach, can easily sidestep audit, is not burdened by disclosure,
can have losses forgiven or bailed out secretly, works for national security
(thanks Security Czar Negroponte), and will never
be coerced into revealing the boils, cysts, and blemishes under the skirt. On
the other hand, Goldman Sachs serves as executor in charge of enacting change
through policy. They boast a growing list of partners sitting in very
important powerful political positions. Some claim GSax
manages the outsourced US
financial operations. The tentacles have extended and continue to extend. The
appointment of Robert Zoellick as head of the World
Bank is the most recent. In addition to Secy
Paulson at Dept of Treasury, we have Josh Bolten as
the White House Chief of Staff.
GOLD WILL SOAR
WHEN THE RESCUE BEGINS. The difficult questions remain which shed light on
when that might be. Will the USFed cut short-term
interest rates if demanded by the bond market? Even if the long-term interest
rates rise in the market more subject to equilibrium forces? Personally, my
preference is to own silver and silver mining stocks. One is hard pressed to
find a story where central banks dumped tonnes of silver bullion. In fact,
silver delivery is so constrained and obstructed, that a silver default is
the present reality in my book. The image of Helicopter Ben showering the
nation with money is not accurate. He and his compromised USFed
institution will flood their banking compromised cousin cadre with money.
When mortgage
bonds are properly price finally, the impact will be huge, extending broadly
to the entire credit market. Why? Contagion
will spread because almost everything in the bond market is connected, via credit
swaps, spread contracts, and an array of complicated derivatives (sometimes
called exotic). Leverage has been abused broadly and pervasively and for
a long time. Subprime and other higher risk
mortgages have defaulted to a degree inconsistent with the value of related
CDO bonds which contain them. Losses
will grow suddenly into the hundreds of billion$ when the downgrades finally
come, when the bond markdowns finally come. Many investment institutions
are not permitted to hold bonds which fall below a certain investment grade. So
sales are almost automatic, forcing bond principal values much lower. Be sure
that the major Wall Street banks and broker dealers are working feverishly to
dump as much of their toxic bond holdings on unsuspecting hedge funds,
pension funds, and public as possible before the great price valuation cuts. Sheer
weight of gravity might run ahead of the rating agencies to pushing the next
lever. The pervasive unspoken fear among experts is the degree of the
contagion. Corporate bonds, junk bonds, emerging market bonds, these are
certain to be detrimentally affected. Insofar as foreign central banks are
concerned, they hold some hydrochloric mortgage acid. They could easily sell
some USTBonds in order to offset some mortgage
losses. Does that qualify as contagion? Sure. Gold traditionally benefits
from the ratcheted degradation of systemic risk.
Bear Stearns
has earned the label ‘Tip of Iceberg’ with full justification. My
view is systemic contagion, not isolated contagion. Any mortgage bond rescue package will render the USDollar
vulnerable to another PROFOUND round of devaluation. Gigantic money
creation adds to the supply of USDollars, sure to
cause an exchange rate devaluation, unless most
other major currencies suffer the same dilution. With the sequence of crises
engineered and papered over, the USDollar will be
mostly 0’s and 1’s soon, and not much value at all. Gold is
counting on that eventuality. Pushing the gold price down will be the sewer
effect from liquidations. Pushing up the gold price will be the heavy
downward pressure on the USDollar.
The big fix is
the national bailout of the big banks after their bond holdings collapse. Gold
investors are counting on it, since the flood of monetary inflation will be
acute, huge, and sure to find plenty of haven in
gold. The USTreasury Bond market might be severely
damaged, the price (and yield) will respond to reduced foreign willingness to
hold. The prestige and reputation of the US$ and USTBond
are sure to be degraded and shamed. Always the flip side, mortgage rates will
rise as the meltdown occurs. The housing market will be slammed one round
after another. The new mantra will not be focused on recovery, but when will
the bleeding end? And when will the bailout rescue be officially enacted? The fresh money in colossal volumes used
in rescue, called monetary inflation by the wise, called liquidity by the
deceitful, will be the harbinger of the march to $1000 gold.
The big
problems are that the USFed might prefer to be slow
to recognize the debacle, the rating agencies might prefer not to downgrade
at all, and the big banks & broker dealers might succeed in containing
their fire for many more weeks or months. Conditions must worsen much more
before the USFed takes drastic action. The
momentum, ripple, and feedback effects have much more pathogenesis to occur. Actions
behind the scenes are almost assuredly desperate. We are close to an event
where USFed has a repeat of September 1998 when
they flooded the system to bail out LTCM and destructive Nobel Prize winner
schemes. In a system dependent upon
monetary inflation, even genius is guaranteed to take the system to the
brink, and to disappoint the managers and investors alike. Even the LTCM
bailout had a secret motive, to cover up the need for a gigantic short cover
rally in gold. Has anyone noticed that the Bank of Italy has no gold to offer
in official Euro Central Bank sales? That is because they lost their gold in
the LTCM fiasco!
TIDBITS
With Asians
withdrawing from recycled trade surpluses into USTBonds,
with Persian Gulf nations rumbling over USDollar pegs which heap price inflation upon their local
economies, the USFed has been forced to monetize
the USGovt federal debt on an increasing basis. Ever
since the Chinese decided to send a message (decreasing their holdings of USTBonds for a month to show Bernanke
they could play nasty with his interest rates), the USFed
is trapped in a minefield with multiple tripwires. Ben has begun to go public
in his reflections of reality, that both the housing crisis has more negative
momentum to suffer, and the household pain from wealth reduction will be much
more damaging. He has yet to publicly awaken to the mortgage debacle and its
devastation. They are two sides of the same fiasco. Some hard evidence of
strain was seen with a recent USTreasury auction. One
went out in early June at a 1.9 bid cover ratio on the 30-year bond. No rally
ensued afterward, rendering all buyers almost instantly underwater. A bid
cover ratio of 2.5x is normal. Bond dealers have
good memories; they will not be burned too often.
Prices for food
cannot be all that bad. Heck, bananas sell for 4 cents each here in Costa Rica. Cantaloupes
sell for $1 only. A full meal with frijoles, vegetables, either chicken or
fish can be found for under $4 at several nice locations, some with a great
upper view of passing pedestrians. Plenty of them are worth the view. The
level of beauty, appeal, and personal appearance is easily 10-fold greater
than in the corpulent states. That makes for high consumer confidence here on
the eleventh parallel, where the long spring rainy season is close to an end.
Pura Vida!
The word for
mortgage in Spanish is ‘hipoteca’ whose
verb form has additional meanings of to compromise and to jeopardize. Hmm,
how true! Another interesting perspective is that a home mortgage is
essentially a leveraged home credit derivative, which does not have margin
calls in mark-to-market calculations, but which can indeed have rising margin
requirements. The M2M would require full payment or additional down payment
in equity if the home dropped in value. The rising margin has come in the
form of adjustable rate resets. Homeowners
have begun to benefit from an education that many novice futures contract
participants receive, namely losing all their money rapidly. They
believed the realtors and so-called experts, that
home values never go down. So this is what Greenspan boasted about on
financial innovation, effective risk offload, and some such nonsense? When
will the Greenspan legacy and reputation be downgraded? Maybe never, since he
offloaded the risk to Bernanke.
THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE
CURRENT CRISIS.
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By : Jim Willie CB
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Jim Willie CB is the editor
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Jim Willie CB is
a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics.
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