| |
 | Antal E. Fekete - Gold University |
The Vanishing Of The Gold Basis and...  |
| The gold basis is defined as the difference between the nearby futures price and the cash price of gold in the same location. A positive basis is called contango; a negative one, backwardation. Since there were no organized futures markets in gold prior to 1971, the history of gold basis is confined to the last 35 or so years Gold futures trading started on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange in Canada in 1971 at a time when ownership and trading of gold was still illegal in the United States. Upon becoming legal the bulk of gold futuresTuesday, January 12, 2021 |
|
| Antal E. Fekete - Gold University |
| More dress rehearsal for the last contango |
| You have to remember that the basis is widely used as a guide in the huge arbitrage operations between gold holdings and dollar balances and in the gold carry trade. To participate in this arbitrage you must have gold on deposit in Comex warehouses. But with the vanishing of the gold basis the profitability of this arbitrage as well as that of the gold carry trade has been drying up, which explains the dwindling of warehouse stocks.Saturday, January 9, 2021 |
|
| Antal E. Fekete - Gold University |
| Forward Thinking On Backwardation |
| .Thursday, October 8, 2020 |
|
| Antal E. Fekete - Gold University |
 The Supply of Oxen at the IMF |
| .Wednesday, October 7, 2020 |
|
| Antal E. Fekete - Gold University |
| Remobilize Gold To Save The World Economy! |
| Let me explain. Gold is the only ultimate extinguisher of debt. Other extinguishers do, of
course, exist but they are not ultimate in that they have a counterpart in the liability column of
the balance sheet of someone else. Gold has no such liability attached to it. Gold is where the
buck stops. It is this propertyTuesday, May 5, 2020 |
|
 | Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals |
| What’s the Point |
| A reader emailed us, to ask a few pointed questions.
Paraphrasing, they are:
Who cares if dollars are calculated in gold or gold is calculated in dollars? People care only if their purchasing power has grown.
What is the basis good for? Is it just mathematical play for gold theorists? How does knowing the basis help your readers? Is it just a theoretical explanation of what has already happened?
Prove that if someone has known the basis for the last four years, he has benefitted.
He also addedMonday, December 4, 2017 |
|
| Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals |
| A Hint of Gold Backwardation, Report 15 Jan, 2017 |
| Last month, we noted that there could be a trend change in progress. Not only are the prices of the metals rising (which is just a mirror-image of the dollar falling, from 27.6 milligrams of gold just before Christmas to currently under 26mg). But the scarcity of gold as we measure it, using the spread between the price of gold in the spot and futures markets, has been rising.
What could cause this? One thing is for sure. It is not about the quantity of dollars. This theory is as popular as everMonday, January 16, 2017 |
|
 | Darryl Robert Schoon - Survive the Crisis |
| 2016 - Gold and Silver Rising |
| A GOLD AND SILVER BOTTOM MAY BE INWe see the surface yet think it the whole; then discuss for hours what we think that we knowIf a stock has "bottomed out", it means it might have reached its low point and could be in the early stages of an upward trend. Investors usually see a bottom as an opportunity to purchase securities when they are potentially underpriced.The bottom is used in technical analysis by defining the lowest level of support when charting a stock, commodity, index or economic cySunday, February 21, 2016 |
|
| Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals |
| Price Moves and Term Structures 20 Sep, 2015 |
| The prices of the metals moved up a bunch this week, with gold + $32 and silver +$0.55. We have seen some discussion of gold backwardation in the context of scarcity, and hence setting expectations of higher prices. That’s good, as the swings from contango to backwardation and back are the only way to understand changing supply and demand in the market.
You should be cautious about trading yesterday’s news. There was indeed backwardation in gold and silver. However, the cobasis is a sensitive inSunday, September 20, 2015 |
|
 | Steve Saville - Speculative Investor |
| The right way to think about gold supply |
| Here's the wrong way to think about gold supply: "Although gold's aboveground inventory is huge compared to current production, only a tiny fraction of this gold will usually be available for sale near the current price. Therefore, changes in mine supply can be important influences on the gold price." I'll now explain the right way to think about gold supply.Whenever I point out that the supply side of the gold market consists of the entire aboveground gold inventory, which is probably somewhereTuesday, September 8, 2015 |
|
| Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals |
| Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report 9 August, 2015 |
| Last week, we left off with this.
“Something is happening with gold…”
It began in Dec 2008. To understand it, it is necessary to understand two principles. The first is that gold is money and the dollar is credit, which currently has nontrivial value. A dollar is worth 28.4mg gold. To understand the second, let’s look at how markets work at the mechanical level.
Regular readers of this Report know that we emphasize the bid and ask prices as separate values. The people and forces involved in theMonday, August 10, 2015 |
|
 | Chris Powell - GATA |
| Unprecedented backwardation in gold, Turk tells USAWatchdog |
| GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk today tells USAWatchdog's Greg Hunter that he has never seen such a long period of backwardation in the gold market. Turk says that "the money bubble" is getting ready to pop. His interview is 26 minutes long and can be watched at USAWatchdog here:
http://usawatchdog.com/prolonged-gold-backwardation-has-never-happened-i...Friday, August 7, 2015 |
|
 | Bill Holter - Miles Franklin |
| Debt is BETTER than cash …Who’s running this asylum anyway |
| Two days ago Reuters reported the 3 month “Euribor” went into negative interest rate territory . In this missive I will try to make sense of this as to “why or how” this could happen. I do not believe there is an answer other than the madness and insanity of being locked in a “short squeeze” room with the exits being blocked.
Over the last three years we have seen gold trade many times in backwardation, James Turk has reported this again is occurring in London. The only explanations for thisThursday, April 23, 2015 |
|
| Darryl Robert Schoon - Survive the Crisis |
| The Price of Gold and the Art of War, Part IV |
| If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float bySun Tzu, The Art of War, 5th century BCWHITHER GOLDAfter the 1999 gold crisis, bankers could no longer force the price of gold lower by loaning central bank gold and selling it in the open market. In 2001, as demand?and the price of gold?rose, the bankers were forced to flood markets with discounted ?paper gold?, gold futures, i.e. paper promises of future gold deliveries at lower prices, in order to contain gold?s risSaturday, January 10, 2015 |
|
 | David Jensen |
| LBMA Implosion By Reversal of its Own Gold Leverage |
|
Discussion notes:
1. Gold Market: GOFO negative, surging gold lease rates, gold price backwardation
1-month GOFO or Gold Forward rate (GOFO = LIBOR - gold lease rate) has
been negative for 30 days now and 6-month GOFO has been negative for
14 days for the first time on record.
1 month gold lease rate surged from 0% on Sept 17 to 0.72% on December
1 - indSunday, December 7, 2014 |
|
| Chris Powell - GATA |
| Gold's backwardation worsens despite rising price, Turk tells KWN |
| Gold's price has been rising but its backwardation has been worsening, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News tonight, adding that while the war against gold by central planners remains fierce, they will lose just as they lost upon the collapse of the London Gold Pool in 1968. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN blog here:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/11/24_L...Tuesday, November 25, 2014 |
|
| Chris Powell - GATA |
| Turk says mining shares have never been been cheaper, mining executives are clueless |
| In an hour-long interview with the TF Metals Report's Turd Ferguson, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk says, among other things:
-- Shares of monetary metals mining companies have never been cheaper.
-- Gold backwardation has never been as severe, indicating massive intervention by central banks against gold.
-- The World Gold Council and most monetary metals mining companies are not defending gold's role as money, nor defending the industry itself, as most mining company executivSunday, November 16, 2014 |
|
| Chris Powell - GATA |
| Fraser Murrell: Permanent gold backwardation means a worldwide financial meltdown |
| Australian scholar Fraser Murrell, a mathmetician and former stockbroker, argues today in commentary posted at MineWeb that, as the economist Antal Fekete has written, permanent backwardation in gold is the great threat to the world financial system, at least as it is now constituted as a fiat money system.
"Sooner or later," Murrell writes, "the bullion banks and governments will run out of ammunition and they will be forced to step back and allow the market to do its thing. Which is to repeaSunday, November 9, 2014 |
|
| David Jensen |
| Gold Manipulation - For Adults Only |
| MP3: Discussion between Jay Taylor and David Jensen
on Monday November 3, 2014.
Topics
1. Petrodollar - Russia, China, and other countries are forced to structure
a new monetary system due to the unsustainbility of the Western monetary system
and central bank policy.
Russia's assets seem to be a target of interest (again) for Western banking
interests (again).
False crisis created in Ukraine by US State Department neocon Victoria
NulanThursday, November 6, 2014 |
|
| Keith Weiner - Monetary Metals |
| A Signal of Coming Collapse |
| I proposed seven drivers of financial implosion in my dissertation. My recent writing has focused on two of them. One is the falling rate of interest on the 10-year government bond. As interest falls, the burden of debt rises. Since the falling rate incentivized more and more people to borrow, the number of indebted people, businesses, corporations, and of course governments is large. When the rate gets to zero, the burden of debt becomes theoretically infinite.
In the US, the downward trend isThursday, November 6, 2014 |
|
|
