| | Published : December 01st, 2008 | THE FM BULLETIN - DECEMBER 1 2008 (PSD-TSX) (STKL-Q) (FM Mining Loupe Vol I, Issue 8) (BVX-TSX) (IA |
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Bonjour, voici une mise � jour de Fraser Mackenzie � propos de Junex. N'h�sitez pas � communiquer avec moi pour plus de renseignements. Dave P�pin
Dave P�pin, M.B.A.
Vice president des affaires corporatives
Junex inc.
2795, boulevard Laurier
Bureau 200
Qu�bec (Qu�bec) G1V 4M7
T�l�phone : (418) 654-9661 poste 225
T�l�copieur : (418) 654-9662
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The FM Bulletin |
Monday December 1, 2008
DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRIES
Pulse Data Inc.
(PSD-TSX $1.70) |
STRONG BUY |
12 Mo. Target
$3.50 |
Market Cap
$91.5 Million |
P/E 2008E: 12.1x
P/E 2009E: 15.5x |
� Pulse Data renews its normal course issuer bid, effective December 1, 2008 and elects to increase the potential buy-back to 10% of the outstanding float of 33.3M shares. The company does this against an interesting choice over the course of action it will take going into 2009.
� There are a number of seismic datasets available that are now being offered for sale at far more realistic prices than earlier this year. Buying one or more of these would enhance the value of the company's data library and, with it, its position as a leading supplier of seismic data in western Canada. But, this course of action would require Pulse to use its available cash and even increase its debt position to make the investment. However, Pulse has substantial evidence supporting the benefits of these transactions in the form of the rates of return it can generate from a data acquisition: about 30% per annum.
� On the other hand, there is a higher than usual level of uncertainty about exploration spending levels for 2009. Under these circumstances conserving cash and ensuring a cushion to maintain dividend payments at current levels may make more sense - or at least be seen as a better option by current and potential shareholders.
� We favour making investments in assets that will generate future returns for the company, particularly when those assets may not be available again at prices that significantly lower the level of future sales needed to ensure an adequate rate of return. We note that PSD's weighted average cost of capital is about 10%, well below the historical rates of return that it has seen from buying data sets in the open market.
� The company will be reflecting on these options as it finalizes its strategic plans for 2009 and beyond. We'd like to see it expand its data library, while current prices prevail. |
Paul Bradley - 416-955-4777x244 pbradley@frasermackenzie.com � John Mould - 416-955-4777x253 jmould@frasermackenzie.com |
SunOpta Inc.
(STKL-Q US$1.90, SOY-TSX $2.32) |
STRONG BUY |
12 Mo. Target
US$6.00 |
Market Cap
US$122 Million |
Potential ROR
216% |
� In light of the current market environment, much of the concern surrounding SunOpta relates to its balance sheet and the company's ability to meet its debt covenants. Although such fears are understandable given the times, our analysis indicates that the company will exit the year onside and realize substantial improvement throughout 2009. We note that SunOpta has also obtained waivers, which carry through to Q1FY2009.
� The most onerous of the covenants applies to the senior debt associated with SunOpta's core operations. The company must maintain a Senior Debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.5 to 1. Our forecasts show that SunOpta will be within this range by year-end, coming in at 3.18x. We expect considerable improvement into 2009 with the elimination of expenditures related to the company's berry write-down, which impacted 2007 and 2008. We estimate that SunOpta can generate sufficient free cash flow to enable it to bring this ratio down to 1.39x next year.
� Management has made it clear that the focus is on maximizing cash generation. This includes reducing working capital and temporarily halting any acquisitions. The company also continues to consider the divestiture of non-core assets as a means of improving its balance sheet and providing additional funds to pursue future core-group acquisitions. We do not believe the market is ascribing any value to these non-core assets and accordingly any divestiture would be accretive to today's share price.
� Lastly, SEC filings last week indicated that insiders (including Chairman, CEO, COO) recently purchased a combined 95,117 of shares (net) at a price per share around US$1.80. This should provide some additional comfort. We maintain our STRONG BUY recommendation and US$6.00 target price.
NOTE PUBLISHED DECEMBER 1, 2008 |
Peter Prattas, CA, CFA - 416-955-4777x251 pprattas@frasermackenzie.com � Kimberly Johnston - 416-955-4777x241 kjohnston@frasermackenzie.com |
METALS AND MINING
FM Mining Loupe |
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Volume I |
Issue 8 |
� Precious metals rebounded over the two weeks ending November 28, 2008. Gold, silver and platinum increased 9.0%, 8.5% and 3.7%, respectively.
� The major gold producers followed the metals as the S&P/TSX Gold Index gained nearly 35% and our Tier 1 producer index increased 20%. Not all equities fared well as: our gold explorers index decreased 19.8%
� News Highlights:
o Following increases in both retail and wholesale demand for gold, the Perth Mint has been forced to suspend orders.
� Watchlist Highlights:
o AuEx Ventures released assays from its Long Canyon joint venture.
o Carpathian Gold updated its resource estimates for the Rovina and Colnic porphyries.
o Canplats released its initial resource estimate for the Camino Rojo property. |
Gary Baschuk - 416-955-4777 x228 gbaschuk@frasermackenzie.com � Andrew Edelberg - 416-955-4777x239 aedelberg@frasermackenzie.com |
OIL & GAS
Bow Valley Energy
(BVX-TSX $0.48) |
MARKET PERFORM |
12 Mo. Target
$1.50 |
Market Cap
$41.6 Million |
Potential ROR
213% |
� On Friday during market hours Bow Valley announced that it had appointed a special committee of the board and:
1. Engaged an advisor to consider a range of strategic alternatives for the company (including a sale or possible merger).
2. Engaged an advisor to assist in the potential disposition of part or all of the company's interests in the undeveloped Peik gas/condensate field in the North Sea.
� The company has undertaken this process as a consequence of the Peik loan facility falling due on December 31, 2008 and the need to restructure the company's other loan facilities.
� With the unsettled credit and capital market environment and weak negotiating position the company finds itself in, it is difficult to project the outcome and resulting valuation of the company. In particular, buyers for North Sea assets have largely disappeared as oil prices have fallen and funding for North Sea developments and acquisitions has dried up. Potential buyers for Bow Valley's assets are therefore limited. Nevertheless in the company's favour is that three of the company's North Sea developments are in production and generating cash flow while a fourth, Ettrick, is to commence production in the first quarter of 2009.
� The shares appear inexpensive on measures of projected cash flow however given the uncertain outlook for the company coupled with the company's credit constraints we maintain our market perform rating. |
Vic Vallance, CFA - 416-955-4777x225 vvallance@frasermackenzie.com � Andrew Edelberg - 416-955-4777x239 aedelberg@frasermackenzie.com |
Ithaca Energy
(IAE-TSXV $0.34) |
- STRONG BUY |
12 Mo. Target
- $1.70 |
Market Cap
$55.2 Million |
Potential ROR
400% |
� Cash flow per share (CFPS) for the third quarter ended September 30, 2008 was (US$0.015), compared to (US$0.008) in the same quarter of 2007. For the nine months ended September CFPS was (US$0.038) compared to (US$0.028) in 2007. The company had no production or revenue and therefore negative CFPS for the quarter and six months.
� After completing the Dyas transactions the company's balance sheet has been strengthened considerably. In addition, Ithaca's capital requirements to fund its portion of future developments costs have been pared. Ithaca's pro-forma working capital based on quarter end data is estimated to be in excess of US$100 million. Long term debt with the convertible loan facility in place is US$61 million.
� During November the company completed the lease of the Beatrice oilfield as well as received approval for the Jacky Field Development Plan. We anticipate production to be 2,800 bopd once Beatrice Bravo and Jacky are tied-in.
� The company is planning to drill an appraisal well to test for the gas/water contact at the Stella discovery and first production is conceivable sometime in 2010.
� An exploration well will be drilled in December on the Carna prospect. Costs to Ithaca will be approximately US$8 million to earn a 29.9% interest.
� We have increased our target from $1.60 to $1.70 based on metrics from the Dyas transaction as well as updated financials. We have raised our rating on Ithaca Energy to STRONG BUY from a BUY.
NOTE TO FOLLOW |
Vic Vallance, CFA - 416-955-4777x225 vvallance@frasermackenzie.com � Andrew Edelberg - 416-955-4777x239 aedelberg@frasermackenzie.com |
Junex Inc.
(JNX-TSXV $1.68) |
BUY |
12 Mo. Target
N/A |
Market Cap
$100 Million |
Potential ROR
N/A |
� Cash flow for the third quarter 2008 was $117,619 compared to the same quarter in 2007 when cash flow was ($171,355). Year to date cash flow is ($128,427) versus ($551,256) for the nine months ended September 2007. The company generated marginally positive cash flow from Brine production and drilling services.
� Working capital at September 30, 2008 was $32 million and the company has no debt.
� Core from the Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures #1 well was sent to the lab for analysis and pending favourable results additional 2-D seismic data will be gathered.
� Drilling at the St. Antoine-sur-Richelieu #1 well was completed and testing of a number of intervals has started. The company expects results late this month or early 2009.
� At the Beconcour #9 well, drilling is underway and the well is targeted for 2000 metres. The company expects the well to be completed by year-end.
� The company's land exposure to the Utica shale gas play offers $47.74/share (fully diluted) of unrisked potential upside. We continue to rate Junex a BUY with a Speculative risk profile.
NOTE TO FOLLOW |
Vic Vallance, CFA - 416-955-4777x225 vvallance@frasermackenzie.com � Andrew Edelberg - 416-955-4777x239 aedelberg@frasermackenzie.com |
Serica Energy
(SQZ-TSXV $0.71) |
BUY |
12 Mo. Target
~ $1.50 |
Market Cap
$125 Million |
Potential ROR
111% |
� Over the three months ended September 30, 2008 CFPS (diluted) share was (US$0.01) (versus US$0.01 in 2007). For the nine months ended September 2008 CFPS (diluted) was (US$0.04) versus (US $0.03) in 2007. The company had no production, which resulted in negative cash flow. At the end of the quarter the company had positive working capital of US$82.6 million (before debt) and debt of US$33.8 million.
� We are currently estimating CFPS for 2009 at $0.06.
� Construction of the onshore receiving facilities at the Kambuna Field isunderway, however problems with access to the property resulted in delays. Full production has been pushed back three months and is anticipated to start Q3CY2009.
� Due to these delays we are lowering our target price from $2.00/share to $1.50/share and continue to rate Serica Energy a BUY.
NOTE TO FOLLOW |
Vic Vallance, CFA - 416-955-4777x225 vvallance@frasermackenzie.com � Andrew Edelberg - 416-955-4777x239 aedelberg@frasermackenzie.com |
THE FM BULLETIN IS AVAILABLE IN PDF FORMAT ON BLOOMBERG AT "MACK GO"
AND ALSO: CAPITAL IQ / THOMSON REUTERS / FACTSET / THEMARKETS.COM
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Fraser Mackenzie Limited T: 416.955.4777 | Toll Free: 1.877.955.4777 | F: 416.955.0203
48 Yonge Street, Suite 1100 | Toronto | ON | Canada | M5E 1G6 www.frasermackenzie.com
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Data and Statistics for these countries : Canada | All Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : Canada | All
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Junex Inc.
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EXPLORATION STAGE |
CODE : JNX.V |
ISIN : CA4818631083 |
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ProfileMarket IndicatorsVALUE : Projects & res.Press releasesAnnual reportRISK : Asset profileContact Cpy |
Junex is a exploration company based in Canada. Junex holds various exploration projects in Canada. Its main exploration properties are HALDIMAND WELL, SHALE GAS DE BECANCOUR, HALDIMAND and CHAMPLAIN in Canada. Junex is listed in Canada and in United States of America. Its market capitalisation is CA$ 32.7 millions as of today (US$ 25.0 millions, € 21.6 millions). Its stock quote reached its highest recent level on June 06, 2008 at CA$ 8.22, and its lowest recent point on December 19, 2014 at CA$ 0.24. Junex has 79 650 000 shares outstanding. |
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