New Gold Inc.

Published : July 21st, 2015

This Stock Could Very Easily Triple Or Even Quadruple

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This Stock Could Very Easily Triple Or Even Quadruple

Wally Forbes: That sounds very encouraging?

Iben: So we're very happy. At a time when they're paying near-record highs for bonds and record highs for art and collectibles and healthcare and tuition, and record highs for the most part for US stocks, we find it an interesting time for them to be giving away quality assets.

More on Forbes: 4 Conservative Growth Stocks Selling At Very Attractive Prices

Forbes: Great!

Iben: In general, we like commodities across the board now and, in particular, gold. We also like infrastructure, whether it's electricity and phones and various franchises that are very hard to replicate. In a world where currency is increasingly not scarce, as the world competitively prints it, we like good franchises that are scarce, hard to replace, and necessary.

I should just start with gold, which is perhaps that most interesting area right now. I think when we last talked we talked about Newcrest Mining (NCMGY), which since then has been flat -- which is a victory for gold miners. They've had a rough time of it. We find it interesting now because everybody was pretty sure that printing a bunch of money was going to cause the price of gold to go up. Since it hasn’t yet, they’ve lost conviction. So we still love it.

More on Forbes: 4 Small-Cap Stocks That Dominate Their Niche And Trade At Reasonable Multiples

But just for variety, let's come up with a new name: New Gold (NGD). We think gold looks good. The fact that it's had a three-year correction of 80% is a good, healthy thing -- particularly in an environment when the cost of incremental new production for the industry has probably gone to over $2,000 an ounce. So, it's pretty interesting to us with the added bonus of this being a time where the money supply has exploded.

The shadow price of gold, money supply divided by the amount of gold the US has, was $400 back in the 1980s; it's now $15,000. They've printed a lot of money. So, you can make a case that the price of gold goes way up. However, gold stocks have had such a big hit, that we think they will do okay even if the price of gold doesn't do much from here. The upside is tremendous if the price of gold gets anywhere near that $2,000 incentive price of production. So, we like a lot of gold companies. But for New Gold, we like the fact that here's a company with 17 million ounces of reserves and another eight million of resource -- so 25 million ounces of gold in this world. That's a pretty decent amount.

Iben: We like the fact that they are well managed. And, in particular, people tend to like companies that are mostly North American, and here's one that's 71% Canadian, and yet it still sells extremely cheaply. So, we like that, too. It’s a good company with a good location, good management, 25 million ounces of resource, and the stock is at very low levels.

More on Forbes: 4 High-Growth Stocks Selling At Reasonable Prices

For the most part, we have trouble finding a lot of well-managed companies, so we like the well-managed part. Then we do optionality-adjusted models. We think that the price could very easily be worth three times what it's selling at -- and that's risk adjusting for the difficulties of being in this business. So, we think three to four times higher than it's selling now is a reasonable objective.

Forbes: Wow! That sounds like a very rewarding potential return.

Iben: Sticking with the resources but in a very different form, the fundamentals for uranium were fairly challenging, three or four years ago. They've gotten much better and are now compelling -- despite the fact that uranium stocks are hitting new lows.

Cameco (CCJ) is one of the biggest and best uranium miners in the world. It used to be part of the Canadian government. The stock is near the lowest it's been since 2004. Now the interesting thing about Cameco is that there seems to be this belief that nuclear power, after Fukushima, is on the way out. The truth couldn't be further from that. So for example, let's say that just the existing reactors stay on and the Germans take their reactors off and the Japanese bring half of theirs on.

Well, for the last dozen years, we have been consuming more uranium than we've been mining because they've been able to take inventories from the Department of Energy, and for 20 years, a massive amount of Russian bombs were turned into fuel.

That program ended a year and a half ago, so the inventories that became available because of the bombs being turned to fuel and because of the shutdowns at Japanese reactors are now starting to get smaller. So, eventually you're going to have to have mine supply equal the demand. This is going to require new mines to be built. The price of uranium, by almost all estimates, is going to have to double to get to a level that would bring on mine supply.

So a good case could be made that the price of uranium doubles -- if not better. The price has started to come up. It did go as low as $28 a pound. Now it's $36 a pound, and needs to get in the vicinity of $75 a pound. We find that to be pretty interesting since not only do we need more uranium to run the existing reactors, but instead of it being a shrinking business, this is a growing business.

There are 60-some-odd reactors being built around the world. It's a growth industry, and it's priced as if it's headed the way of the dinosaurs. For us to buy a company that's arguably the best in the world at what they do at a price as low as it was back in 2004, and barely above book value, is a pretty interesting thing, we think. So, that's also a name we're very high on.

Forbes: Great.

Iben: I could go on a whole day on resource companies, but I mentioned we like other franchises. I can talk about a lot of names, but let's go with a phone name. I think last time we talked, we talked about China Mobile, which had quite a run. Now we'll go with Korea Telecom (KT). Now this one also, back in 2000, was trading at roughly $80. Now it's less than $13.

It is one of two major phone companies in Korea and it is trading at less than ten times this year's earnings. So, we think that in an environment where people are willing to buy bonds that lock in low levels of interest, to be able to pay less than ten times earnings (i.e. earnings yield > 10%) for an oligopoly communications franchise at a price that is down more than three quarters from where it was 15 years ago, is a particularly interesting opportunity. So, that's another one we like quite a bit.

Forbes: Dave, you've once again been very fun to talk with, and I'm sure your ideas will be most interesting to our readers.

Iben: My pleasure, Wally.

More on Forbes:

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Read the rest of the article at finance.yahoo.com
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Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : China | All

New Gold Inc.

PRODUCER
CODE : NGD
ISIN : CA6445351068
CUSIP : 644535106
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New Gold is a gold producing company based in Canada.

New Gold produces gold, copper, lead, silver and zinc in Australia and in Mexico, develops copper, gold and silver in Brazil, in Canada and in Chile, and holds various exploration projects in Canada.

Its main assets in production are PEAK MINES in Australia and CERRO SAN PEDRO, MESQUITE and CERRO SAN PEDRO in Mexico, its main assets in development are AMAPARI in Brazil, NEW AFTON in Canada and EL MORRO in Chile and its main exploration properties are AJAX - PYTHON, BUCK CLAIMS, 3TS, SIZZLER, CC PROPERTY, VO PROPERTY, TAK PROPERTY, MOUSE MOUNTAIN, G-SOUTH, CHUBBY BEAR, LIBERTY BELL, BOULEVARD, BOUVETTE, WIT YUKON, RAM, SLATE FALLS, PROSPECTOR MOUNTAIN, MAYO, DAVIDSON, BLACKWATER, BOULDER CREEK, CAPOOSE, NATIONAL, CORRAL CANYON and RUDE CREEK in Canada and RIO FIGUEROA in Chile.

New Gold is listed in Canada, in Germany and in United States of America. Its market capitalisation is US$ 1.3 billions as of today (€ 1.2 billions).

Its stock quote reached its highest recent level on January 07, 2011 at US$ 9.99, and its lowest recent point on March 20, 2020 at US$ 0.39.

New Gold has 575 460 032 shares outstanding.

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7/17/20092009 Second Quarter Production and Cash Cost Results
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8/14/2008Announces Second Quarter Results & Management Appointment
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11/13/2007Third Quarter 2007 Financial Results
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6/29/2012(New Afton)New Gold Announces Start of Production at New Afton Mine in ...
6/18/2012Anomalies Outlined at Sebba, Burkina Faso
4/27/2012Exciting New Gold Company
4/5/2012New Gold Announces Closing of $300 Million Senior Notes Offe...
4/3/2012New Gold Announces Pricing of $300 Million Senior Notes Offe...
3/27/2012New Gold Announces Launch of $300 Million Senior Notes Offer...
3/26/2012Targets Identified at Rattlesnake Hills Project
2/12/2012Crater Mountain - Extensive new gold mineralised zone
2/2/2012New Gold Announces Record Gold Production in 2011, 25% Incre...
2/2/2012New Gold Announces Record Gold Production in 2011, 25% Incre...
12/16/2011Shareholders of Silver Quest Resources Ltd. Approve Plan of ...
6/1/2011New Gold Closes Acquisition of Richfield
5/31/2011Richfield Securityholders Approve Arrangement Transaction In...
4/5/2011New Gold Agrees to Acquire Richfield Ventures Corp=2E - Adds...
12/1/2010New Gold Monetizes Equity Position in Beadell for Net Procee...
6/1/2009Completes Cdn$1.2 Billion Business Combination with Western ...
5/14/2009aims for major producer status - Midas Letter and Aheadofthe...
5/13/2009Shareholder Approval of Business Combination and Q1 Results
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2/18/2009WTM Discovers Large New Gold System on Hwy 144 Property, Tim...
2/5/2009has a strong beta to gold says GoldSeek.com
1/16/2009Reinhard updates New Gold
1/9/2009Reduces Debt Position by C$50 Million
12/16/2008Shareholder Letter
12/3/2008Struthers has New Gold on his shopping list
9/3/2008Winston updates New Gold Inc.
8/8/2008Allan Barry Laboucan recommends New Gold Inc on BNN's "The S...
6/18/2008Shareholders of Metallica Resources, New Gold and Peak Gold ...
5/12/2008Metallica Resources, New Gold and Peak Gold Announce Signing...
5/9/2008Noteholders Extraordinary Resolution Passed - Meeting Cancel...
5/9/2008Noteholders approve indenture changes
4/25/2008Meeting of the Noteholders Called
3/31/2008Announce Proposed US$1.6 Billion Business Combination to
3/25/2008, Abacus Mining and Exploration Corp. and Teck Cominco Limit...
10/30/2007 Sign Letters of Intent to Ensure Co-Operation
10/25/2007 Completes Acquisisiton of New Afton Surface Rights
7/30/2007Exercise of Over-Allotment Option, Gross Proceeds of Offerin...
7/6/2007Another Milestone in Development of New Afton Project, EP Co...
6/28/2007Announces Closing of Financing Gross Proceeds of C$375 Milli...
6/14/2007Announces Pricing of C$275 Million Debt Financing
5/30/2007Announces Terms of Underwritten Offering
5/30/2007Prospectus Filed For Financing to Fund Development of New Af...
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AMEX (NGD)TORONTO (NGD.TO)
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