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I’ll be
heading out of town early this week as it’s a holiday in Canada Friday
as we remember our Veterans which means it’s time for deer camp!!
Well,
chances are we won’t get any deer, in fact I won’t even go out
looking for any but the time at a friend’s beautiful cabin on the Bras d’or lake in super Cape Breton, Canada is welcome
every year.
A
few of the older boys may head out for a walk, with a pint of rum, while us
younger fellas remain and shoot skeet over the lake with a nice cigar and,
well, likely a rum a well!
It’s
always a nice fall weekend getaway with some family, old friends and new
friends whom all congregate from all over the world for this event which is
fast becoming world famous.
The
women love to get rid of the boys for a few days and the boys really miss
their wives and have to drown their sorrows in cards and much food and the
odd pop, as Don Cherry would call them.
Maybe there will even be a hockey game on in the background.
If
you’re blessed enough to live in Canada make sure to take some time to
remember both those who’ve survived and those who’ve fallen in
wars past and wars today.
It’s
due in large part to them that we enjoy our freedoms today. Not that I agree with all wars, but
I’ll not get into that.
Us youngish attendees of deer camp always rake up the
hosts yard for him and it’s a pretty good Saturday afternoon believe it
or not. Once we’re done
maybe he won’t mind us stealing a few (dozen) of his potatoes for the
many varieties of homemade potato guns who congregate at this special place
for one special weekend per year.
This
will mainly be a chart update and shortened this week as it’s out early
Friday morning and how the week will end I have no idea as of this writing.
Thus
far it’s been wild to be sure.
We’ve got Italy now following Greece, Ireland and Portugal on
the path to the bailout begging bowl.
But as of yet nobody is keen on giving/printing money for them. It’s like a soap opera over and
over again.
Greece,
Ireland and Portugal all spiralled out of control once their 10-year bond
yield surpassed the 7% area and that is what occurred with Italian bonds this past
week.
Developments
out of Europe continue to come at a furious pace and also very unpredictable
which is sending markets around the world higher then lower then higher then
lower again with amazing volatility.
Trying
to trade these movements is not my cup of tea so our swing trading portfolio
remains in cash while we wait for a more certain outcome from the charts but
that can come at any time at all so we have to be ready and watching.
In
the meantime our mining portfolio has been on absolute fire and we’re
also enjoying collecting dividends from our great dividend portfolio where we
enjoy yields of 20.16%, 14.76%, 8.06% and 21.08%.
Swing
trading is my favourite but when it’s not possible we just have to wait
and that’s what we’re doing but as you can see we’re far
from idle and still making some nice passive and aggressive returns.
As
for our largest part of the portfolio, physical gold and silver, let’s
see how they are fairing out so far this week.
Metals review
Since
I’m doing this report early I have no idea how the precious metals will
close out the week but thus far gold is holding up as it should be and
remains within its uptrend channel nicely here.
Gold
is holding above the moving averages and tested and held the 50 day moving
average which coincides with the lower end of the uptrend channel now.
Obviously
the $1,800 level is both psychological resistance and resistance on the chart
as well, but it should be overcome next week sometime before gold heads to the
next horizontal resistance level at $1,850.
All
in all I’m very happy with the way gold has behaved so far this week
thru Thursday.
The
GLD ETF volume was high as gold reached the upper end of the channel above
$1,800 briefly Monday and then it petered off the rest of the week as a
perfect technical consolidation occurred.
Great
action and we should see gold move above $1,800 late next week at the latest,
at least that’s the plan.
Silver
is also doing well here although we are coming up to a cluster of moving
averages and they will take some work to get above as we’ve seen so far
this week with the 50 day moving average.
So
far the price held above the lower uptrend line and closed Thursday back
above the 21 day moving average after breaking below it on an intraday basis
today, Thursday.
It’s
quite nice action to watch really and there is absolutely no reason to panic
if you are trying to trade silver as of right now.
It
think the real trouble will come with the confluence
of the 100 day and 200 day averages in the upper $36 range.
Not
really that it will be trouble, but it may take a couple or few weeks to
build a sideways base in order to build up the proper steam needed to push
past those barriers and move silver to the next resistance level near $40.
The
SLV ETF volume hasn’t been anything special thus far this week but
Wednesdays move lower saw the heaviest volume. I can’t really read much from
the ETF so far this week.
Last
week I talked about how the gold chart and platinum chart were very similar
coming off this bottom but the platinum chart hadn’t quite yet formed
an uptrend channel. That seems to
have changed as of today so it seems that platinum is lagging gold but moving
in similar fashion.
That
being said we’re now butting up against a major downtrend level. I’d love to say I expect the
uptrend channel to hold but with so much uncertainty in the world and this
being such an industrial metal, at least on paper, we may see the channel
break and see some consolidation and base building before we can break above
the downtrend line and then work on the moving averages above.
So
far this week palladium has remained in it’s
nice solid, large uptrend channel but now that we’re near the downtrend
line at $675 I’d expect at least a test of the lower end of the uptrend
channel.
The
50 day moving average is also acting as resistance while the 21 day average
is acting as mild support thus far.
I
tell subscribers all the time that I absolutely love to see corrections and
consolidations in stocks and commodities and indices. It’s healthy and strengthens
said instrument to continue its move higher.
It’s
the times when things continue to move higher and higher daily for several or
many days on end that gets me worried.
Those are the times that profits must be taken, but I realize
it’s not easy as emotions of greed and grandeur take over any semblance
of common sense that remains.
It’s times like those that you need a cool head or
someone with a cool head who’s been there before to help you through in
order to keep your trading account near highs.
Nobody
can ever always get the peak or trough but getting close it not too difficult
if you get a little lucky, and learning to scale out
of a hugely profitable position is also key.
I’m
not sure where that tangent came from but it’s how it is.
Back
to palladium, the PALL ETF volume was pretty stable through the week so far
and isn’t talking to me as a result.
Life’s
funny sometimes. I was just trying
to think about where I could work this last major development into this weeks shortened letter and sure enough I checked my inbox
to find that one bank has failed already this week to join this years list of biggest
losers.
It’s
odd to see a bank fail on a Thursday and I believe it’s the first time
happening the two plus years I’ve been really watching it.
It's
a beautiful thing though as it leads me into this much larger and more
significant bankruptcy perfectly.
Jefferson
county has thrown in the towel and is filing for bankruptcy which is the
largest ever by a county. There
will be many more to come I assure you.
Physical
precious metals, I believe, remain the basis of a solid portfolio and a must
if you want to ensure your wealth as we move forward into more
municipalities, counties and countries going bankrupt and defaulting on their
debts.
Protect
yourself, nobody else will.
To
finish off the week and especially since it’s a week to remember those
who’ve fought for our countries and freedoms and as a new generation is
fighting peacefully for a return to sanity, please watch this excellent speech with an even better
montage of video and pictures. It really does put things in
perspective.
Enjoy!
Until
next week take care and thank you for reading, and thank you for being you.
Warren Bevan
www.preciousmetalstockreview.com
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