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Even in the face of problems at Japan's
Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear reactor following a massive earthquake and
tsunami, Jennings Capital Mining Analyst Alka Singh
takes a positive long-term view on uranium prices. In this exclusive
interview with The Energy Report, Alka explains why uranium demand will increase
globally in the next two years and offers a few companies poised to
capitalize on that need.
The Energy Report: In the wake of the 9.0
magnitude earthquake and tsunami in Japan, how will both the reality of the
problems at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear reactor and the media reports
surrounding the events impact demand for uranium and uranium stock prices?
Alka Singh: Well, I don't see a lot of changes to my model
because I'm still using a long-term uranium price of $75 per pound. But,
there is so much market uncertainty that I put off initiating coverage on
uranium names because of negative sentiments people have surrounding this
sector. I think that all of this is more emotionally than fundamentally
driven. Actually, this is a great buying opportunity to pick some of the
better uranium companies with the solid assets and management teams. But, I'm
just waiting for the market volatility to slow down.
TER: Are some companies going to do better than
others based on their size, their stage of development or their geography?
AS: That's an excellent question. The companies
that are already in production with all their permits and most of their
long-term contracts in place are the best companies to own right now. The
long-term contracts have already been signed, so the utilities are actually
paying the set price for the next five to eight years. Typically, companies
that are already in production tend to sell about 70% to 80% of their
production on these long-term contracts. Only 10% to 15% of their production
is sold on spot prices. So, companies already in production with low cash
costs and long-term sales contracts in place are the types of companies that
you would want to own.
TER: What are some specific companies you've been
following that you think are going to do well?
AS: Some of the producers who will be doing well
would be companies like Cameco
Corp. (TSX:CCO; NYSE:CCJ)
and Paladin Energy Ltd. (TSX:PDN;
ASX:PDN) because they have long-term
sales contracts and are in production. As they are already in production,
they don't have the permitting risk in the equation. You may see regulators
in some countries, including the U.S., take the news negatively. They will
probably tighten the criteria that they look at before approving licenses for
new nuclear reactors, which will impact demand for uranium.
The uranium equities are responding negatively as the
market expects lower uranium demand in the coming years. It's just that
markets will get scared, as they did when the oil spill happened last year.
People will call for a moratorium and there will be a lot of uncertainty in
the near future, which will be negative for the uranium companies. But, don't
forget, when the oil spill happened BP Plc.
(NYSE:BP; LSE:BP)
share price dropped approximately 60%, and then recovered in six months.
TER: Why has the reaction in Germany, which is
shutting down reactors, varied so much from countries like China and India,
which are still moving forward with nuclear plans?
AS: Germany is taking preventive action. The
country's suspending life extensions of 17 nuclear reactors that were
supposed to shut down in 2021 originally but were extended by an average of
12 years based on the nuclear crisis in Japan.
In China, the China Environmental Minister came out and
said that while the country had learned lessons from Japan, it would not
change its plans for a nuclear renaissance. India also has talked about
caution—not dramatic change—and is in the process of trying to
acquire uranium from Australia. Together, China, India and Russia have 42
reactors currently under construction, another 82 planned and 210 proposed.
TER: Does the design make a big difference in the
viability of the project?
AS: The three hydrogen pressure explosions that
happened at the nuclear plants in Japan were in the exterior of the nuclear
reactors. This disaster is actually much different from the Chernobyl
disaster that happened in the Ukraine where no containment vessel was in
place. The Japanese government has done a very good job of managing the
situation. It could end up as a positive, proving that designs of nuclear
reactors being built today are much better than the ones that failed during the
Chernobyl crisis.
It's not as if the Japanese reactor exploded because of an
operational failure. We are talking about a huge earthquake, followed
directly by a tsunami. Even a nearby oil refinery burst into flames and
collapsed. More countries may do stress tests and expanded permitting, which
is time consuming and more costly. But, as of right now, I don't think you
can say this event is an end to the nuclear renaissance.
TER: So, are you saying the impacts are going to be
different in the short term versus the long term?
AS: That is true. The short-term reaction is
obviously one of panic. Over time, people will realize that nuclear power is
the only viable way to fulfill the world's energy requirement. Either you
burn more fossil fuel and pollute your environment or you go for very
expensive wind power and solar power. Hydropower is built out, basically.
Nuclear power is still the cheapest. You can actually produce power at
US$0.02 per kilowatt hour compared to coal at US$0.03, natural gas at about
US$0.05 and oil at US$0.12 per kilowatt hour. So, what do you do? Do you
pollute the environment or do you look for ways to build containment vessels
that can handle this level of natural disaster? I still see the supply/demand
fundamentals as very positive for uranium.
TER: In your last interview with The Energy Report,
you were really positive about the prospects for uranium prices. At the time,
they were in the $60–$70/lb. range. Obviously, that price has fallen in
the last four days. Is this a short-term price impact or will we see
long-term adjustments?
AS: Term markets are responsible for 80% of the
total uranium sold annually, while spot markets purchase from 8%–12%
every year. That's it—that's how small the spot market is. However,
equities tend to react more to the spot market than the long-term market. The
long-term prices have not changed; they are still at $73/lb. It is the
short-term price that has fallen to $60.
The producers or companies actually signing long-term
contracts right now will not be impacted by the spot price. Only hedge funds
and traders—the guys who are afraid of what's going on in Japan and
trying to make a short-term trading call—are shorting uranium equities
on the assumption of a nuclear meltdown as 11 of the nuclear reactors (11 of
the 54 operating nuclear reactors) in Japan are in the earthquake/tsunami
impact zone. Long term, I think that these guys will start closing the short
positions in the near future. It'll be similar to the oil spill situation
with BP.
TER: If this is a short-term selloff of uranium
shares, where do you see opportunities?
AS: This is a great opportunity to buy good uranium
stocks for the long term. Short term, hedge funds could still short all of
these uranium names without knowing which one is better just because they
have the word "uranium" in the name. There could be still some
tears in the market in the short term. However, if you find good companies
that you like with good assets and management teams, this could be a great
opportunity. I am talking about companies with good assets, low-cost
production and maybe in-situ recovery (ISR) production, including Uranium Energy Corp (NYSE.A:UEC) and Uranium Resources Inc.
(NASDAQ:URRE) in the U.S. Their cash
costs would be under $25/lb. compared to conventional operations.
At Denison
Mines Corp. (TSX:DML; NYSE.A:DNN),
where the cost of production is about $45, you don't want to be long. Cameco would be my other go-to company. As one of the
largest uranium producers, the company could gain a lot when the Highly
Enriched Uranium (HEU) Agreement between the U.S. and the Russian Federation
expires in 2013, leading to higher uranium prices.
In the U.S., 104 operating nuclear reactors need about 60
million pounds (60 Mlb.) of uranium per year. But
the country produces only 4 Mlb., which leaves a gap of 56 Mlb.
to be met by secondary sources, including the HEU Agreement. So, this is a
good time to be long uranium producers/developers. Uranium prices had been
recovering in the latter part of 2010 and early 2011 before the crisis
happened in Japan. This gives investors the best opportunity to buy since the
2008 financial meltdown. I can understand why people are concerned; but for a
risk taker, this is good high-reward opportunity.
TER: Thank you so much for taking the time to talk
with us.
AS: No problem. Thank you.
Prior to taking a position as mining analyst at Jennings Capital, Alka Singh was the managing director and senior metals
and mining analyst at Rodman & Renshaw in New
York City for two years. Previously, Ms. Singh was a vice president covering
the metals and mining sector in Canada at Merrill Lynch, and prior to that
she was an associate analyst covering the gold and base metal companies at
Orion Securities Inc. Ms. Singh holds an MBA from Schulich
School of Business, York University in Toronto, Canada and a Bachelor of
Science in geology from the University of Delhi in India.
The Energy
Report
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