Ordinarily, the answer would be “yes,” since we adhere obsessively to a risk management strategy that holds risk:reward constant at 1:3
in each and every trade, from entry till exit.
In this case, however,
we had resolved to let the position run
until such time as it produced a theoretical gain of at
least $5000 per contract. We
are sticking to that
plan for now, come hell
or high water – swinging
for the fences, as it
were, even if it means giving up the $2800 of theoretical
profit that we had within our grasp at yesterday’s lows.
Anticipating yesterday’s run-up, we had sought
to “protect” our
short position in the E-Mini futures by doing a
trade “against-the-box.” To make this strategy easier, we suggested buying, not
E-Mini futures against those
we are already short,
but call options on QQQ. Specifically, we recommended buying June 56 QQQ calls if
the underlying vehicle
came down to a Hidden Pivot target
at 56.02 equivalent to
the one at 1303.25 we’d
flagged in the E-Mini S&P. Unfortunately, it was not possible to initiate
the trade as suggested,
since options on “the Cubes” don’t trade overnight, when the S&Ps were bottoming. So instead of
putting on an equity-option hedge
when the S&Ps were at their
lows yesterday, we were left
naked short the E-Minis
by circumstances.
Screw Risk
Management!
There’s a couple of reasons why we decided to toss the usual risk:reward constraints out
the window. In the first place, the short that we initiated
at 1358.25 seemed like an excellent place to take
a bearish stand. It turned
out to be the week’s
exact high, and we still think it will be
prove to have been an important one. For the record, on May 2 we’d attempted another speculative short at a Hidden Pivot rally target at 1371.25 that we’d identified weeks earlier. The actual top occurred that day at 1373.50, and although it should have been a winner, we stupidly advised a too-tight stop-loss at 1372.25.
This bad advice
would have caused Rick’s Picks subscribers to miss the so-far
peak of the Mother of
All Bear Rallies by a hair-pulling
1.50 points. In suggesting another short from 1358.25 nine days layer, we were seeking
to make amends for blowing the earlier opportunity.
Ask ‘Em Yourself
Incidentally, if you want to find out how successful we’ve been at shorting every Hidden Pivot rally target of consequence over
the last few months, try
asking subscribers yourself in our 24/7 chat
room. Some great
traders frequent the room, and there are usually dozens of subscribers on
hand who have taken
the Hidden Pivot webinar. If you don’t subscribe,
just click here
for a free trial that will
give you access to all areas of the Rick’s Picks
web site, including the chat room and our daily trading “touts.”
One final note: If the futures were to run all the way back up to 1358.25, stopping
us out of the trade, it
is likely that we would
still book a small
gain. That’s because
we told subscribers to take a
partial paper profit early
on in the trade, effectively
raising our cost basis to 1363.00 for any
contracts still held. We also told
subscribers who shorted more than two contracts initially to cover all but
the last third of the position at 1310.00.
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