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All in all it
was a pretty quiet week in the US markets long with precious metals while we
saw a huge and swift drop in terms of US bonds this past week which is not something
we see every day but markets seem to be digesting that news rather well.
The
precious metals still do not looks great here but are getting closer to
finding a low.
Metals review
Gold was flat
for the week having risen only 0.02%. Gold is probing for a bottom here but
I’m not sure one is quite in yet. There has been no volume spike low
yet which is what I’m looking for along with a violation of support
levels to really give the old tree a good shaking.
I
put the Fibonacci retracement levels in as they show good support. And
resistance levels often. Ideally I’d like to see a spike low down to
the $1,575 area, not that I’d really like to see it, but it would
almost assuredly secure a tradable long-term bottom.
For
now we’ve got a flat base building here and a break above and out of it
could indicate a bottom is in.
Either
way you slice it, this area is a great spot to still be buying physical gold
and demand for it has been very heavy lately as gold buyers understand just
how cheap it is a the moment.
The
gold shares are also dirt cheap here and should begin to be bought in many
cases.
Volume
in both the GLD ETF and futures market was pretty steady and average for the
week which isn’t telling me much at the moment.
Silver dropped
a further 1.67% this past week and does not look to be done on the downside
to me yet. Please don’t accuse me of being a bear here in the precious
metals, I’m just reading the charts and I remain wildly bullish for
them in the medium to long-term.
That
said, every market needs to have corrections along the way or else it is time
to exit the trade. Markets need rest which builds strength for the next push
higher and that's all we’re experiencing here although the trigger that
set this correction in motion was blatant manipulation as I’ve talked
about the past several weeks.
They
have won the battle but we are winning and will win the war in the end.
It
wasn’t long ago people thought I was nuts to say gold will trade well
over the $1,000 level, now a move to that area would devastate people. Oh how
things change and the past is so quickly forgotten.
I’d
expect a move to the strong support level in silver near $30 and hopefully a
washout spike below that.
I
put the Fibonacci levels in as well which give us a few other support areas.
Volume
in the SLV ETF and the futures market is average and higher on down days than
up days which says we have further to fall. There is
absolutely no conviction on moves higher yet but that will come in the next
few days to a couple weeks at the latest from what I can see.
Platinum
dropped 3.26% this past week on heavy volume in the futures market but volume
was lacking in the PPLT ETF as not many people are eying this trade.
A
break of this wedge pattern will see the $1,560 area hit easily and possibly
even a move down to $1,530.
Palladium
was smashed 6.64% lower this past week and I totally missed it. In hindsight
I can’t believe I missed the very obvious head and shoulders pattern
but I did. I happens.
The
measured move was hit in only a couple days and now the lows looks to be in
on the measured move basis but we shall see about that very soon.
I’m
looking for a base to form here before we move higher or even lower.
Volume
in the PALL ETF and the futures was very heavy on the huge spike lower
Thursday and quite mediocre the rest of the week. Volume is suggesting that
we could see prices drop further from here.
Fundamental Review
Ben
Bernanke praying on young University children this
past week was pretty sickening. He bashed the gold standard repeatedly and
falsely but one of the strangest arguments he posed was that while a gold
standard may maintain the value of the dollar in the long run that it’s effects are negligible on a year to year basis.
Well
that makes no sense to me. Who cares if we don’t notice much difference
in a year?
I
care about the long-term. After-all the US dollar has lost 98% of it’s purchasing power over
the long-term. He basically says he doesn’t care about the future, only
about the very short-term, like the next election cycle, or his chairmanships
duration.
He
sounds like a politician and admitted he does not care about the monetary
futures of the youth of this world. What a jackass!
As
Pink Floyd would say, “leave them kids alone”. The young
university kids are being fed this load of foolishness and most won’t
look for the true answer unfortunately.
The
gold standard is far from perfect but it’s best and most useful
function is that it is a means of accountability and we all know the
government needs that or we end up where we are today with massive spending
problems and going into more and more debt every single second.
I’m
trying to do my part to educate people of all ages and I think it takes an
effort by everyone who understand whether it be talking to your kids,
grandkids, siblings or even neighbours.
Most
people know deep down that something isn’t right and a little simple
education is al it takes to open their eyes and
join us investors in our insurance, physical precious metals.
We
had two banks fail this past week to join 2012’s short list of biggest losers.
It’s
now coming to light that Jon Corzine, of MF Global fame, indeed did order
directly that customer money be used to cover his company losses.
So Bloomberg can get this information but the SEC can’t?
Where
is the accountability, and where are the cops?
This
is nothing less than theft and it’s been known for a while now but his
connections are so far saving him.
Add
to that the fact that he testified and lied under oath and Jon must be put
behind bars.
Now
that this has come to light it will be a very interesting story to follow.
His connections run deep, very deep, within the Obama administration and if
he’s not prosecuted Obama must be held personally accountable in my
opinion.
I’m
hearing a hearing is being set for later this week to delve into the matter a
bit deeper but Jon Corzine’s name was absent from the list so far.
One
of the major reasons being touted for the continued fall in gold prices is
the strike in India by bullion traders who are protesting
duty increases. It’s still unknown how long this strike will last and
it definitely does have a significant impact on physical gold demand although
retail buyers elsewhere are stepping up to fill the gap in a huge way lately.
They are taking advantage of the sale on physical gold and silver.
A
major lawsuit is in the works in South Africa regarding cases of silicosis contracted by many
thousands of miners who’ve worked in poor and unsafe
conditions over the years. This could be a huge blow to the already fragile
mining industry in South Africa and just one more reason I’ve steered
clear of investing in that country.
On
the other hand Tanzania is quite mining friendly, especially if done the
right way, and their gold exports rose to $2.2 billion, and increase of 49%, in 2011 January through November.
I
much prefer investing in countries with what I consider to be sustainable
practices and less legacy issues. On that note mining companies are on sale nearly as much, in many
cases, as they were during December 2011. Those prices quickly
doubled in many cases and the others saw increases more in the 50% range in
short order.
These
are the types of moves we should soon be expecting from our mining portfolios
from here on. At least if you’ve got the right mix that is.
Back
up the truck!
Enjoy
your weekend and week ahead. We’re still eyeing gold and silver very closely for subscribers
to let them know as soon as a bottom is in and they can safely fill their
boots!
Warren Bevan
www.preciousmetalstockreview.com
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