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Fresh
on the heels of a snow job where Bernanke warned economists to disregard
effects that did not happen (and anyone doing any semblance of research
should have known would not happen) we now see media trumpeting up census
hiring as if it was not temporary.
In case you missed the snow job analysis please see ...
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Range of Snow
Impact on Jobs: Negligible to 220,000; Have Your Snow Job Decoder Ring Handy?
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Jobs Contract By
36,000; Unemployment Rate Steady At 9.7%; No Snow Effect
Having expected to see job losses up to 220,000 in last Friday's report,
economists have now gone the other direction trumpeting part-time census jobs
that will vanish by June or July.
Census Hiring Hype
Please consider this unthinking headline Obama Job Losses
May Turn on 300,000 March Payrolls.
The
U.S. may add as many as 300,000 jobs in March, the most in four years,
setting the stage for what some economists say will be sustained employment
gains.
Better weather, hiring of temporary government workers and a growing economy
may bring the biggest job increases since March 2006, said David Greenlaw,
chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The rise would be
the second since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009.
February payrolls dropped by 36,000, the Labor Department reported last week,
depressed in part by East Coast snowstorms that closed many businesses.
Excluding the effects of the weather and the hiring of government workers to
conduct the 2010 Census, payrolls would have climbed by about 100,000,
Greenlaw said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview.
“If you get a plus 100,000 number again in March, then you’d be
talking about a headline reading of a little bit better than 300,000 when you
factor in the weather bounce-back and the census effect,” he said.
Mish
Comment:
Hello Greenlaw - Is the headline all this is important? Does the fact that
all of these jobs will vanish by June mean anything?
The
February drop in payrolls was smaller than the 68,000 median decline forecast
by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the March 5 report. The
jobless rate, which hasn’t increased since October, held at 9.7
percent, even as more people entered the workforce.
Mish
Comment:
Go figure. Bernanke trumped up the affect of snow and economists upped their
job loss estimates to ridiculous levels, some over 200,000. I called this in
advance, as the above links show.
“We
expect a sharp snapback in March payrolls as well,” said Dean Maki,
chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, the most accurate
forecaster in a Bloomberg News survey in December. He didn’t give a
specific estimate.
Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York,
said in a March 6 e-mail to customers that he anticipates payrolls this month
will climb by about 275,000. About 50,000 of that represents the
“underlying trend” in employment, he said, with about 100,000
attributable to the weather and another 125,000 to the census.
Mish
Comment:
Even after analysis shows that snow had no effect, economists are attributing
100,000 jobs to snow.
Joseph
LaVorgna is more upbeat about the employment outlook, anticipating payroll
gains averaging about 300,000 for the next three to four months.
“We have overcut inventories, we have overcut capital spending and we
have overcut jobs,” said LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche
Bank Securities Inc. in New York. A March payroll gain of as much as 450,000
“can’t be ruled out,” he said, and further increases are
“going to convince people of the sustainability and durability of the
recovery.”
“We could easily see” 300,000 jobs added this month, Brian
Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Portfolios in Wheaton, Illinois, said
today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “I don’t expect to see
consistent gains of that size, but clearly March could be that number.”
I'll Take The
Under
“We have overcut inventories, we have overcut capital spending and
we have overcut jobs,” said LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche
Bank Securities Inc. in New York. A March payroll gain of as much as 450,000
“can’t be ruled out,” he said, and further increases are
“going to convince people of the sustainability and durability of the
recovery.”
Even if by some miracle we see 450,000 jobs in March, they will all vanish by
June. Not one of the clowns quoted in the article mentioned either of these
points
1. These jobs are part-time
2. They will be gone by June or July
Economist clowns were wrong about snow last month, and now they are massively
wrong in the other direction, confusing part time, temporary hiring with a
sustainable recovery.
Mish
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