Breakdown Shakedown

IMG Auteur
Published : June 17th, 2013
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Category : Technical Analysis

I want to thank everyone for the outpouring of support throughout the past week. I appreciate it very much. It makes getting up Saturday mornings and working worth it.

Many of you enjoy my no-nonsense approach and brevity. Some call it the Bevan Brevity. I like it!

As for the market I had by far the worst week all year this past week. No matter how long you're at this game it happens sometimes. I ended up thinking I was a little smarter than the market and entered some positions at only so-so entry points.

Those all turned positive quickly, then one by one fell negative and I let them ride thinking they would come back. They rarely do.

Tuesday's gap lower really stung and I was selling into any strength there was and then Wednesday I finally got all out for totally unacceptable losses.

No matter the disciplined approach I preach, when it comes down to it, I make mistakes all the time, and big ones like this the very odd time, but those times sting.

I'll get it back, but it may take a few weeks or more unfortunately.

As for the precious metals, gold and silver are still under pressure and wanting lower. They are trading in quite wide ranges these days. Up $20, down $20.

It's a great market if you can trade it. I'm avoiding it now until I see a sign of a bottom which is not yet.

Let's start with gold.

24hGold - Breakdown Shakedown

Gold ended up 0.27% on the week in it's volatile range.

After breaking it's triangle last week we're just setting up a bear flag pattern here which will push gold lower from what I can see.

You could consider shorting a move under the bear flag but overnight risk is dangerous, especially with this type of volatility.

I'll be avoiding it and focusing on easier money until I see a sign of a low.

The monthly gold chart looks even worse to me and could well point to a move to $1,000. I hope I'm wrong but if I'm not. Don't shoot the messenger.

24hGold - Breakdown Shakedown

Silver rose 1.45% this past week. It's breaking down one base at a time for now.

Silver's monthly chart doesn't look great and could be pointing for a move to $15. I'm not so sure about that but I do expect a nice move under $20 that I've been talking about here for months now.

A short could be taken on the break of the support line drawn here around $21.50 if you're so inclined. I'm not so sure I will take the trade but if I do I will leverage it with options and possibly a leveraged ETF.

The simple fact is, the chart remains telling me we've got more to go on the downside.

24hGold - Breakdown Shakedown

Platinum broke the lower end of it's pattern here and is heading to the $1,375 area or below now unless a miracle occurs.

Last week I talked about the failed breakout above the resistance level at $1,525. I talked about the importance of exiting a trade quickly if it fails and then I turned around Monday and ignored my own words and payed dearly for it.

Had you not heeded my words and held platinum even after it's failed breakout you'd be down a hefty $75 already with more losses likely.

I hope none of you are in that predicament.

These are the types of trades I looks for anywhere I can find them.

I look for easy breakout levels that either work, or they don't and you exit quickly.

24hGold - Breakdown Shakedown

Palladium fell 3.85% in a major failed breakout.

Last week I said a breakout above horizontal resistance could be bounce just above $760 but to watch out for the $770 area as it had a strong resistance level.

That's exactly where palladium stopped this week and reversed hard thereafter.

It's now broken it's uptrend line and is probing for much lower prices.

The $700 area has support along with the 20 day moving average so that looks to be it's first potential support area at the moment.

Personally I've got a very busy weekend ahead so this may be a little extra short and out a little early.

Enjoy your weekend and week ahead. Embrace the weakness.


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