Bull Market Getting a Little Freakish

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Published : May 15th, 2013
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Category : Market Analysis

The 1476.25 rally target shown in the chart below looked until recently like a good bet to contain the bullish stampede, at least for a while. As of early Wednesday morning, however, it seemed to be giving way. Even though it has been exceeded so far by just 2.50 points, that’s enough to imply that the resistance has been fatally compromised, given the clarity of the technical pattern that produced it. If this “Hidden Pivot” is in fact easily brushed aside, it would be yet one more casualty of a bull market that in its fifth year is growing more relentless by the day.

And freakish. Yesterday’s rally marked the 18th straight week that the Dow has closed higher on a Tuesday. Market watchers have been trying to make sense of this, since nothing remotely like it has ever happened before. But they might as well try to explain Stonehenge. The mere fact that betting that stocks will finish higher on a Tuesday has become all but a sure thing is reason enough for it not to happen again.  That’s because “knowing” what the Dow will do on a given Tuesday would make it possible for “everyone” to make money on the same side of the market.  That cannot be, of course. And yet, who would dare fade next Tuesday’s action, assuming it’s a rally?

Another 1000-Pointer?

So what if buyers simply blow past the 1476.25 target shown above?  According to our technical runes, that would put in play a 1779.75 target of higher degree whose attainment would be equivalent to a 1000-point rally in the Dow. For a graphical explanation, check  out the “touts” section of Rick’s Picks today. If you don’t subscribe but would like to try a risk-free trial for a week, click here.  You’ll get access to all of our features and services, including a 24/7 chat room that draws veteran traders from around the world.

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Rick Ackerman is the editor of Rick’s Picks, a daily trading newsletter and intraday advisory packed with detailed strategies, fresh ideas and plain old horse sense.
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Ackerman has totally lost me with this piece. At first i thought that the 1476.25 figure he used at the top of the article was a typo when the chart below it showed the target being 1647.50. But toward the end of the piece he used 1476.25 again. And why on earth is he using a chart labelled ESM13? Who the hell ever heard of ESM13? It is actually a chart of the S&P 500 as best i can tell. ESM13 would seem to be a CME contract based on the S&P 500. So why not just use a chart labelled S&P 500? ....The potential raise to 1779.75 being equal to a 1,000 point rise of the Dow would only make sense if the chart figure of 1647.50 is the correct number.

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OK I'll bite. How can any/all markets that everyone now concedes are fixed/rigged (perdon me, managed) freak anyone or appear freakish. I confess, most of what is going on in our faces and up our noses, is bizarre, but is it not to be expected. Gensler even had to let the Dodd-Frank ball drop on derivatives trading for goodness sake. It's only $7000 billion or 1.3 quadrillion depending on which BIS figure one accepts, what the hell does anything really matter after a certain point? A magical, mystical market in a raging bull with almost no performing companies, what the hell? and Gold 1K or 1500 or 5000...when there is none (i.e. bullion), laugh so ya don't cry. And the Fx - with the Fed buying 70% of bond and the USD up??? I know there's a white rabbit in here someplace. Whay are any of us taking this seriously?

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OK I'll bite. How can any/all markets that everyone now concedes are fixed/rigged (perdon me, managed) freak anyone or appear freakish. I confess, most of what is going on in our faces and up our noses, is bizarre, but is it not to be expected. Gensler e  Read more
SirJames - 5/16/2013 at 4:13 AM GMT
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