Can You Guess Which Is Which?

The latest Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook Survey is out and the responses from those charged with keeping tabs on corporate America's bottom line reveal something of a disconnect.

On the one hand, respondents are convinced that earnings, capital spending, and R&D are set to rise over the next 12 months by 12 percent, 9 percent, and 4 to 6 percent, respectively.

However, they don't don't offer much in the way of corroborating detail to back up those rosy forecasts. Consider the following:

• U.S. CFOs expect to increase domestic employment by just under 1 percent during the next 12 months. It may be several years before employment returns to pre-recession levels, which will weigh on consumer spending. Fewer than half of companies that cut employment packages expect to restore pay, training, and benefits to their pre-recession levels during the next year.

• Borrowing conditions remain tight, with roughly an equal split between firms reporting that credit conditions have tightened and those saying credit has eased. One-third of micro-firms (100 or fewer employees) say credit conditions have worsened in the past six months.

• The top two concerns for U.S. CFOs are weak consumer demand and the federal government's agenda. U.S. CFOs, who expect to raise the prices of their products by 1.5 percent, are also worried about price pressure from intense competition. Maintaining employee morale is among the top company-specific concerns.

From where I sit, the results seem to be a mixture of wishful thinking and cold, hard reality. Can you guess which is which?

Michael J. Panzner
Editor, Financialarmageddon.com

Michael J. Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes, published by Kaplan Publishing.