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In "US
Corporates Shy to Offer Guidance," the Financial Times reports
that those who are at the economy's front lines have a less than clear vision
of where things are headed:
US companies
are more uncertain about the future than at any point since the financial
crisis, with just one in five of the country’s biggest corporations
making any predictions as they published fourth-quarter results.
“We’re
seeing a marked reluctance from companies to be concrete in their
forecasts,” said Christine Short at data provider Standard &
Poor’s Capital IQ. “When companies have talked about prospects
for 2012, they have tended to make generic comments, which could apply to any
company in any sector.”
Some 410
companies in the S&P 500 index have reported results so far and just 86
of them offered an earnings per share forecast for
the first quarter of 2012. That is on track to be the lowest number since the
third quarter of 2009, when companies were still weighing up the impact of
the financial crisis.
And yet, those
whose view of reality comes largely by way of Excel spreadsheets, Bubblevision, and Wall Street watering holes appear to be
exceptionally confident about the outlook, as Business Insider reveals in "All Of
The Stock Market Sentiment Indicators Combined Into One Index" [italics mine]:
There are
various measures of sentiment that stock market watchers follow. RBC
[Capital] blended six of the biggest ones to form one comprehensive market
sentiment indicator. It consists of the 1) CBOE put-to-call ratio, which is
currently neutral; 2) the American Association of Individual Investors Bull
ratio, which is bullish; 3) the Investors Intelligence Bullish Ratios, which
is neutral; 4) the National Association of Active Investment Managers Survey
of Manager Sentiment, which reflects extreme optimism; 5) the NYSE New High
to New Low ratio, which reflects extreme bullishness and 5) the CBOE Volatility
Index, which is neutral relative to long run averages.
According to RBC's aggregation of the sentiment readings, the stock markets reflect
extreme optimism.
Of course, they
don't call that latter group the "smart money" for nothing --
right?
Michael J. Panzner
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