The debt ceiling debate that has
dominated the headlines over the past month has been thoroughly infused with
a string of unfortunate misconceptions and a number of blatant deceptions. As
a result, the entire process has been mostly hot air. While a recitation of
all the errors would be better attempted by a novelist rather than a weekly
columnist, I'll offer my short list.
After having failed utterly to warn investors
of the dangers associated with the toxic debt of entities like Enron, Fannie
Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG, as well as the perils of investing in
mortgage-backed securities and sovereign debt of various bankrupt countries,
the credit ratings agencies (CRAs) have now apparently decided to be more
vigilant. Hence, many have offered conspicuous warnings that they may lower
U.S. debt ratings if Washington fails to make progress on its fiscal
imbalances. But then, just in case anyone was getting the impression that
these rating agencies actually cared about fiscal prudence, Moody's suggested
this week that its concerns would be lessened if Washington were to make a
deal on the debt. The agency has even suggested that America's credit could
be further improved if Washington would simply eliminate the statutory debt
limit altogether. In other words, Moody's believes that our nation's problems
are more a function of squabbling politicians rather than a chronic,
unresolved problem of borrowing more than we can ever hope to repay.
With or without a deal, the CRAs should
have already lowered their debt ratings on the $14.3 trillion of U.S. debt.
In fact the rating should be lowered again if the debt ceiling IS raised. And
it should be lowered still further if we eliminated the debt ceiling
altogether. To lower the rating because the limit is NOT raised is like
cutting the FICO score of a homeless person because he is denied a home
equity loan.
Republicans are making a different
misconception about the debt ceiling debate in their belief that they can
dramatically cut government spending without pushing down GDP growth in the
short term. In a recent poll from Pew Research Center for the People and the
Press showed 53% of G.O.P. and 65% of Tea Party members said there would be
no economic crisis resulting from not raising the debt ceiling.
They argue that leaving money in the
private sector is better for an economy than sending the money to Washington
to be spent by government. That much is undoubtedly true. But a very large
portion of current government spending does not come from taxing or
borrowing, but from printed money courtesy of the Fed. If the Fed stops
printing, inflation and consumption are sure to fall. While this is certainly
necessary in the long run, it will be nevertheless devastating for the
economic data in the near term.
Over the last decade and a half our
economy has floated up on a succession of asset bubbles, all made possible by
the Fed. Our central bank lowers borrowing costs far below market levels. Commercial
banks then expand the money supply by making goofy loans to the government or
to the private sector. As a consequence, debt levels and asset values soar
and soon become unsustainable. Ultimately, the Fed and commercial banks cut
off the monetary spigot, either by their own volition or because the demand
for money plummets. The economy is forced to deleverage and consumers are
forced to sell assets and pay down debt. Recession ensues. That's exactly
what could happen if $1.5 trillion worth of austerity suddenly crashes into
the economy come August 2nd. Although they don't seem to realize
it, this will create huge political problems for Republicans.
And then there is the deception coming
from Democrats who argue that we need to raise taxes in order to balance our
budget. This is simply not possible. The American economy currently produces
nearly $15 trillion in GDP per annum but has $115 trillion in unfunded liabilities.With a hole like that,
no amount of taxes could balance the budget. Raising revenue from the 14% of
GDP, as it is today, to the 20% it was in 2000 would barely make a dent
toward funding our Social Security and Medicare liabilities. Therefore, we
need to cut entitlement spending dramatically. But the Democrats refuse to
face the obvious facts.
With the Tea Party gaining traction in
Congress, and causing nightmares for incumbents, Republicans have little
incentive to raise the debt ceiling (although they raised it 7 times under
George W. Bush). Democrats aren't going to reduce entitlements without
raising taxes on "the rich" and Republicans aren't going to raise
taxes when the unemployment rate is 9.2%. There's your stalemate and anyone
expecting a significant deal to cut more than $4 trillion in spending by the
August 2nd deadline will be severely disappointed. Although there
has been some movement by the so-called "Gang of Six" centrist
senators in recent days, a substantive deal may be more unlikely than most
people think. And even if a much smaller deal can be reached in time, the
credit rating agencies may follow through on their promise to downgrade our
sovereign debt. The fallout could be devastating to money market and pension
funds that must hold AAA paper. But an even worse outcome will occur when the
real debt downgrade comes from our foreign creditors, when they no longer
believe the U.S. has the ability to pay our bills.
In my
opinion, the best news for the long term future of this nation is the
Republican "Cut, Cap and Balance" plan that just passed the House.
It now heads to a much harder hurdle in the Democrat controlled Senate, and
if it passes that, to a certain veto from President Obama. At least something
so promising got to the table at all. However, I think the country needs some
more tastes of brutal reality before such bitter medicine has a chance of
going down.
Michael Pento
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