I must confess I am a gold bug
both philosophically and in terms of investing. We are entering a golden age
for Gold as the bull market is destined to reach amazing heights and real and
honest money reemerges as legal tender against fiat currencies that will soon
be at the mercy of a sovereign debt crisis. All this being said, I take issue
with some headlines listed here in
friend Gary's blog and some gold bug talking points. I'm listing some of
these headlines and talking points and here then my response.
System Wide Meltdown as US to Enter Hyperinflation
The odds of hyperinflation are
extremely remote. For that to even happen, the US would need to lose its
status as the largest economy in the world and completely lose the reserve
currency. Neither of these things is going to happen. Sure US power is waning
but the US remains the dominant nation which is essential to the global
economy. Moreover, our debt isn't owed in a foreign currency.
More importantly, if
hyperinflation was even a small risk, the US Dollar and the bond market would
be falling apart. This is where technical analysis comes in handy. The US
Dollar has just emerged from a bullish double bottom on the weekly chart
while Bonds (as per TLT and IEF) have been ripping for weeks. Their uptrends
remain intact and have actually strengthened as QE has come to a close. The
hyperinflation talk is nonsense.
Gold & Silver Have Bottomed, Summer Explosion Ahead
Gold has actually peaked at
$1550 and looks headed down to $1475. It hasn't bottomed but is in a bullish
consolidation that will likely continue into August. In terms of sentiment,
Silver looks excellent. Sentiment suggests a lack of material downside but
Silver's rebounds continue to fail and now the metal will retest $33. It
could bottom at $30-$31. To conclude, further consolidation in Gold will
likely fuel a stronger breakout at somepoint but not until August at the
earliest. Silver needs to confirm a bottom and build a strong base. We won't
see an explosion until the market exceeds $50 which may not happen for
another 12 months. First these markets need to sustain an uptrend before an
explosion can happen. It is just wishful thinking.
Hedge Funds are Shorting the Gold Stocks and the Juniors
Anytime the gold stocks
underperform out comes this battle cry.
First of all we need to
understand that historically gold stocks do not outperform Gold. Please see
this excellent piece
by Steve Saville which should put to rest this idea that gold stocks should
outperform Gold or are cheap because they are not outperforming. Gold mining
is a very difficult business and its extremely difficult the larger the
company is. Even with a rising price of Gold it is difficult to sustain
production and reserve growth. Hence, the sector doesn't outperform over long
periods of time.
Sorry but hedge funds are not
shorting the juniors. The juniors are extremely risky illiquid and are the
worst performers when the broad market is weak. The vast majority of these
companies have no production, no cash flow, no earnings and no money. They
are not real businesses. They are vehicles for speculation. If your juniors
are badly underperforming then you haven't picked the right ones or you have
unrealistic expectations. Maybe a tiny hedge fund here and there is shorting
a few juniors. Other than that the notion is completely unproven. Consider
options, warrants and private placements and then you might find the reason
your juniors aren't performing.
The current reality, as we
described in a recent editorial, is one of risk aversion. That is good for
Gold but bad for gold shares. However, Gold is rising relative to mining cost
inputs which will be a bullish catalyst for the gold shares in a few months
and likely when this summer selloff abates.
Bonds will Crash without QE, Interest Rates will Skyrocket
Bonds began another advance
into the end of this QE. This is counter intuitive. If the Fed isn't buying
Bonds then who is? Institutions with millions need a safe place to park funds
and earn a small return. Stocks and Commodities have had a great run but now
the ill-fated economic recovery has lost momentum. Bonds are the only place
the big money can go when risk assets pullback. Remember, no QE initially
means lower inflation expectations which means lower Stocks and Commodities
which provides a bid for Bonds.
In the Great Depression, rates
didn't bottom until the 1940s. Short term funds continue to make new highs.
IEF, a 7-10 year ETF is on the cusp of another all-time high. There are many
reasons why Bonds may not decline over the next few years. The US still has
the reserve currency and global economic power. Weakness in the US will keep
short rates low and affect global economies and markets. That combination is
advantage for Bonds against risk assets. Japan is one example.
We expect continued debt
monetization, currency depreciation and inflation but we disagree that Bonds
are going to collapse anytime soon.
Conclusion
Precious Metals are certainly
in a bull market and the birth of a bubble should occur sooner rather than
later. This being said, we need to remember that precious metals and the
respective shares are extremely volatile. The buy and hold philosophy can
work with Gold but it doesn't work with the gold stocks. Most companies are
not even close to their 2007-2008 levels despite the price of Gold being 50%
above its 2008 peak. It is more of a bull market for traders and active
investors than a buy and hold for 10 years investor.
This one-way thinking with
sensational statements can be dangerous and deadly to your portfolio. It is
more sensible to be cautious, entertain foreign ideas and explain both sides
of the coin. We at The Daily Gold have endeavoured to do so and have achieved
a positive return year to date when GDXJ, our benchmark is down 17%.
Good Luck!
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