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Looks like some
of the powers-that-be have not had their regular rations of economic
Kool-Aid:
"Global
Bosses Are Gloomy About the Economic Future" (BBC
News)
Companies
around the world are getting gloomier about the economic future again,
according to an annual survey of global chief executives.
Nearly half of
bosses interviewed by accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers are forecasting
that the global economy will decline this year.
The number of
business leaders that are "very confident" their firms will grow
has also fallen, from 48% to 40%.
...
The confidence
of chief executives "is decidedly down as they deal with the aftershocks
to the recession," said Dennis Nally, chairman
of PwC International. "The optimism that had been building cautiously
since 2008 has begun to recede."
"IMF
Cuts Growth Forecast; Sees Recession"
(Bloomberg)
The
International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth and warned
that the European debt crisis threatens to derail the world economy.
“The
epicenter of the danger is Europe but the rest of the world is increasingly
affected,” Olivier Blanchard, the fund’s chief economist, said
today at a news conference in Washington. “There’s an even
greater danger, namely that the European crisis intensifies. In this case the
world could be plunged into another recession.”
The fund, in an
update of its World Economic Outlook report, lowered its estimate for global
growth this year to 3.3 percent from a September forecast of 4 percent. The
expansion next year will be 3.9 percent, down from 4.5 percent. The euro area
may enter a “mild recession” in 2012 as it shrinks 0.5 percent.
The U.S. outlook was unchanged at 1.8 percent growth.
Or perhaps
they've simply started paying attention to Financial Armageddon?
Still, there
are those who see things differently, including the so-called smart money:
"Goldman’s
O’Neill Sees Investors Adopting His Bullish US Stance" (CNBC)
Goldman
Sachs’ Jim O’Neill, famous for coining the term
‘BRIC’ to describe the major emerging markets, is bullish on the
U.S. economy and, perhaps more importantly, senses more of his colleagues
shifting their mood to his more positive tone.
“I spent
most of this past week in New York, and to my slight surprise, there appears
to be some shift in the mood about the state of life,” wrote O’Neill
in his ‘Viewpoints’ letter to clients. “Whether this is
because it is the start of the year, asset prices have been perkier or there
is some recognition that the U.S. economy and other parts of the world are
not as bleak as the second half of 2010 is not so clear. It was certainly
quite nice to hear and, in my judgement, is more
reflective of what is going on.”
Hmmm, I wonder
who's right?
Michael J. Panzner
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