Graceland
Updates
By
Stewart Thomson
1. All financial eyes
should be focused on the FOMC minutes release on Thursday,
and the Employment Situation report on Friday.
2. What is the main factor
that will determine whether gold can surge over $1800 this week?
3. The answer is the institutional money manager
liquidity flows that occur in response to those two critical reports.
4. Ben Bernanke has made it
crystal clear, that unless there is significant and consistent jobs growth,
the Fed will purchase more monthly tranches of OTC mortgage securities.
5. The theme amongst
institutional money managers is “risk
on”, with gold playing leader
of the parade. Top callers have not fared well in this rally, and a
violent move above $1800 could cause more of them to throw in the towel.
6. Many top bank economists
are calling that price of $1800 a “game
changer”,
and I believe that’s exactly what it is.
7. A lot of these risk-on
markets are showing signs that they have caught the “QE3 bug”. Please click
here now. You are looking at the daily chart for the Dow. Note the beautiful
inverse h&s pattern in play. The price target
is well over 14,000.
8. The weekly chart
showcases an ever bigger version of the same pattern. Please click
here now. Depending on how the neckline is drawn, the target is at least
16,000, and arguably as high as 17,000.
9. A massive risk-on
institutional liquidity flows tidal wave is underway, and it’s not just
the Dow that money managers are focused on; it’s a broad spectrum of assets.
10. Please click
here now. You are looking at the daily chart for November oil futures.
After bottoming in the $79 area, oil rallied to about $101, and then declined
to the key Fibonacci 50% retracement line near $90.
11. Oil may be getting set
to charge higher, which would put more pressure on the economy, and cause Ben
Bernanke to considering ramping up QE3, or implementing QE4.
12. Please click
here now. That’s a short term chart for oil, and you can see that
an inverse h&s pattern has formed.
Thursday’s FOMC minutes release could be just what the technical doctor
orders, to blast oil up above the $94 resistance area, and start a trending move higher.
13. Please click
here now. I believe that the price of natural gas could ultimately surpass
the price of oil, but I’ll be more than happy if it rises just to my $4.20 target. Note the light red lines
that I’ve put on the chart at key HSR (horizontal support &
resistance) points.
14. Those red lines are
“sell like a bird”
profit booking points. Natural gas is the world’s most volatile
commodity, so it’s very important to buy it at the lowest possible
price. Price swings of 50%-70% are very common, and most natural gas players
cannot deal with the drawdowns that accompany their investment in this key
fuel.
15. Please click
here now. You are looking at the daily chart of GDX. A lot of gold stock
investors were hurt very badly by the decline of 2011-2012, with many
individual issues falling 70-90%. As a result, there’s still a lot of
nervousness in the air, despite the emergence of QE3.
16. I’m not really
interested in whether gold is set to “correct
now” or not, but for those who are, watch the daily chart for a
move to new highs in price that is not
confirmed by RSI.
17. The RSI oscillator is
currently overbought, but is confirming all the price action, so all price
lights are green!
18. Investors should give
serious consideration to QE3, and the accompanying risk-on theme being
adopted by powerful money managers. As volatility grows, it may be time to
consider fading the use of the daily price charts, and focusing more on the
weekly and monthly ones.
19. On that note, please click
here now. You are viewing the monthly gold spot price chart. Most of the
indicators and oscillators are displaying buy signals.
20. Note the CCI indicator.
It has only just arrived in the overbought zone, suggesting an enormous
trending move has just started.
21. Institutional money
managers don’t see much point in fighting the Fed, and it may be wise
for retail investors to follow that same strategy. Risk-on is in play, and
“sharp hits” rather
than “corrections” is
likely how price declines occur, for quite some time. Place orders 2-5% below
the current market price
22. Placing too much
emphasis on the price and indicator action on daily charts is arguably a form
of gambling, and many professional money managers have the same viewpoint
that I do.
23. I like gambling, with very limited risk capital. Unless you
believe gold is going to break the lows near $1523, there is no need to be
“calling a correction”,
at this point in market time.
24. Yesterday,
gold rocketed higher in a “flagpole”
move, and that was followed by a bitterly disappointing sell-off. Have the
patience to wait for this week’s key price drivers to be unveiled,
before trying to guess where gold is headed to next. The drivers are the jobs
report on Friday, and the FOMC minutes on Thursday, and the only question is,
are you ready for action?
Special Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to freereports4@gracelandupdates.com
and I’ll send you my free “Natural Gas Fist Fight With
Silver” report! Which of these magnificent assets should you own, and
why? I’ll cover the pros & cons of each, so you can decide whether
energy or metal is your road to getting richer!
Thanks!
Cheers
St
|