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Watching CNN, its easy to be lulled into the sense that the cute
little third world African country that is home to Cleopatra, mummies and
pyramids is having a little revolution to get rid of a tired old tyrant. That
the old goat is putting up such resistance to the national message is to be
expected, and might be forgiven. Unleashing bands of paid thugs under the guise
of ‘supporters’ reveals true brutality and illuminates the
character of the man, Hosni Mubarak – a sociopath.
This phenomenon,
originated in Tunisia, a nation of 10 million, and now raging in Egypt, of 85
million has spread to Yemen, population 25 million and Jordan, population 6
million is no mere regional political shift: this is the beginning of
America’s loss of control over the region.
That the democratic process even got a
foothold in the tribal and historically despotically governed middle east is
due to a series of historical power plays, and not so much to a nascent and
organic inclination towards the idea of democracy. When oil emerged to become
the most strategic substance on earth after the second world war, the United
States, armed with the economic windfall from the war machine, set about
toppling governments and seeding insurrection through the offices of the
C.I.A., bolstering governments that were ‘incentivized’ to
protect U.S. interests, and destroying those that were not.
Back then, before the light-sped
connected world, the C.I.A. could operate with impunity, given the backwards
communications systems in those days, and the relative lack of education of
their targets.
It is unlikely Mubarak would have lasted
as long as he did without overt U.S. support, and tacit Israeli support.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been the two moderating influences in the
volatile regional mindset that inclines naturally towards the harsh brand of
Islamic orthodoxy that characterizes the rest of the region. There is deep
resentment against the U.S. hegemonic strategy that has determined the
current Middle East order.
That resentment, now finding expression
in a unified regional protest, is transforming itself into a force of
self-determination, and the Muslim brotherhood and Al Qaeda are most likely
to recognize and capitalize on that force.
The implications for the United States,
Saudi Arabia and Israel are seismic. This brand of revolution, that starts
peacefully and ends up violent, is the archetypal early stage of total
regional reorganization. This could be the first stage of an elevated
conflict that would see a war ignite between Saudi Arabia and the rest of the
Islamic region, where the outcome would be a dramatic rise in Islamic
fundamentalism, as the Saudis would be accurately portrayed as the puppet of
the decadent and imperialistic West and Egypt would fall to the Muslim
Brotherhood, already the largest political opposition group in Egypt.
Algeria, Syria, Morocco, and other North
African countries will begin to feel incrementally emboldened, and in theory,
it mightn’t be long before new strategic alliances with Russia and
China tipped the balance of power towards and Islamist brand of socialism.
China especially would welcome its chance to strengthen the financial
dependency it already receives from the United States with a military
dependency as well.
How many more active theatres of war can
the U.S. afford to fight, considering its $14.3 trillion debt and feeble
economy?
Obama has been upstaged by Egypt at
exactly the moment when the plan was supposed to be to focus on the
employment picture while shilling for the economic recovery. To find the
dictatorship that has long been subsidized by successive White House
administrations crumbling and sending oil and gold prices higher completely
derails the script. Despite the White House and Hilary Clinton’s
feckless distancing from their long time ally (urging a ‘peaceful
transition to democracy’), the historic relationship and its bearing on
the rise and staying power of the Mubarek regime
will be amplified in the weeks to come. The outcome will be the widespread
perception, both internationally and domestically, that the U.S. has been up
to its old tricks and can’t be trusted.
Though the issues play as superficially
unrelated in the cooperative press, they are not. It is domestic grievances
that ignited North Africa, it is domestic grievances
that dog the Obama administration and the U.S. Federal Reserve. While the
crushing poverty that plagues Egypt is only marginally present in the United
States, the widespread deterioration in the standard of living that has
affected the majority of Americans since 2008 is a substantial ratio of the
population.
Like the collapse of the U.S. dollar now
underway, the collapse of American influence in the Middle East is underway,
and both are slow, long-drawn processes slowed by intermittent attempts, in
both cases, to deter the inevitable.
Right now, its
an all out effort to portray the Egyptian revolution as an Egyptian problem
contained within that countries borders, with only
look-alike conflagrations surrounding it. Just as there is an all-out effort
to downplay the profound implications of the U.S. out of control debt and
once again prematurely achieved borrowing limit.
Gold is, as is its historical habit,
starting to throw off the cumbersome shackles of futures market derived
negative price influence, and reasserting its role as the only trustworthy
barometer of both political stability and monetary integrity. Since both of
those are now in advanced stages of disability, there is renewed impetus
behind gold demand now that is probably stronger than at any point in its ten
year bull market rise.
There are more U.S. dollars, less U.S.
GDP, less security in the Middle East, less security in Iran, no security
still in Afghanistan, diminishing security and stability in Pakistan.
Japanese debt has been downgraded, and
U.S. debt is threatened. The jobs data and consumer spending data coming out
of the United States are weak and insubstantial, and bank failures continue
apace. GDP growth was negative in the U.K, there is 25% unemployment in Spain, and without China’s intervention, the debt
auctions of both Portugal and Spain would have been utter failures.
Commodity prices are ratcheting upward,
and the price of gasoline remains at all time highs.
If that isn’t gold price positive,
I don’t know what is.
James West
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