Hopes were high that
the G-20 summit would issue a statement on US dollar hegemony, currency
fluctuations, a new world order, a return to a gold standard, or make some
other earth shattering statement. I predicted the summit would be a complete
waste of time. Let's take a look.
Bloomberg is reporting G-20 Calls for
Action on Growth, Regulatory Changes.
In a statement after
a five-hour summit in Washington, the Group of 20 urged a "broader
policy response" to spur growth, including potential interest-rate cuts
and fiscal stimulus.
My Comment: Wonderful. The US is at 1% and Japan at .3% with every other country on a Mad Race To ZIRP. It did not help Japan or the US and it will not help spur growth anywhere else either.
The group set a March
31 deadline for recommendations on tightening accounting standards,
strengthening derivatives markets and increasing oversight of hedge funds and
debt-rating firms.
My Comment: Gee let's see. We
postponed mark to market accounting, did nothing about off balance sheet
accounting, and are blaming hedge funds for loose lending practices at banks.
"There was a
common understanding that all of us should promote a pro-growth economic
policy," U.S. President George W. Bush said. U.K. Prime Minister Gordon
Brown said "there is a clear determination on the part of world leaders
in every continent to take necessary action to move economies out of this
difficult period."
My Comment: The understanding
(or rather the misunderstanding) was that the meeting would actually
accomplish something other than sing the praises of pro-growth economic
policy.
With no clear promise
to cut taxes and interest rates together, markets may be disappointed, said
Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd. in Valhalla, New York. "This isn't a strong action statement on addressing the matters at
hand."
Rather than coordinate action, nations should act "as deemed appropriate
to domestic conditions," the leaders said in their statement.
My translation: Everyone will
continue to do whatever it was they were doing before.
The group pledged not
to erect new trade barriers, guaranteed more resources for the International
Monetary Fund if needed and promised to meet again before May.
Tumbling stock markets and forecasts for a worldwide recession are
intensifying pressure on the G-20 leaders to act, 15 months after the credit
crunch began. The IMF predicts advanced economies will together contract next
year for the first time since World War II.
My Comment: Another meeting
before May? How exciting. Exactly what is another meeting supposed to
accomplish other than issue another lame statement praising growth?
The G-20 leaders,
representing 90 percent of the world economy, blamed the crisis on investors
who "sought higher yields without an adequate appreciation of the
risks."
My Comment: Banks and brokerage
packages sold poison apples. The G-20 is blaming those who bought poison
apples not those who knowingly sold poison apples.
Reaching agreement on
what to do was difficult, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said after the
meeting. "I'm a friend of the U.S. but it wasn't always easy," he
said. "There were misunderstandings to overcome."
My Comment: Exactly what
misunderstandings were overcome?
The statement papered
over differences by recognizing that regulation is "first and
foremost" a national responsibility, while at the same time demanding
"intensified international cooperation" to oversee financial firms
whose operations and problems cross national borders.
My Comment: "Papered
Over" is right and not a single misunderstanding was overcome.
The leaders called
for the creation of "supervisory colleges" for bank regulators
around the world to better to coordinate oversight and share information
about activities and risk-taking of international banks.
My Comment: They are going to
create yet another college of useless bureaucrats that will not do a damn
thing but receive outrageous pay for sharing information one can easily find
on Bloomberg. Any information actually worth sharing will be hidden from
public view just as it is now.
Capital standards
should be raised, they said, particularly for banks' structured credit and
securitization activities.
My Comment: This is a case of
saying one thing and doing another as Compelling Banks To
Lend At Bazooka Point and the Battle Over Bazooka
Point Lending proves.
The leaders directed
their finance ministers to work on recommendations for enhancing disclosure
by investors and institutions, including hedge funds, of their financial
conditions.
My Comment: Meanwhile Paulson
and Bernanke are in a battle with Bloomberg because they are failing to
disclose to investors exactly what they are doing with taxpayer money.
Debt-rating
companies, which blessed many of the products that have since gone into
default, should be registered, and oversight of their actions strengthened to
ensure they provide unbiased information and avoid conflicts of interest.
My Comment: This is more
useless nonsense. Exactly what good would it do to register Moody's, Fitch,
and the S&P. The big three were blessed by the SEC and that is what the
problem is. It's Time To Break Up
The Credit Rating Cartel.
Accounting standards
should be harmonized around the world, the group said, and regulators should
consider whether current rules properly value securities, particularly
complex, illiquid products, during times of stress.
My Comment: This sounds
suspiciously like a move away from mark to market accounting to more mark to
fantasy accounting.
The leaders said
executive compensation should be managed to "avoid excessive
risk-taking," while stopping short of calling for any caps.
My Comment: This is clearly
another useless statement.
Warning against
protectionism as a way to fight recession, the G-20 vowed not to raise any
trade barriers for the next year. They also said they will seek ways by the
end of the year to conclude the Doha round of trade talks that collapsed in
July.
My Comment: Trade talks have
collapsed every year for a decade. The US and EU are primarily to blame.
Leaders will meet
again before the end of April, most likely in London, when a new American
administration is in office.
My Comment: Why bother?
Heads of
emerging-market nations said the G-20 should now replace the Group of Eight
as the forum for addressing economic issues.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the G-8 has "become a
group of friends" and there's "no sense in making political and
economic decisions without the G-20 countries."
What sense is there in adding
more to the group? The odds that 20 can agree to something when 8 cannot is
zero. With that let's take a look at the top ten accomplishments of the
summit.
G-20 Top 10
Accomplishments
·
10:
President Bush said "There was a common understanding that all of us
should promote a pro-growth economic policy."
·
09:
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said "there is a clear determination on
the part of world leaders in every continent to take necessary action to move
economies out of this difficult period."
·
08:
The group agreed to not cap executive pay.
·
07:
The group sang the praises of low interest rates.
·
06:
The group will work on recommendations for enhancing disclosure while hinting
it would allow the continuation of mark to fantasy accounting.
·
05:
The group called for rating agencies to be registered even though rating
agencies in the US are already sponsored by the SEC.
·
04:
The group called for the creation of "supervisory colleges" who
will not do anything thing but receive outrageous pay for sharing information
one can easily find on Bloomberg.
·
03:
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico,
Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey complained "the group of
friends" otherwise known as the G-8 would not let them in whenever the
G-8 got together to party. The above listed countries are saying to the G-8
"please don't throw a party without us."
·
02:
The all inclusive group of 20 friends agreed to throw another party in April.
·
01:
Drum roll please..... The number one accomplishment of the G20 meeting was to
blame hedge funds and the buyers (not sellers) of poison apples for the
financial crisis.
Top 5 Things
G-20 Ignored
·
05: US
Dollar Hegemony.
·
04:
Micro-Mismanagement of interest rates by the Fed and Central Bankers.
·
03:
Spending run rampant in US authorized by Congress. Same thing in other G-20
countries.
·
02:
Of immediate concern is the Collapse of Trade, Letters of Credit, and Baltic
Dry Shipping. Please see Yet More Trade
Finance Worries (Not for the Fainthearted).
·
01:
Fractional Reserve Lending run rampant, leverage, excessive credit creation,
and unsound fiat currencies. In other words the G-20 ignored discussing the
very cause of the problem we are now facing.
Mish
GlobalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com
Mish's Global Economic
Trend Analysis
Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation
debate as well as discussions on gold, silver, currencies, interest rates,
and policy decisions that affect the global markets.
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