Investing and speculating
in gold stocks is a very risky business. While they tend to greatly
leverage the underlying gains in gold during a secular gold bull, individual
stocks face a wide variety of perils on their journey to legendary
gains. As a scary recent example illustrates, sometimes these perils
can be catastrophic.
In late November, long-time
junior-gold market-darling NovaGold (NG) shocked
investors with a stunning announcement. This company said that its
flagship Galore Creek project, which it only started construction on six
months earlier, was suddenly uneconomical. NovaGold
was shutting it down! As the markets opened after this news, NG gapped
down 27%. It ended that single trading day down 53% from the previous
day’s close! Talk about a catastrophe for its owners.
Traditionally traders deal
with this company-specific risk by being well-diversified. If you own a
single gold stock, and something like this happens, it will crush your
portfolio. But if you own ten or twenty of them, with capital allocated
roughly equally among all, freak single-stock plunges will barely even make a
dent in your overall portfolio. But prudent diversification often
requires too much capital for small traders.
If you have $20k+ allocated
to gold stocks, it isn’t too difficult to own ten to twenty different
positions. But as you scale down from here, relative commission costs
balloon. A $10 trading commission on a $1000 stock trade is acceptable
(1%). But that same flat $10 commission on a $100 stock trade is
ridiculous (10%). So traders new to gold stocks with small capital
allocations often have a very difficult time adequately diversifying away
company-specific risk.
Thankfully exchange-traded
funds offer a solution to this dilemma. Stock ETFs
are baskets of many stocks that are traded through your ordinary
stock-trading account with a single symbol. The most well-known
stock ETF is the PowerShares QQQ, which is a basket
of every individual stock in the NASDAQ 100 index. By simply buying the
symbol QQQQ in one single trade, traders can indirectly own a stake in all
100 NASDAQ 100 stocks.
After years of waiting, we
finally have a QQQ-equivalent in the gold-stock world. Administered by
Van Eck Global, it is known as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It
currently contains 34 component gold-mining and silver-mining
companies. It trades under the symbol GDX. So by simply buying
GDX, traders are granted instant sector diversification through indirect
stakes in 34 gold and silver companies.
I have been closely
watching this ETF since its May 2006 launch, observing how it performs and
actively trading options on it. Always skeptical
of new trading vehicles, I wanted to wait at least a year to see how it
performed relative to headline gold-stock indexes like the HUI. Now,
over a year and a half after launch, I am finally comfortable that GDX is
doing exactly what it advertises. I have even become a fan of this ETF.
In this essay I want to
explore the young GDX Gold Miners ETF, from its composition to its
life-to-date performance. Investors and speculators alike need to be
aware of GDX because it is such a wonderful trading tool. It not only
grants instant intra-sector diversification at all capital levels, but it is
growing into the ultimate way to trade stock options on gold and silver
stocks as a sector.
In order to understand any
ETF, we first have to consider its composition. GDX is based on a
little-known index called the AMEX Gold Miners Index (GDM). GDX simply
imitates GDM’s internal structure in terms of
weighting individual component companies. According to the American
Stock Exchange, the GDM is “a modified market capitalization weighted
index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining
for gold and silver. The Index divisor was initially determined to
yield a benchmark value of 500.00 at the close of trading on December 20,
2002.”
In order to be eligible for
inclusion in the GDM, a company must first meet three criteria. First
it must have a market capitalization exceeding $100m, which eliminates the
hyper-risky micro-cap stocks. Second it must have an average daily
volume of at least 50k shares over the past six months, which means it is
liquid and easy to trade. Third, it must be involved primarily in gold
mining and/or silver mining.
Today GDM is trading in the
1250 range, so it has outperformed most other sectors since late 2002. GDM
is a fine index, but curiously it has never really seemed to catch on. I
have been actively trading gold stocks since this bull began in late 2000,
along with doing much research and writing on them. Back in the early
days, the XAU was the gold-stock index of choice. Gradually the HUI
replaced it though due to the HUI’s unhedged nature. GDM was almost never discussed.
This is even odder
considering that the AMEX is not only the GDM custodian, but it administers
the flagship HUI as well. Why would one exchange make two competing
indexes for a single rather obscure sector? Perhaps someone from AMEX
will be kind enough to write in and enlighten me, because I have no idea why
both GDM and the HUI exist. If I get a solid answer, I will write about
it in a future essay.
Regardless of the GDM and
HUI mystery, the HUI has become the gold-stock index of choice for investors
and speculators. The HUI is to gold stocks like the NASDAQ is to tech
stocks. Its unhedged nature really appeals to
traders burned by companies hedging their gold production earlier in this
bull. Provocatively though, while the HUI is advertised as unhedged, AMEX’s formal
definition of “unhedged” probably
differs from that of most investors.
The AMEX declares,
“The HUI Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near
term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their
gold production beyond 1.5 years.” So HUI components can still be
lighter hedgers! Despite this, the HUI is still up 1167% bull-to-date
since November 2000. This light-hedging revelation always provides good
shock value for those who aren’t yet aware of it.
Anyway, in order to compare
GDX with the HUI, and also the XAU (which has no hedging restrictions), I
built a table with the relative component weightings in each index as of this
week. Each of the 34 component companies of the GDX is listed, followed
by its market capitalization and relative weight by market cap. This
provides a good benchmark off of which to consider the index
weightings. While none of these indexes is truly market-cap weighted,
they all approximate such a scheme reasonably well.
As you can see, the gold
and silver miners remain pretty small in market-cap terms compared to the
general stock markets. All 34 GDX components added together only had a
market capitalization near $163b earlier this week. To get perspective,
Google’s market cap alone ran around $220b! And as of the
end of last month, the entire S&P 500 had a market cap of $13,369b which
utterly dwarfs the gold stocks.
Thus the gold-stock sector
only weighs in at the equivalent of something like 1.2% of the broader US stock
markets. This is one key reason why gold stocks will skyrocket when the
public gets enamored with them. This sector
is just too small to accept a flood of new capital. And as the HUI is
already up nearly 1200% in its bull at this stage despite being totally
ignored by the mainstreamers, imagine where it will go when the mainstream
inevitably starts getting interested in chasing this stellar performance.
As is evident in this
table, despite generally following a loose market-cap weighting scheme all
three indexes have plenty of discrepancies. GDX,
for example, gives Yamana Gold (AUY) a massive 8.4%
weighting despite its 2.8% weight by pure market cap. The HUI currently
assigns Northgate Minerals (NXG) a 4.7% weighting although it only comprises
0.5% of this sector as measured by the 34 GDX stocks. So realize that
all of these indexes are just rough approximations of a true market-cap
weighting.
Interestingly, all 15 HUI
component companies are also included in the GDX. Together they account
for 74.4% of the GDX. This percentage has actually been rising. Back
in late June when I did a similar GDX/HUI analysis for our newsletter
subscribers, all the HUI components only made up 70.3% of the GDX. With
so much in common internally, for all intents and purposes GDX may as well be
the HUI.
The XAU is not as
well-represented in the GDX. Of its 16 components, 2 are not included
in the GDX. The main one, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), weighs in at a
massive 20.7% of the XAU. While I love this company as a general
commodities-stock investment, it is a primary copper miner, not
gold. So I am glad it is no longer included in the HUI or the
GDX. Overall the 14 XAU components included in the GDX represent 78.4%
of the GDX’s weightings (74.5% in late
June). So the GDX is also a decent XAU proxy as well. But with
FCX as the XAU’s largest component, copper
has a disproportionate impact on the XAU compared to the HUI and GDX.
Looking through the GDX
component companies, the great majority are excellent gold and/or silver
miners. Together they have countless mines, development projects, and
exploration projects all over the world in almost all possible geopolitical
and geographical environments. They are also well-diversified as
evident by their weightings. If any one GDX company pulled a NovaGold and collapsed 50%+ overnight, it wouldn’t
materially hurt this index unless it was a top-three component. And
even then, GDX would only take a 5% to 7% hit.
So from a pure internal
standpoint, GDX is very closely related to the HUI. Yes the GDX has
many more components and no the weightings among the common ones are not
identical. Nevertheless, the similar modified-market-cap construction
approach means the GDX is an excellent proxy for the headline HUI. Stock
traders who want sector-wide exposure via a HUI-like index will be
well-served by GDX.
In its initial year of
existence concluding this past May, I received a fair amount of e-mails
asking about the GDX. All I could say by that time regarding its
utility though was “we’ll have to wait
and see”. The only way to really understand how well GDX tracked
the familiar HUI was to watch this ETF actually trade and compare it to the
HUI. Finally today with 18+ months of history, including one major
correction/consolidation and one young upleg, we
have a solid technical basis off of which to render judgment.
Since its birth, GDX has
carved a virtually identical price pattern with the flagship HUI gold-stock
index. Indeed, if I removed the vertical axis labels and substituted
one data series for the other, not even hardcore students of the markets
could tell the difference. Overall the GDX and HUI had a stellar
correlation r-square of 98.74%! This means that nearly 99% of the daily
price action in the GDX could be explained statistically by the daily price
action in the HUI.
I also wanted to look at
actual GDX-versus-HUI gains and losses over big swings in the sector. These
are marked above by the little blue arrowheads. From the June 2006
interim low until July 2007, the HUI rallied 35.6% compared to the GDX’s 33.8%. During the gold-stock swoon this
past July and August, the HUI fell 19.1% while the GDX fell 20.0%. In
the young upleg since mid-August 2007, the HUI
soared 51.9% while the GDX followed closely at 51.5%.
While these big-swing
returns aren’t identical, they are pretty darned close and plenty good
for me. Actually, like all ETFs, GDX will
slightly underperform its underlying assets by
design. The reason is expenses. It takes a lot of time and
effort to manage an ETF, so its custodian is granted a contractual management
fee. In GDX’s case, this runs 0.55% of
assets annually. So every year GDX itself will be worth another 0.55%
less than its underlying basket of stocks.
This disturbs some people,
as I recently discussed while looking at the GLD gold ETF. But it
shouldn’t. Management fees, or expense ratios as they are called
in the ETF world, are just the nature of this beast. ETFs really expand the horizon of what is possible for
individual traders. For all their benefits, we need to expect some
minor costs. For comparison, the elite QQQQ NASDAQ 100 ETF has an
expense ratio of 0.2% annually while the GLD gold ETF runs 0.4%. GDX’s is higher which makes sense because it is
vastly smaller than either QQQQ or GLD, so its expenses are spread across a
much smaller asset base.
Even after these necessary
expenses, GDX still tracks the HUI extraordinarily well as this chart
shows. This is all the more impressive because GDX isn’t designed
to track the HUI, but the GDM. Nevertheless, its HUI-like composition
makes it an effective HUI tracker. Any investor or speculator can buy
GDX and expect his capital to move in lockstep with the HUI and ultimately
exhibit almost identical gains or losses.
Because of this inadvertent
HUI parallelism, GDX is useful in many different ways for traders. For
smaller pools of capital, GDX offers instant diversification among gold and
silver stocks with a single trade. I often recommend GDX for this very
purpose to my consulting clients who don’t yet have $20k+ they are
willing to allocate to gold stocks alone.
GDX is also useful for
larger pools of capital. Sometimes capital is locked in a vehicle that
either restricts trading or the number of individual positions held. The
owner can buy GDX in a single trade and know he has instant diversified
gold-stock exposure. GDX is also very valuable for people who
don’t have the time or knowledge to research individual gold
stocks. They can deploy capital into GDX, own a basket of gold stocks,
and they are good to go.
As a speculator, I find GDX
the most exciting as an options vehicle. For years gold-stock traders
lamented the fact that no stock options traded on the HUI. So in
the past we had to resort to synthetic HUI options, trading an
individual stock like Newmont Mining (NEM) that closely followed the HUI
statistically. Although this was an acceptable workaround, it was
really risky. Any surprise NEM-specific news could blow our options out
of the water even if the HUI was conforming to our expectations.
But GDX not only follows
the HUI nearly perfectly statistically, it is built much like the HUI
internally. So any company-specific news on a component will barely be
felt by GDX just like it would barely be felt by the HUI. Today a
robust options market has sprung up around GDX. If you buy a GDX option
today, it is effectively the same thing as buying a hypothetic HUI stock
option. GDX options are a godsend for gold-stock options traders.
In addition to having good
volume and liquid prices, GDX options are very granular. You can buy
options with strike prices at every $1 of GDX’s
price, which is very nice to precisely tailor options trades to your
expectations. Often individual gold stocks will have options strike
prices spread out over every $2.50 or even $5 of a stock’s price.
This makes it difficult to buy at-the-money calls or puts. With
nice tight $1 strikes, this issue is virtually nonexistent in GDX though.
With GDX now the ultimate
gold-stock-sector options trading vehicle, and an avenue for instant sector
diversification for those who can’t afford the capital or research time
to buy individual gold stocks, I am really impressed by this young ETF.
GDX really makes gold-stock trading a lot more accessible for new
traders. I really wish it would have launched earlier in this gold
bull, as it would have saved us early traders a lot of angst.
For me personally, GDX is
primarily a synthetic-HUI-options trading tool. GDX essentially is
the HUI and trades as such. But in the markets, experienced and prudent
traders can often handpick a better superior-performing group of stocks than
any given index. If you are comfortable with individual stocks rather
than baskets, you can custom build a tailor-made portfolio of elite gold and
silver stocks that should handily outperform the GDX and the HUI.
Thus at Zeal we spend a
great deal of time researching individual gold stocks to find our favorites with the highest potential to soar along with
this gold bull. We just finished a deep research project looking into
over 100 gold stocks worldwide. After four months and many hundreds of
hours, we whittled them down to our 20 favorite
gold-producing stocks. Our new fundamental report on these elite stocks
is available today for a nominal fee. Buy it today and build your
own custom portfolio of high-potential gold producers!
With so much irrational
fear and pessimism swirling around gold stocks today despite the magnificent
$800 gold, it feels like mid-August right before this sector soared. So
if you want to buy GDX or individual gold stocks on the widespread fear that
often marks major interim lows, today looks like a great time. The gold
stocks will have to soar far higher before greed once again returns to this
sector near the next major interim top. Take advantage of others’
irrational fears to buy bargains today. To see which individual gold
stocks we are buying now, subscribe to our acclaimed monthly newsletter.
The bottom line is GDX is a
wonderful tool for gold-stock traders. It has finally been in existence
long enough to prove its multi-faceted utility in the crucible of real-world
markets. It provides instant diversification for small capital pools
and those who cannot buy or are not interested in owning individual gold
stocks. It has also grown into the ultimate gold-stock-sector options
vehicle, a delight for speculators.
The GDX
gold-stock ETF is composed like the headline HUI, trades like the HUI, and
offers returns like the HUI. While it isn’t designed to track the
HUI explicitly, it may as well be. Traders who have long longed for a
HUI proxy tradable in ordinary stock accounts can rejoice. Our wait is
over. GDX has the potential to accelerate and revolutionize gold-stock
trading much like the QQQs did for tech-stock
trading.
Adam
Hamilton, CPA
Zealllc.com
December
7, 2007
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information.
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comments, or flames? Fire away at
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messages though and really appreciate your feedback!
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