German Election September 24: What are the Coalition Possibilities?

Angela Merkel would like her CDU/CSU to have an outright majority. That does not look possible according to the latest German Election Opinion Polls.

Her second preferred choice, a coalition with FDP is not looking very likely either. Is another “Grand Coalition” in the works?

Coalition Math

• CDU + SDP (Black Red): Another “Grand Coalition” 61%
• CDU + FDP + Greens (Black Yellow Green dubbed “Jamaica”) 51.5%
• CDU + FDP (Black Yellow): 45%
• CDU + Greens (Black Green): 43.5%
• SPD + FDP + Greens (Red Yellow Green dubbed “traffic light”) 38.5%
• SPD + FDP + Greens + Die Linke (red red Green Yellow) 48.5

46% Still Undecided

As of August 23, Politico reported Almost Half of German Voters Undecided.

Forty-six percent of German voters do not know who to vote for in the September 24 parliamentary election, according to a poll published in Wednesday’s edition of newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine.

The newspaper said the share of undecided voters this close to an election was higher than at any point in the past 20 years. Yet at the same time, 45 percent of those surveyed believe the outcome of the election is already decided — the highest percentage since German reunification.

It takes 50% to form a government.

But all of the other parties will not form a government that includes Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the anti-immigration, eurosceptic. Merkel has also ruled out Die Linke.

Unless CDU/CSU plus FDP cannot top 50%, forming a government is likely to take months.

If AfD and Die Linke get a combined 25% of the vote or more, coalition possibilities shrink.

Almost anything can happen, including new elections, if SDP refuses to enter a coalition.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock