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Many
observers to the wild gyrations, deep contortions, extreme measures, and
other bizarre activity in the government and banking arenas are suffering
from severe confusion. The public is alarmed, even frightened, by the
sequence of events, without much benefit of comprehension of what is
happening or which clans are in control. The degree of deception hit a peak
during the TARP Fund creation and disbursement, done behind private closed
doors for the replenishment of sacred preferred stock, that bridge between
corporate bonds and stock equity. The deception hit a very high pitch with
the financial titan failures, the entire string of them. It has never stopped
since. The economic data and promising forecasts (mere marketing group
propaganda) featured Green Shoots, Jobless Recovery, and the totally vacant
Second Half Recovery that is useful every initial six months to sway the
ignorant masses. Just what is happening is difficult to describe succinctly.
But the main description reads like an obituary. The most recent and visible
distortion is not of price inflation, which has zoomed at 7% annually for a
couple years, but rather the Institute of Supply Mgmt. The ISM index has
somehow registered a slight increase from July to August, despite almost
every single regional index faltering badly. See the careening Philly Fed,
from plus 5.1 to minus 7.7 in the latest month. They ignore the weak
components and present a distorted aggregate, much like retail sales.
The
US banking sector died in September 2008. It has not acted like a credit
distribution apparatus in two years. The US Federal Reserve has served almost
the complete function, filling the gap like with the decaying commercial
paper market. Its several dozen liquidity facilities testify to its urgent
need to act as banking system substitute, since the real portion lies in the
morgue. The major 100 banks in the US are almost without exception
insolvent, and thus do not lend. Sure, they boast a positive book value,
but only after given permission to use phony FASB accounting rules. They can
declare their assets at any value they wish. In fact, on many debt securities,
they actually declare unrealized losses as gains. See the Credit Value
Adjustment scheme, an utter travesty and shameful practice mocked by
accounting professors. The FDIC came out this week to announce the Q2 list of
problem banks went from 775 in number to 829, from Q1. Hardly evidence of a
recovery. The USEconomy suffers from a credit strangulation since the banking
system at the upper levels is dead, simply stated. The main thrust of the
limp activity is monetary creation, banker welfare, absurd programs, and war
spending. The more money the clownish hapless awkward leaders throw at the
problem, the more the Gold price will rise. Each quantum policy step lifts
the potential Gold price another $1000 per ounce.
This
article is an attempt to briefly describe what is happening to the United
States, from an aerial perspective, regarding the foremost poorly told
events, better description of critical event factors, the lost generation of
industry, the official investment by the USGovt in profound failure,
the confusion from broadening collectivism, the absence of a solution toward
restructure and remedy, and what actual solution might include. The popular
debate once centered on the banks too big to permit a failure, but that
debate became distracted by the flow of events. Only liquidation of the
biggest banks can enable a recovery, period!! Of course, the process
is complicated, especially politically. Actually, it is more than political,
since the big banks control the USGovt. The response reaction from
gold & silver will give loud messages to systemic failure, as money is
wasted, invested in failure, and directed to the elite troughs. One can argue
that no remedy or restructure is even attempted!!
REAL
STORY BEHIND FOUR FAILURES
The Bear
Stearns episode was the prelude to the failure story, the opening
act, the clue for the death of the US banking sector. Its story was a mere
partial truth, one that avoided all the inner circle rivalries and hate
relationships. The firm did not participate in the general rescue program
for LongTerm Capital Mgmt in 1998. It was singled out for execution, a kill
at a later date. The Bear Stearns failure was a murder execution for its
long gold position and short USDollar position, if truth be told. Wall Street
never enjoys or benefits from telling the truth. Deception is its calling
card. The Gold price was prevented from finding a much higher legitimate
value, from continued control after Bear Stearns was removed from the clique.
The American
Intl Group episode was disguised from its true nature as a Goldman
Sachs bailout. In fact, the record has been somewhat clearly told that the
AIG nationalization enabled GSax to be first in line for credit default
contract redemptions, at full price. They saved $11 billion in the
nationalization and butting in line. There are advantages to acting as the
USDept Treasury administrator. Many other big banks had favorable redemptions
on similar insurance contracts. The wreckage of the entire US banking
sector was thus covered up from the insurance perspective, preventing a
credit derivative blowup. The Gold price did not react from a failure
motive, as much as a perceived systemic risk motive. The over $100 billion in
covered losses to AIG so far is just the beginning of investment in failure.
The USGovt is managing the credit derivatives from under its rickety broken
rotten wing. But Gold does react to the waste of money, the debasement of
money, and not so much from inflation entering the system. That comes later.
The Fannie
Mae episode was one best described as averting either a mortgage bond
default or a severe jump in mortgage rates emanating from the sewage
treatment plant. In pulling off the nationalization of the wretch, the Wall
Street controllers thus placated a crucial angry mortgage creditor. China
had been selling all summer long in 2008 its Fannie Mae and other GSE bonds.
China forced the USGovt hand as they made it explicit from nationalization.
Rumors had been flying in late 2007 and early 2008 that China was accumulating
USAgency Mortgage Bonds as part of some contract toward colonization. No
more! The USGovt guarantee was implicit but soon made more explicit. The $170
odd billion in covered losses so far is just the beginning of investment in
failure. But Gold does react to the waste of money, the debasement of money,
and not so much from inflation entering the system. That comes later.
Lehman
Brothers was an unwilling sacrificial lamb for
its prominence in the mortgage arena. They were an important player that got
in the way. The Lehman killjob created a dustup distraction in which JPMorgan
was funded $138 billion in a grand reload with USGovt money, to maintain its
commodity stranglehold. They were running low on funds to defend the system
and to keep America strong, the envy of the world, the beacon of hope. Also,
Lehman owned a significant silver position that had gone out of control, in
danger of being the object of a critical short covering event that would have
rendered huge damage to JPMorgan. Therefore, JPMorgan took it over and
assumed its responsibility. They drove the silver price down from $19 to $10
in the ensuing months, with no objection, criticism, or suspicion of
impropriety from regulators, legal authorities, or anybody residing in South
Manhattan. However, the Silver price returned to face the same $20 level,
which it will easily overcome and penetrate in the next few months. Smart
investors bought the silver offered at discounted price for several
consecutive months.
INVESTMENT
IN FAILURE
For
vivid indications of failure, notice the slide into recession even after 20
months of near 0% official interest rate. The USFed has no more weapons
except the Printing Pre$$, which it will reluctantly use, perhaps
somewhat aware of the dire immediate consequences. Central bankers are
soiling their skivvies, in utter fear. For vivid indications of failure,
notice that the housing sector and commercial property sector do not respond
to record low mortgage rates. The average 30-year mortgage rate across the
land stands at 4.40%, silly low but uselessly low. Refinance is not an
option, given the valuation declines in loan collateral. The ultimate problem
is insolvency laced like cancer throughout the entire system, from housing,
to households, to banks, to government fiscal situation, even to industry
(long gone). The USFed cannot treat insolvency. Only liquidation can. The
human toll has been great, from chronic joblessness, to mortgage
delinquencies, to home foreclosures, to lost pensions, to vanished financial
security. For vivid indications of failure, notice the 2.5% to 2.6% long bond
yield in USTreasurys, the last bubble. The US bankers who have run the
land for two decades have run out of asset bubbles to blow. Each
growth period of 5 to 7 years has been driven by the next asset bubble in
sequence, not industrial development or output. Money is being ruined at a
rapid rate, and precious metals indicate the pace and severity. As the great
bond bubble dissipates from whatever pinprick, the gold rally will move from
quiet bullish to monster bullish, complete with a skyrocket event. In the
next phase, do not be surprised to see the Gold price rise over $100 on a
single day. The financial networks will be bug-eyed and speechless.
Plain
language works best at this point. The USGovt, as demonstrated by its
nationalizations, big bank rescues, grand aid packages (car industry), and
support of extreme measures, has invested heavily in failure, fraud, and
banker elite welfare otherwise called pillage. They also has invested in
sacred wars at great cost. The USGovt has not invested much at all in
business, jobs, family, and life. The flimsy shallow vacant home loan
programs exemplify the lack of support and aid for the public. In fact, an
argument can be made that the government and banking leadership (tightly
twisted together) have contempt for the People. The current administration
features a return of failed policy makers, as seen in Robert Rubin, the
modern day Rasputin in control of puppet strings. His past failures qualified
him for near total banking policy control. As a result, the public harbors
growing resentment from the inequality of bailouts and benign neglect to
households. The failure to individuals is stark with pink slips and job loss.
As long as weekly jobless claims exceed 450 to 470 thousand, nobody will give
much credence to any USGovt verbage about a recovery. Failure is in the wind.
GOLDEN
RESPONSE TO FAILURE
The
failure pertains to the US financial sector in its entirety, from banking
system to credit market. The failure is exacerbated by wasted expenditures
toward what are called rescues and stimulus, but is actually banker welfare
payouts, their toxic bond redemption, and nationalization of failed entities.
Worse, the key nationalized firms are laced with $trillion fraud. Fannie Mae
remains the central clearing house for several $trillion fraud schemes. In
the wake of failure has come round after round of badly spent funds. It is
hard to call it money when it pours off the Printing Pre$$ without recourse,
without disclosure, and without accountability. Naked bond shorting, failures
to deliver bond sales, and extreme interest rate swap enforcement made for a
witch's brew of grand market interference, ruin, and fraud. A prevailing
sentiment persists. The consensus lunatic misguided notion is that when the
volume of stimulus and rescues is sufficiently higher than a certain
threshold level, that recovery follows, especially after a certain period of
time. Almost no thinking takes place. The leaders are simply throwing money
at the problem and crisis, responding to the next critical focal points.
Never has policy been so absent, misguided, and bereft of the thought
process. We are witnessing a syndicate in survival mode, in a desperate quest
to save the system they exploit so thoroughly.
In
response, the Gold price potential rises as USGovt funds are wasted without
any path to remedy or recovery. The
extreme usage of the Printing Pre$$ in the next round of Quantitative Easing,
dubbed QE2, will set up crippling explosions. Each round of stimulus or bank
rescue or Dollar Swap Facility setup actually puts the potential Gold price
another $1000 higher. The future years will see at least $3000 Gold price,
all in time. The 1980 peak Gold price, adjusted by an accurate price
inflation accounting, like the Shadow Govt Statistics series, is more like
$7000 per ounce. My $3000 forecast figure is a conservative number. Anyone
who disputes and challenges this forecast, must provide evidence that remedy,
restructure, and reform are anywhere present in the current landscape. They
are not. Money is being created and wasted at a colossal pace, and while
it is wasted, the Gold price in increasingly debased US$ terms rises.
Favorable
upcoming months for the Gold price are finally upon us, especially September.
We are at its doorstep of a strong season. A major upward thrust is likely as
a holiday present before January. The pattern is even stronger with silver. The
month of September is especially strong, almost twice as much gusto packed
into it as any other month, the next being December and January. In a
five-month stretch, three of the 12 best months are lined up, directly ahead.
Last year, the 2009 gold price jumped from $950 to $1200 between late August
and end December. Expect something similar this year. Also, institutions like
the JPMorgan monster queen might face a date with the guillotine in their
silver trading desks. If the ultra-strong seasonality for silver does not
catapult its price over $20 by January, it will be a big surprise.
SUPERIORITY
OF GOLD AMONG COMMODITIES
Prepare
for a breakout in the Gold price, fully forecasted, fully forewarned. A
tremendous upleg move comes. The consolidation between the $1065 and $1250
prices has taken nine months. The range between $1175 and $1250 has been
tighter in the last two months. A big move is indicated, as the seasons offer
a firm wind from behind. Notice the MACD crossover, as moving averages are
aligned nicely, but calmly, certainly forcefully. A global recognition of
monetary system breakdown is in progress. The QE2 launch, complete with
further ruinous debasement of money, is imminent. The unexpected effect that
will take inept myopic central bankers off guard is the powerful rise in the
Gold price. It foretells of the next powerful phase of the financial crisis
that has been covered in detail in the Hat Trick Letter, gory detail. Dan
Norcini, the gold, currency, and commodity analyst, put it so well. He said, "What
we are witnessing is the death throes of a debt based monetary system,
of which those presiding over it apparently have come to believe their own
delusions. The US public is learning what our grandfathers learned as a
result of the Great Depression. Debt is something to be avoided, not heaped
up and accumulated... Yet, all of this is lost upon the monetary lords who
have their noses so close to the ground sniffing out the scent that they
cannot see that the path ahead leads off the edge of an abyss, from which
there is no escape."
The
Gold & Silver charts are both bullish, but in different ways. Gold is
lifting off a base, while silver has surged upward out of a pause pattern, as
described last week. Distrust for the monetary system has gone global. Gold
& Silver are accepted as reserve assets, the best safe haven not tied to
counter-party debt risk. Watch the Gold/Oil Ratio, which is poised to rise
noticeably. Gold is the commodity king, namely it is money. The worldwide
recession will keep the crude oil price subdued until the USTreasury bubble
pops. Then, at that time, several major commodity hedges will jump in price,
rendering a cost shock to the USEconomy. It is broken to the core, broken
at the foundation, broken from grotesque imbalances, broken from vast
pervasive insolvency. An inflationary depression lies dead ahead! Notice the
recognition of Gold, its distinction as the king of commodities. The usual
accepted hedge against the USDollar in Wall Street and London accounts has
traditionally been crude oil.
After
the severe damage done to sovereign debt in Europe, a wave comes steeped in
crisis. Governments erroneously believe that they can inflate their way out
of the crisis that has roots firmly connected to debt inflation. This is
folly, as they will learn. Notice the King Gold, which is out-performing
crude oil. The Gold/Oil Ratio has turned up strongly since the spring months.
Deflation Knuckleheads will find they made serious analytic errors, when they
grouped King Gold with the commodities. What folly. Gold is money, and money
is becoming scarce. The current monetary system is debt in denominated form.
The ratio will rise toward 20:1 in the coming months. The USEconomy in
struggle, clear deterioration, even possible collapse, will keep the energy
prices down generally. The global monetary virus outbreak will lift the Gold
price to the heavens.
FROZEN
REACTION FROM POLICY
Much
of the business sector is frozen. Executives and managers are frozen in
inaction from inability to anticipate what comes next. The landscape of
regulations and official programs is too rapid, unpredictable, and illogical.
We see stupid stuff like Clunker Car Programs. We see disruptive stuff like
the Health Care Program. We see unpredictable stuff like the Home Purchase
Credit Program. We see uncertainty, like with the home tax credit return. The
biggest obstacle to business seems to be the Health Program monstrosity. It
forces higher costs upon businesses while officials claim the exact opposite.
Nowhere is the confusion greater than the housing and mortgage finance
markets. Investors are front running the bond trade, with anticipation of
USGovt monetization of more USTreasury Bonds and more USAgency Mortgage
Bonds. The prospect of QE2 has brought about a perception that lower mortgage
rates could come, and continue to come. The business sector cannot readily
hire in this uncertain illogical environment in flux, where leadership is
constantly being questioned. The home buyer demand was drawn forward,
leaving a late summer and autumn vacuum. See the 27% decline in existing July
home sales. The investment community is buying the USGovt guaranteed bonds,
ahead of the QE2 launch. Investment in business equipment and capital
formation is nearly non-existent. The USEconomy is frozen by erratic policy.
In fact, the Gross Domestic Product is negative, once 3% is subtracted from
the official downward revised 1.6% growth in 2Q2010. The subtraction is
required for entrance into the world of reality, where hedonic and other
productivity fudges must be removed.
A
GENERATION OF LOST INDUSTRY
This
is not a lost decade upcoming. The United States has suffered an entire
generation of lost industry from its systematic dismantling, forfeit, and
abandonment. The migration of industry began with Japan and the Pacific Rim
in the 1980 decade. It continued in the 1990 decade, along with the NAFTA
experiment with Mexico. Those border factories were removed with the advent
of China. It culminated in the 2000 decade, with the death blow from the Chinese
industrial expansion, often dubbed the Low Cost Solution. The entire
generation, especially since the Chinese climax, replaced US factory income
with service sector income, which included the finance sector from mortgage
processing, credit derivatives, leveraged structured finance, and other
financial engineering vehicles & structures. The emphasis on clean
industry and sophisticated economical development was nothing more than a
deceptive billboard to conceal the near total devotion to and dependence upon
inflation for economic growth, which backfired and killed the system. The
financial engineering offered no legitimate advancement to the society, and
certainly not to the USEconomy, except the automatic teller machine, an
observation made by former USFed Chairman Paul Volcker. His tenure was ended
by the way, as a result of vicious rumors of a cancer debilitation,
completely false stories spread by proponents of Alan Greenspan, a syndicate
priest of high order. The Greenspan Era justified the virtues of risk
offloaded in credit securities, hailed the sophistication of the system, and
heaped praise upon each other's priests, right before the system collapsed
from a flimsy and fraudulent foundation, leveraged inflation engines, and
absent industry.
THE
SOLUTION IS SIMPLE
The
secret to a legitimate solution is easy. The big banks must write down
their credit portfolios, and accept deep losses. If that results in liquidation, so be it!! Accounting fraud is
not a substitute for restructure. Nor is dispatching badly impaired assets to
the USFed, whose by all accounts is a Bad Bank Repository. Debate continues
on the need to create a bad bank for dead assets, when the USFed is precisely
that bank. Toxic assets held by the big banks must be liquidated. The phony
propped credit markets must be permitted to fail, and to find proper value
via equilibrium processes. Nowhere is equilibrium sought, as everywhere it is
avoided. The USGovt should exit and quit the game of stimulus, intervention,
and market distortion. The USGovt is delaying the inevitable. The financial
markets should seek their bottoms for clearing supply. The bank leaders must
be liquidated, removed from power, and face some prosecution. The Too Big To
Fail premise must be rejected. The Zombie Big Banks threaten the entire
system. If truth be told, they control the leadership of the USGovt itself.
Dead entities control the USGovt, lodged in a stranglehold!!
CONSTIPATION
WHEN NO LIQUIDATION
This
is remarkably simple economics analysis. Without substantial liquidation of
the badly impaired assets held in tremendous volume within the big banks,
further credit constipation will be the mainstay fixture. That asset clog
includes the vast bank owned properties from home foreclosures. The REO count
rises about 50 thousand homes per month, a figure roughly double from the
January level. Without major liquidation initiatives, expect continued Zombie
Big Banks cluttering space. Without major liquidation initiatives, expect
continued demands from the Zombies for large tracts of money. Without major
liquidation initiatives, expect continued $trillion fraud schemes with Fannie
Mae as nexus. Without major liquidation initiatives, expect escalated growth
of the USTreasury Bond bubble. In plain terms, the economic landscape and
credit system cannot recover without the plowing under of the Big Banks.
However, they control the USGovt, its finance ministry in the USDept
Treasury, and the USDollar Printing Pre$$ itself. The big banks will NOT
order their own death warrant, and face the financial gallows. To think
otherwise, even for the national good, is folly. It is like asking a heavily
armed bank thief in the middle of a crowded lobby, holding a few dozen
hostages, to shoot himself in the head instead, for the good of the people.
The credit engines of the USEconomy will not fire much at all unless the big
banks are liquidated, or at least much of their balance sheets is liquidated.
That would expose their deep insolvency and potentially lead to their
failure. A run on those banks by depositors, and a ruinous sale of their
corporate bonds by investors, would ensure the big banks death. They belong
in the morgue, for the national good. Capitalism demands their plowing
under to unleash hidden potential.
The
ball & chain dragging down and keeping down the big banks is the housing
market. The downward force of gravity is visible in the falling home prices.
The deteriorating USEconomy still pulls down the monetary platform, as the
credit portfolios are directly attached to the ball & chain. The
USEconomy was given the appearance of growth from the housing bubble between
years 2002 and 2006. Its asset bubble formed a foundation for the majority of
the USEconomy, and whose accompanying mortgage finance bubble provided the
liquidity to the system. In fact, the entire boom & bust served as vivid
indisputable evidence that the home is not a tangible asset, but rather a
financial asset, an abused asset. The mortgage foreclosure process is the
final proof. The true tangible assets are crude oil and precious metals.
Other commodities will be sacrificed in wholesale form in order to purchase
energy and precious metals. Energy is needed for commercial survival, while
gold is needed as bonafide safe haven for money.
GOVT
DILEMMA
The
USGovt finds itself managing a mangled menagerie of frozen fixtures, most of
which are totally broken. It is the great investor in failure and fraud. Its
actions cover up the fraud, from policy taken in full collusion. Should the
leaders give orders that result in formal suicide ceremony of the big banks,
a US version of harikari? Should the props be removed and force a USTreasury
default? A default will occur anyway in my view, since it is only delayed.
The USTreasury default will come as a result of trade war isolation, USDollar
vicious cycles in USGovt deficit monetization, a massive sudden USDollar
devaluation, or the USFed resignation from its Congressional contract amidst
$1 trillion losses. Expect all the above in combination, each linked. The
USFed already has compiled close to half a $1 trillion loss on its balance
sheet.
A
grand game of chicken by the USGovt and Wall Street control panel is taking
place. All official plans are predicated upon an economic recovery in the
United States. A great fan blows fake acidic money into the bankers trough,
but the monetary system erodes as its pillars suffer continued gradual deep
damage. The new debt, delivered as fresh paper, acts like acid on the capital
base of the entire USEconomy. As described in previous articles, the United
States possesses the worst economists in the world. They have no concept of
capital formation, no concept of what constitutes money, no concept of
legitimate income, and no willingness to liquidate the toxic assets that
prevent a restructure and recovery. The big hairball in the system is the big
banks. The American public cannot survive on a limited credit diet due to big
bank hairballs clogging the system.
HEIGHTENED
RISK OF USTREASURY BUBBLE
A
growing risk is palpable of migration away from USTBonds. It could come very
soon. After the housing & mortgage twin bubbles and consequent bust, the
last asset bubble has a little more ways to go. The last asset bubble is the
USTreasury Bond, the entire complex. In fact, the bubble extends to the
Fannie Mae bonds as well, since under USGovt guarantee. Perhaps a 2.0%
long bond yield will be the sentinel signal to abandon and sell, setting up a
bond bust. An extreme risk is present for the next important event to
frighten the horses that prop USTBonds. What will be the rattlesnake in the
sand? Foreign creditor sales in volume? A ramped up trade war? Harsh
criticism for improper USDollar printing in monetization schemes, finally in
the open? Recognition of a $1 trillion tab in war spending? A river of
hyper-inflation is lodged in the USTBond dam, whose walls are nothing more
than paper reeds held together by bad verbal glue, uttered by bank leaders
who increasingly lack credibility.
Witness
the failed central bank franchise system, and USFed Chairman Bernanke without
any tools left. Witness the systemic failure of the USEconomy (and Mexico
too). All USFed recovery scenarios depend upon a USEconomic recovery, which
itself is completely dependent upon a US housing market recovery and a US
banking system recovery. No recovery will come, since no Big Bank liquidation
will be permitted. Therefore the USFed will walk the pirate plank to a great
death of insolvency and ruin, which will spawn a USTreasury default, my
forecast made two years ago. It is more certain than ever before. The safe
haven is gold & silver. The USTreasury Bond grand dissipation, the
long bust process, will catapult the Gold price toward $3000, and suddenly.
The gold community will find great amusement in watching the reaction to the
naysayers and critics, except the world will change into something hardly
recognizable. It will turn into an ugly version of Mad Max, the movie.
Shortages and crises will abound. Chaos will reign. A form of darkness will
befall the earth.
Jim Willie CB
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