Big Picture Perspective:
Consider the 30-year graphs for gold and silver. Both peaked in
1980, corrected for 20 years and bottomed in 2001.
Following 9-11, official U.S. national debt substantially increased, while
the actions of the U.S. government, Federal Reserve, and commercial banks
continually devalued the dollar. Bond markets extended their multi-decade
bull run (yield decline) and stock markets are making all-time highs.
To levitate the stock market, total debt securities per the St. Louis Fed,
have increased from $16.7 trillion in 2001 to over $41.8 trillion in late
2017. Gold and silver have risen along with debt, bonds, and stocks.
9/30/2001
10/31/2017 Ratio
10 Year
Yield
4.57%
2.38%
DOW
8,847
23,377 2.64
Gold
$292
$1,270 4.35
Silver
$4.67
$16.69 3.57
Official national debt, all debt securities per the St. Louis Fed, most
stock markets, and consumer prices have risen exponentially. Some
prices, such as health care, have risen rapidly, while prices have declined
for televisions and other items.
Why? Dollars are created by the trillions as debt. Every newly
created dollar devalues existing dollars, SO PRICES RISE.
The powers-that-be like the system and pretend to care about the middle and
lower classes, but material change is unlikely.
PROTECT YOUR SAVINGS, RETIREMENT, AND PURCHASING POWER:
- Recognize that dollar devaluations will continue. Prices
will rise.
- Place savings and retirement funds in assets that rise
faster than purchasing power declines, such as most stocks for the past
eight years and gold and silver since 2001.
- Recognize that market leadership shifts from one sector
to another. The S&P 500 and other stocks have risen for eight years,
but they will correct. Gold prices will rally as capital flees the stock
market in search of safety and inflation hedges.
Example: The S&P 500 Index rose from a monthly close of 798 in
March 2009 to a monthly close of 2,575 in October 2017. Gold rose from
$292 at the end of September 2001 to $1,829 monthly close for August 2011.
Gold reversed in September 2011 and fell over 40% to its monthly low in December
2015.
The S&P 500 Index is over-valued in November 2017 and
vulnerable to a correction or crash. By most timing and
valuation indicators the stock market is too expensive. The monthly RSI
(relative strength – a timing indicator) shows a multi-decade high,
indicating vulnerability to a correction/crash.
Examine the graph of the S&P 500 Index over 30+ years.
The correction or crash may occur next week, next month, or next year, but it
will occur. If the Federal Reserve and global central banks had the ability
to prevent stock market corrections and crashes, the NASDAQ crash of 2000
would not have occurred. The devastation took 31 months as the Index dropped
over 80%. The S&P 500 crash of 2007-8 took 17 months as the Index dropped
about 57%.
MEDIUM TERM FOR GOLD AND SILVER:
In the medium term gold and silver bottomed in December 2015, broke
downtrend resistance, rallied and corrected.
More rallies and corrections will occur, but as long as debt
increases, Congress borrows and spends, and currencies are backed by nothing
tangible, currencies will devalue and gold prices will rise.
GOLD STOCKS UPDATE:
Gold and silver corrected from their 2011 highs to lows in late
2015. Gold and silver stocks fell further to a spike low in January
2016. Examine the graph of the XAU index divided by the S&P 500
Index to see the relative devastation of gold and silver stock prices.
Since the low in January 2016, the XAU nearly tripled in seven months, and
is now twice its low. When gold and silver stocks rally they can
quickly quadruple. They fall equally rapidly.
Maison Placements Canada Inc. listed their four strong buy
recommendations in “Gold: The Fiscal Hurricane.” Document is
available as a pdf from www.321gold.com
dated November 5, 2017. Those recommendations are:
Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, B2 Gold Corp, and McEwen Mining.
Symbols are: AEM, ABX, BTO and MUX. Graphs follow.
CONCLUSIONS:
- Politicians spend, debt increases, fiat currencies
devalue and prices rise. This process will continue.
- Protect your savings, retirement, and purchasing power
with assets that increase in value. Since 2011 stocks have been strong
while gold, silver and related stocks have fallen.
- Expect a reversal, perhaps soon. Stocks are
supported by central bank QE policies but, as in 2000 and 2008, crashes
happen. Gold and silver prices will rise as panic selling occurs
in global markets and bubbles implode.
- Years from now, gold and silver will crash from
much higher levels, and stocks will again rise. Investors often have
short memories.
Gary Christenson
ACT ACCORDINGLY!
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