Gold and the long term price points

Long Term TREND – Moving Averages (Blue 1212-Red 1213 = NEUTRAL

Blue Average must cross above Red for FULL BULLISH. Averages are within 1 dollar of each other. Long term trend near flipping BULLISH.

Long Term Observations

Gold tested the moving averages at 1209-1214 in July. It got as low as 1204 but closed the week above both averages keeping the long term trend neutral. We discussed a close below 1205 would not be good but gold held and has now rallied back to the 2011 downtrend line. It runs in the 1272-1298 zone area. The biggest resistance is 1272-1288 at the moment and then 1308-1322. A monthly close above these area’s would greatly increase the potential that the bear market is over. The moving averages are ready to turn bullish as well. This is yet another moment of truth for long term gold.

From time cycles it is important to note that the rally into 2011 lasted 144 months. July will be the 72nd month and half the time of the 2011 rally. If there is to be a 2nd half of the year that is meaningful, odds favor the low will occur in July. While certainly not definite, it happens enough times to keep a watch out for.

The last Long term window forecast was for “the” low to take place between Dec 2015-March 2016 and December 2015 was the low so far. But with that forecast gold has to conquer the 2011 downtrend line. Until it does, I can’t rule out one more final low.

A monthly close above 1362 would be the highest odds favor that the BULL MARKET in gold is back on.