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London Gold Market Report
DOLLAR PRICES to buy
gold rose to a high of $1550 per ounce on Monday morning – less
than 2% off last month's all-time high – before slipping back slightly,
while commodities were mixed and European stock markets rose.
Negotiations towards a fresh bailout for
Greece continued, after an estimated 80,000 people protested in Athens
yesterday against government cuts and privatizations. The protests have been
running for 12 days.
Silver prices climbed to $37.54 per
ounce – a 3.6% gain so far this week.
The price to buy gold in
Sterling meantime held steady above £940 per ounce, after setting a
record high of £945.66 at Monday afternoon's London
Fix – and touching an intra-day record of £950 on the spot
market.
"With global liquidity still
rising, gold should push higher," says Walter de Wet, commodity
strategist at Standard Bank in London.
"Global liquidity is being driven
not so much by the Fed anymore, but increasingly by government borrowing."
"I think the odds are stacked in
favor of gold at the moment," reckons Darren Heathcote,
Sydney-based head of trading at Investec.
"The market's
still very sensitive to what's happening in Greece and Europe, and at the
same time sensitive to US data," he adds, referring to last week's news
that the US economy added fewer jobs than expected in May.
Plans to provide a further bailout to
Greece remain "on track", and would not involve debt restructuring,
acting head of the International Monetary Fund John Lipsky
said Monday, as the debate continued over how much of the burden private
sector debt holders should share.
The additional aid package –
reported in Monday's press as likely to exceed €100 billion –
will be discussed at a meeting of European finance ministers on June 20.
Any default by Greece would represent a
"Lehman Brothers catastrophe" Olli Rehn ,
EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner, told reporters Monday, since
Europe's banks – many of which hold Greek debt – remain "fragile".
While it rejects calls for Greek
restructuring, the European Central Bank "would consider [it]
appropriate" to encourage investors to buy new Greek bonds to replace
maturing ones, said ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet
Monday.
"[But] there is no such thing as
being a little bit pregnant," countered IMF senior representative Bob Traa in a speech in Athens.
"Once you unleash a restructuring
scenario, this [would create] untold problems not just for Greece but also
for the Euro area."
Meantime in Germany "nobody is
really enthusiastic about new financial aid for Greece", Reuters quotes
an unnamed member of parliament from chancellor Angela Merkel's camp.
"There is a widespread feeling of
helplessness."
Over in Athens, Greek prime minister
George Papandreou says he would, if necessary, consider holding a referendum
on austerity reforms.
Papandreou faces dissent from within his
own socialist PASOK party, some of whom have demanded each individual part of
the austerity plan be handled in a separate vote.
"Even if [Papandreou] gets the
medium-term economic plan through parliament, the political turmoil is likely
to continue as a second bailout will also require a parliamentary vote,"
says Wolfango Piccoli,
London-based analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
Away from the European debt crisis, a
senior official at China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange –
the agency through which Beijing has opted to buy gold in the past
– warned Tuesday of the "economic and political risks in excessive
holdings of US Dollar assets."
"The United States has taken an
expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate economic growth, and...may find it hard to resist the policy temptation of
weakening the dollar abroad and pushing up inflation at home" said Guan
Tao, head of SAFE's international payments department, in comments that were
subsequently removed from the website on which they appeared.
Ben Traynor
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