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Gold Report ~ July 29 2015
Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need close above 1172-1182 for higher TREND.
Short Term ~Bearish– market should be near a short term bottom at 1070-1080.
Initial Resistance 1103-1113 2nd tier 1128-1138
Support 1080-1090 2nd tier 1040-1150
Resistance has been listed at 1115-1122 and the high since the last update has been 1108. Support has been listed at 1080-1090 and the low has been 1077.
The greatest crisis we face is the destruction of liquidity that government is causing by their hunt for loose change. Their desperate need for money is tearing the world economy apart at the seams. Even in Europe, the attempt to force a political union upon people by denying them the right to vote is ripping apart the cooperative connections established following World War II with the Treaty of Rome. The forced monetary and political union in Brussels undermines what they were trying to create – European Peace. (Martin Armstrong)
The game is afoot to eliminate CASH. According to reliable sources, Maestro is seriously under attack. In Germany, Maestro was a multi-national debit card service owned by MasterCard and founded in 1992. Maestro cards obtained from associate banks and can be linked to the cardholder’s current account, or they can be used as prepaid cards. Already we see the cancellation of such cards and the issuing of new debit cards. Why? The new cards cannot be used at an ATM outside of Germany to obtain cash. Any attempt to get cash can only be an advance on a credit card. (Martin Armstrong)
The CME has closed floor trading, which I contend will add to the crisis in LIQUIDITY. It is true that the argument has been that the floor traders amount to only a small percentage of the actual trading volume. However, they provide liquidity when there are gaps in electronic trading. In the process, many contracts have been eliminated and/or replaced with mini-contracts for retail. There are no more Dow futures contracts. The closure of so many contracts reflects the real crisis we have in LIQUIDITY. (Martin Armstrong)
Interest rates
Medium Term – Neutral
Moving averages 21.12 – 21.07
We have been watching interest rates for a clue that higher rates are coming. For a brief moment rates moved above the 34 year green trendline to the next line resistance just above it and rates peaked and have now moved lower back under the green trend line. Now the key is whether the moving averages become support. The blue line has slightly moved above the red but just by 5 ticks. If the pullback supports the moving averages and then closes back above the green line, the key is going to be that white line just above it. If rates move above it, around 26 then the trend will turn to higher rates on the medium term. We’re not sure if gold will drop one more time, but the key is that once rates begin to move higher, gold should not be far behind with a bear market low. The key target date for a gold low remains Oct 2015 – June 2016. However, that doesn’t mean it will be exactly then as that is the most likely time and standard deviation. The key is we are getting closer to that time frame. That’s why it will be important to watch rates when they do give a signal that the medium term has turned up. The pullback has been due to a flight to quality as stock markets have been under pressure since China buckled. Odds favor the pullback in rates will find support at the moving averages or just below them at the white trend line.
 
Gold Short term
Gold is finally getting support at the short term blue 89 hour moving average. The next challenge is the green line at 1103 and the resistance line. Resistance will be 1098-1108 over on Wednesday. Options expiration is over for August and the move out of August Futures is underway. Short term cycles are due and the seasonal turn in miners and gold is also due. Odds favor a short term rally to mid-August should take place. Friday is the last day of the month and thus next week begins August. A lot of indicators are at extremes and thus a bounce is most likely underway. Any pullbacks should find support in the 1080-1087 area. In summary, we should see a move to 1103-1108 and then we will see.
Gold since the 2014 peak
Looking out a bit further, it seems gold has formed a price channel that finds support near this 1080 area. On this view it is not out of the question for gold to make a move back to the 1140-1155 area where the breakdown occurred. Odds on this chart also favor support in the 1075-1080 area.
Cycles
The next cycle turn is due July 31st (plus or minus 72 hours). That means the window for a turn began today and will run until August 3rd. Odds favor a low to develop that should be the summer low. Every now and then we get a turn outside the window as there is no indicator or cycle measurement that meets its window each time. Still, its best to anticipate one more dip towards 1070-1080. If we get one it should provide a turn higher into Mid August.
HUI
Medium Term – Bearish
Medium Term Moving averages – 167. – 173
Intermediate Term Moving averages – 131 – 137
On a medium term basis, the next support is that yellow line near the 90 area. Gold stocks have now entered the fifth and final wave down. Either the yellow line holds or a COMPLETE retracement back to where the bull market started in 2001 is going to occur. For now, the potential to move to the 90 area remains as the most likely MEDIUM term scenario. On a shorter term basis, a two week low should be forming between now and mid next week.
Gold Medium Term
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1350 – 1429
Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1196-1203
Gold is trying to from support at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market. Odds favor gold will attempt a bounce here, but on a medium term basis, there is still no evidence that this will be the final low. Not that it is out of the question, but its not the odds favored point.
Just the same, odds are high here that gold should hold the 1040-1080 area and at least try a rally attempt during August. As long as we are below the dual yellow downtrend line, the medium term remains bearish.
GOLD ETF GLD
Moving Average Trend ~ 108.39 – 109.69 –bearish
GLD is also trying to find support at the 105 area we have highlighted in the last few reports. Resistance is the 106 area and then 108-111. The short term trend remains down, but a short term bottom could be forming.
GDX
Intermediate term Trend 15.50 – 16.87 ~ Bearish
Resistance is at 16.50-17.20
GDX has broken the 2008 lows and until we reverse back above it the trends remain down. On a shorter term basis, price should bounce back and fill the gap and test the moving averages.
What next ?
While the trends remain down in gold, we should be nearing a summer low in gold and the miners. Odds are high that we should see a bounce into Mid August. We can still move lower into early next week, but overall a bounce to mid-August should be in the cards.
Bottom Line
It’s best to remain bearish overall but a bounce of some type can very well develop here.
We are getting pretty close to the end as metals and metal stocks are all in their 5th and final wave down of this bear market.
All trends remain down in gold, but a short term bounce here would not be a surprise.
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