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Gold Short term
We tested 1190 so far on this pullback but nothing more. Then we shot up to 1240, only to come back to 1202 before the move back to 1222 area. Support remains near 1180-1190. As long as we stay above 1205, the overall short term trend will be up. A close below 1205 and odds favor we test the 1180 area. On the upside, if we get above 1228, then there is still resistance at 1235-1240 and then 1255-1265. A MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE 1255 would be big for the continuance of the upside.
 
Gold Short term Cycles
The next Cycle is due Feb 22nd (plus or minus 72 hours). That means that odds are 70% that gold will begin to move higher again after Feb 25th. The last cycle began early and finished right near the post 72 hour period. Any pullback to 1180 this week would be viewed as a short term buying opportunity.
In summary, gold has burst into the 2015 uptrend channel and as long as we remain inside the channel the trend is up. Odds remain the upside action is in play as we make what looks like another blue cycle low.
HUI
Medium Term – Neutral
Medium Term Moving averages – 122 – 126
Intermediate Term Moving averages – 146-138— Bullish.
The intermediate term trend remains bullish since Jan 28th and the medium term trend has moved to neutral as of Feb 1st. As long as we remain above 120-129 on a weekly basis the medium term has been neutralized.
Support is now 144-150 and 120-126. As long as we are ABOVE 129 trends remain up. Any pullback to 140 should provide strong support. Any close above 166 would favor we are heading for 180-185 next. The trend remains UP.
Long Term Gold Stocks
On a longer term basis, the chart below shows the entire bear market in gold stocks. The current downtrend line is perhaps the most important line of all to take out. This would show that the current rally’s momentum is reversing the huge selloff. This is a massive bullish flag formation. But it needs the follow thru now.
Gold Medium Term
Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361
Long term Moving averages 1224 – 1312
Medium Term Trend ~NEUTRAL
Moving Averages 1117-1126
The big news technically is the dual downtrend yellow line got taken out and prices exploded to just under the 38% retracement area in gold. That is the last resistance on the weekly chart until the 1309-1322 and then near 1400.
As long as we remain above the moving averages (1117-1126) the uptrend that started in 2016 remains in play. Since April of 2014, we have listed at the top of the report that we need a monthly close above 1255 in order to come out of bearish mode and move to neutral. The weekly close was 1247 so far in February (intraday was 1263).
PULLBACK SUPPORT IS THE FIRST YELLOW LINE AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST SUPPORT ATTEMPT THERE near 1180-1200. IF we hold that dual yellow line, gold’s upside will still have potential for a total medium term trend change.
In summary, the top dual yellow line is support, in between the lines is neutral and a close BELOW THE LOWER DUAL YELLOW LINE will put KEEP the bear trend in gold still in play. Look for the upper dual yellow line to provide SUPPORT and then we’ll see if gold can mount an attack back above 1255.
Dow Jones (US STOCKS)
US Stock Market – Medium Term Trend has moved from Bearish to Neutral.
The US stock market is trying to climb back to the broken support lines. It would take a monthly close above Dow 17300 to neutralize the downtrend that is underway. On the downside, a monthly close below Dow 15300 would favor the next down leg has begun. Unless we get a miracle rally to month end, the Dow goes from bullish to neutral on the 29th if we are below Dow 17300.
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