Gold testing upper resistance points on short and medium term

Gold short term

Gold has moved higher to the next resistance level of 1172-1188 but has yet to close above 1172. The Tuesday pullback to 1152 was thwarted convincingly and price has move back to resistance. A close above 1172 and then 1188 would warn of 1211-1222 as the next target.

Support is 1152-1158 and 1136-1142.

Cycles

The next cycle turn is due now Oct 12th (plus or minus 72 hours). We discussed that a move above 1154-1158 would lead to a move to the 1172-1188 and we have reached 1180.

We are now at the red cycle and odds favor (75%) that we will see a high today or tomorrow. That still leaves the 25% potential that price can continue to rally until months end. Unfortunately, there are no absolutes in trading, only odds. Look for resistance at the red line (200 day moving average) near 1176 and then the upper trend line near 1188.

Gold Medium Term

Long Term Trend ~ Bearish since Oct 2013 @ 1361

Long term Moving averages 1295 – 1386

Medium Term Trend ~bearish – Moving Averages 1163-1180

Gold continues supporting at the 1080 price area and the 50% retracement of the entire bull market. Support remains that white line we bounced off on the lows and the three red lines under price. Until we crack below that level it is possible for gold to continue its quest higher at the moment. On a weekly basis, the 1172-1188 area is the resistance zone with 1211-1225 and 1258 as key reversal points. The dual yellow downtrend line is also key. As long as we are below that area, the downtrend on a medium term is still intact for now. On the downside, any weekly close below 1072 suggests the downtrend has resumed. Until then, it’s possible for gold to continue higher.