It is amazing to me that investors believe there is no inflation or risk of
energy price spikes as the Middle East deals with geopolitical turmoil and
Civil War. That complacent mindset may be changing rapidly. Oil is breaking
through the $100 a barrel mark, a key psychological price level.
The price of oil is an indicator of the success of the U.S. objectives in
the Middle East to create some sense of stability. The main objective of the
Obama Administration's "Arab Spring" to spread democracy is on the brink of
failure. We are far from achieving peace and stability in the Middle East.
Now we witness an emboldened Assad in Syria maintaining power, the fall of
the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt from a military coup and a heretofore stable
Turkey falling into chaos with increasing riots. Many of these countries are
known to have weapons of mass destruction. This instability in the Middle East
and around the world means investors should look for assets that maintain value
during chaotic time. Precious metals and energy could be one of the safest
areas to hedge against rising Middle East turmoil.
Be careful of a closure of the Suez Canal or the Strait of Hormuz. This could
cause oil and precious metals to spike higher. Do not be surprised to see gold
and silver which are down over the past two years make a "V" shaped reversal
shaking out all those who sold during this correction. Although I don't want
chaos to happen, many savvy investors believe this possibility is growing,
especially with oil now breaking $100. I believe now may be the best time to
protect oneself with precious metals, energy and really cheap junior mining
stocks.
While the lemmings are worried reviewing today's U.S. job numbers and fear
a Fed tapering, I see a much greater wildcard in the Middle East which could
send gold, silver and oil soaring by huge percentages. For many years, I forecasted
increasing turmoil in the Middle East between the Sunni and Shiite population
and the Ottoman and Persian Empire. Its nothing new. This war is thousands
of years old. See my article from over two years ago on the Middle East situation
by clicking
here...
Energy prices look like they are on the verge of a major price breakout on
geopolitical tensions in the Middle East combined with a U.S. economy that
many say is improving slowly. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) are lagging but have
a long history of moving in tandem during stressful geopolitical times.
I have recently
written about a potential rebound in coal as well. Coal is critical for
U.S. energy independence. It is dirt cheap and is a hated sector by fellow
analysts and the investment community as the consensus believes that coal
is dead. New regulations from the Federal Government and Obama Administration
have made coal very unpopular. Hardly anyone covers this sector right now,
which provides astute investors with discounted situations.
A recent Barron's
article highlighted the insider buying in the coal sector at a time of
extreme negative pessimism. This could indicate a bottom for the coal sector.
Coal giant Walter Energy (WLT) had 11 insider buys of over 2 million shares
most notably over $150k from CEO Walter Scheller. Natural Resources Partners
(NRP) had two insider buys. Another CEO of a junior U.S. coal producer in Alabama
bought 149,000 shares at the end of May. As the old saying goes, insiders may
sell for many reasons but they buy for only one ... potential profit.
I have learned to tread against popular opinion and that great wealth is found
during times like these when the consensus is bearish and follow the insiders
or the smart money. As Mark Twain said wisely, "Whenever you find yourself
on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect."
I see comments all across the media that natural gas is the future as it is
abundant and cheap. Do they not realize that natural gas over the past year
is up over 70%, outpacing the Nikkei and S&P 500?
When natural gas was cheaper some plants may have converted from coal to natural
gas, but now the price rise above $4 may mean this fuel source is becoming
just too expensive. Oil's price rise above $100 could put more pressure to
use cheap and abundant coal.
Do not forget that coal is still the most used source of energy in North America
and around the world. Natural gas is up 120% over the past 12 months, while
the rare earths (REMX) and coal (KOL) are down approximately 30% and oil (DBO)
and uranium (URA) are down 10%.
To those who believe that natural gas will replace coal and oil remember that
it would cost hundreds of billions of dollars to replace coal with natural
gas and decades for U.S. utilities to make such a transition if they choose
to do so, which is doubtful. The historical price of natural gas is much more
volatile than coal.
Although the U.S. has abundant shale oil reserves the rest of the world does
not and pays much higher prices. Major coal companies such as Peabody Energy
(BTU) is seeing increased demand from Asian nations who do not have large reserves
of natural gas.
Many are saying China is slowing in the short term. However I believe over
the long term China's expanding economy will need increasing amounts of cleaner
and higher quality coal both for thermal and metallurgical applications to
produce steel. The U.S. is blessed with abundant, high quality and cleaner
coal. In addition, Japan and Germany have been boosting their imports of coal
to record levels. They must make up for the power that was lost from nuclear
reactors that have been shut down after Fukushima.
Remember Japan was the largest importer of coal in the world before Fukushima,
even with all of its nuclear plants operating. Japan has been dealing with
a declining yen and rising natural gas prices. They may be forced to import
increasing amounts of cheaper coal and restart its nuclear reactors this month.
There are many emerging nations where people have no access to the electric
grid. Countries are looking to modernize their infrastructure. Coal is economically
viable for many of these nations.
Countries like India, which had a major power outage recently, need to import
cleaner coal from the U.S. as their domestic coal has high ash and sulfur,
which contributes to dangerously high air pollution levels. I know that the
natural gas boom in the U.S. is remarkable, but the infrastructure in many
parts of the country is not suitable for the utilization of the energy source.
When natural gas (UNG) hit record lows more than a year ago at $2, natural
gas plants were running at full speed and still coal needed to be used.
Fundamentally, coal is certainly not dead, but the coal equities are certainly
priced for the graveyard. Large coal miners like Peabody, Alpha Natural Resources
(ANR) and Arch Coal (ACI) trade for less than their liquidation value. The
large players have challenges. Underground coal mining is unionized and many
companies can't pay the costs of the benefits and pensions. The large companies
also have some lower quality coals that must be washed or stockpiled due to
increasing EPA standards.
Times are certainly tough for coal miners, but I believe in the long-term
viability of coal as a fuel source and that demand will grow going forward.
Asian demand is still very strong with coal growing almost 20% over the next
few years in this region. Despite these difficult times for the sector and
increasing regulations, there are coal companies with strong fundamentals and
cash flow.
Do not forget the increasing violence and geopolitical turmoil in the Middle
East and North Africa. A turn for the worse in this region may be driving oil
prices above $100 a barrel. The U.S. may cut back on oil imports and look to
turn to safer coal, which is abundant domestically and critical for energy
independence and self-reliance.
Disclosure: Author owns no securities mentioned in article.
