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According to
this report, there's no real reason to worry about what lies ahead:
"Obama
Urges Cabinet to Redouble Economic Efforts" (Associated
Press)
[President
Barack] Obama's spokesman discounted talk that the economy may be headed back
into recession, despite recent concerns of economists.
Press Secretary
Jay Carney said there is no question that economic growth and job creation
have slowed over the past half year.
But, Carney
told a White House briefing, "We do not believe that there is a threat
of a double-dip recession."
The recession
that began in December 2007 officially ended in summer 2009 and the economy
has seen growth since then. However, that growth has slowed to a trickle in
recent months.
Even with all
of the recent difficulties, Carney said: "We believe the economy will
continue to grow."
According to
this blog post, there's good reason to worry about what lies about:
"Cause
for Concern? Coincident/Lagging Continues to Fall"
(Economic Musings)
A few months
ago, I touched on the concept of how the coincident/lagging ratio can often
provide a leading indicator into economic activity. In my May post I
wrote:
“One of
the theories behind this ratio is that when the expansion is nearing its
final stages both sets of indicators will be rising,
but the increase for the coincident will be slower than the lagging hence the
ratio will fall.
Richard Yamarone notes in his book, The Trader's Guide to Key Economic
Indicators, that this ratio has fallen before every recession
since 1959.
...
An updated view of this ratio shows continued deterioration - all this
despite the fact that leading indicators continue to rise. Add this to
the list of concerns about a slowing economy.
Hmmm. I wonder
which one I should take seriously?
Michael J. Panzner
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