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As
you may know, I'm not big on charts. I don't like charts, since most
charts don't tell the full story of how much money they have printed up, and
will continue to print up in the future. But inflation-adjusted charts
can give a more accurate picture than nominal dollar charts.
Furthermore, since inflation is escalating rapidly, any charts made end up
having to be re-adjusted as inflation continues. However, a very
brilliant programmer, named Shelby Moore, who programmed www.miningpedia.com
to surpass my specifications, has figured out a way to use google's api to
create continuously adjusted inflation adjusted charts (these are not those,
not yet).
A nominal chart is just the numbers, and shows that silver hit a high
of $50/oz. in 1980. But that's not really accurate, since the
dollar is not an accurate measure. Since 1980, when M3 was $1.8
trillion, there has been a lot of inflation, and there's two ways to adjust
for that inflation.
The first way to adjust for inflation is through the government's CPI index,
or "Consumer Price Index" which is the "official"
inflation rate, but this excludes things like housing, food, and energy,
which "nobody needs", and it used hedonic adjustments, and
other sorts of lies, and thus severely undercounts inflation.
That's the first chart that shows silver peaked at $128/oz. in 1980 as
measured in 2008 CPI adjusted dollars.
Another way to adjust is by looking at M3, which shows a measure of money
creation inflation, which the government stopped reporting in the spring of
2006 when M3 was $10.3 trillion. A private company continues to keep
track, and now says that M3 is at $14 trillion, and increasing by about 20%
per year now. That's the second, SGS chart that shows that silve peaked
at $365/oz. in 1980, as measured in 2008 SGS adjusted dollars.
.
The other important adjustment that charts need is that they need to be log
adjusted, rather than linear. This way, they show similar rates of
change in the slope of the rises, so that you can compare growth rates.
These are good charts, but I believe we can expect Shelby to make even better
ones soon.
These charts show a better picture than I've seen elsewhere.
Silver is cheap, and has hardly moved up yet at all! Don't even think
about taking profits yet.
If you can't see the charts for some reason, visit
http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/charts.html
Jason Hommel
Silver Stock
Report
I have 2 major
resources on mining stocks to offer to you.
First, look at www.miningpedia.com It is a FREE comprehensive database of mining
stocks. Anyone can update or enter data, it's like wikipedia.com.
Miningpedia has replaced the "silver stock report" in that it is
doing the legwork on individual stock analysis that I used to do
manually. This frees me up to do what I like best, which is to write
commentary. My commentary retains the name, "Silver Stock
Report", but for individual stocks, please see miningpedia.com.
Second, I offer a
"look at my portfolio" for $50/month; where I share a peek at which
stocks I own, once a month. You can log in at any time, repeatedly, and
also see all my prior months
Please visit Silver Stock Report for specific stock
picks.
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