|
A BIG GOLD interview with John Hathaway, Tocqueville
Gold Fund
When John Hathaway spoke at the Casey's Gold and
Resource Summit in October, many of the audience came away feeling like they
were listening to Doug Casey, with his contrarian views, bold statements, and
laying much of the blame for our current problems at the feet of government.
Read what John, a seasoned investment pro and manager of the famously
successful $1.4 billion Tocqueville Gold Fund, has to say about gold,
precious metals stocks, and the future of the U.S. dollar.
Jeff Clark: John, give us your big-picture perspective
on why you're investing in gold.
John Hathaway: We launched the
Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) in 1998 when it was a very contrarian idea. I
always like to say it was the "Rodney Dangerfield" of investments
at the time because a lot of people laughed at us and we didn't get much
respect. It was essentially a very contrarian investment theme, and we did it
at a time when the markets were going nuts for dot-com stocks, which we
thought was absolute lunacy.
Our thesis is basically related to the lack of faith
that institutions, investors, and citizens have in paper money. That shift in
opinion has come in fits and starts but is the core reason gold has risen to
the extent it has. And until you have a significant restoration in terms of
confidence in paper money, gold should do very well.
Jeff: Some are calling gold a bubble.
John: Many people - I'd say most people - are not on board.
So to me it's not a bubble. Maybe it's on its way to being a bubble, but a
bubble has to be pervasive and ubiquitous and in every fiber of every
investment institution and every investor portfolio, as was dot-com and
housing, and we simply have not reached that stage. The best line I've heard
is, "A lot of people have had a first date with gold, but they still
haven't gotten to first base."
Jeff: [Laughs] That's good.
John: The fact is, people talk
about it because it's newsworthy. The price is rising and making news, but so
what? That doesn't make it a bubble. My thesis is that everyone should make a
strategic allocation to gold because it's the counterweight to paper money
that continues to lose credibility as a store of value.
Jeff: So the U.S. dollar is going a lot lower, in your
view?
John: Yes. You're beginning to see a lot of bilateral trade
deals between China and Latin American countries that have to be settled in renminbi. You're seeing similar moves on the part of
other trading partners completely bypassing the dollar in international
trade. You're seeing growing currency controls, particularly for capital
flows - Brazil and Thailand are two countries that come to mind. At this
point it's not chaotic, but these are precursors to what could become
chaotic. It seems orderly right now, but it could become more accelerated.
I'm also very skeptical that QE2 is going to do any
good. And if the economy is still stagnant a year from now, there's going to
be QE3, QE4, and QE5. I just don't see how anyone can not have some gold in
this environment.
Jeff: We think inflation ultimately wins the battle
over deflation. Do you agree?
John: For the most part, yes, but I don't think you have to
know which we'll get to decide if you should buy gold. If we have a
deflationary morass, where we're stuck in a liquidity trap for the next five
years, it will make the government do all kinds of crazy things that will
undermine the value of money, which will ultimately turn out to be inflationary.
This debate between deflation and inflation is always interesting, but I
don't think it matters if you're invested in gold. I think in either outcome,
gold wins.
Jeff: Are you as bullish on silver?
John: When you're talking about monetary issues, silver will
certainly benefit, particularly in an inflationary sequence. On the other
hand, if we have a deflationary sell-off like we had in 2008, silver is going
to underperform. So with silver I think you have to be more certain about the
outcome. Silver is more dependent on inflation to do well. That's because
silver has industrial uses, which would disappear or be greatly undercut in a
deflation.
Jeff: What about the other precious metals, platinum
and palladium?
John: Frankly, they're not a big part of the portfolio right
now. But we would consider them if we found good investment vehicles.
Jeff: Speaking of sell-offs, what odds do you put on us
having another one like in 2008?
John: The potential is there. I don't know where it would
come from, but one possibility would be another sovereign debt issue in
Europe. Another possibility is if the bond market had a serious setback and
triggered a run to liquidity, although there aren't that many places to go
anymore. Turmoil in the currency markets is certainly a concern to
policymakers. All of those things could bring about another worldwide margin
call like we had in 2008.
Jeff: So should we avoid gold stocks right now due to
the risks?
John: It depends on your risk profile. If you're
conservative and don't want to lose any sleep, I think you hold physical gold
as a hedge against the rest of your portfolio. But if you're more of a
risk-taker and see the macro-landscape as an opportunity, even though it's a
negative view, you definitely want to have exposure to gold stocks. And if
they're good companies, they should outperform the gold price because they're
generating a lot of earnings and cash flow at these prices. Then there's
M&A [Merger and Acquisition] activity, growth potential, and also
dividends. So there are a lot of things that a gold stock can provide that a
physical metal cannot, but it depends on the risk profile of the specific
investor.
Jeff: It's interesting you bring up dividends, because
gold and silver miners don't pay very high dividends. Do you think that could
change given the high margins the industry is seeing?
John: Good point. The returns on capital as an industry have
gone to very good levels, and if they're sustained, which obviously depends
on the gold price continuing to do well, they're going to have too much cash
to reinvest in the business. And the smarter companies will realize they have
an opportunity to become core yield stocks that have the same panache as,
say, Microsoft, IBM, Exxon Mobil, etc. If they play their cards right, they
could become core holdings of bank trust departments and open the door to an
entirely new audience of investors. That's how you'll get good valuations in
the gold stocks.
Jeff: Which brings up the possibility that maybe we
won't eventually sell all our gold stocks, if they start paying high
dividends…
John: Right. If the macroclimate is favorable for gold and
we don't blow up into a crisis where it's the end of the world, but instead
get a steady state of rising prices, then gold stocks could take on a
completely different identity. They're viewed now as mostly fringe
investments, but there was a time, back in the '60s and '70s, when they were
viewed as pretty standard stuff for an investment portfolio.
Jeff: How do you go about evaluating a mining stock?
John: We have a group of analysts here in New York who meet with management teams all year round. There isn't a
day that goes by that we don't have one, two, three, or more companies coming
to see us, and the reason is that the industry is generally capital intensive
and needs money. So we're sort of the go-to "piggy bank."
In addition to that, our guys know rocks and travel far
and wide to look at mine sites all over the world. I think we've logged over
half a million miles in the last five years going to god-awful places - this
is not a Club Med itinerary. So we're able to develop conviction about owning
some of these earlier-stage junior mining companies that aren't on the radar
screen of our competitors. In fact, our average market cap in the Tocqueville
Gold Fund is 60% of our peer group, which would indicate a weighting towards
earlier-stage companies.
Jeff: So the fund invests quite a bit in juniors.
John: Absolutely. We have to be careful with it, of course,
because they're less liquid and riskier, but the fact that we have this sort
of database of information from these meetings gives us a fair amount of
success in terms of picking the good ones. Obviously there are plenty we've missed
that are good, and there are plenty we've invested in that turned out not to
be so great, so it's always a bit of a trial-and-error thing. But we have
found that when we buy into a company at an early stage that meets its
milestones and advances from A to B and then from B to C, they'll need more
money and we'll continue to finance them along the way. That is the single
biggest source of our success.
Our turnover rate is very low - less than 10% - so we
basically take a long-term investment view on what we think are the very best
emerging mining companies. An example would be Osisko
(T.OSK), which we started financing five or six years ago when it was a
50-cent junior, and now it's a $14 company, which will be producing gold
within a year. That's the ideal progression we like to find.
Jeff: Any companies that look particularly undervalued
to you right now?
John: We have a big position in International Tower Hill
Mines (THM/T.ITH), which we feel is on the cusp of becoming recognized as one
of the next big major mines in North America. I would put Osisko
in the same sentence, though it's obviously much further along than ITH. I
wouldn't necessarily run out and buy these today, but those are big holdings
for us and have done very well.
Jeff: Any closing comments for gold investors?
John: Gold may go sideways for a while, which is my wish,
but who knows what's going to happen? Things could blow up, so trying to
trade in and out is a huge mistake, in my opinion. To me, the most
intelligent view of gold has to be from a strategic point of view. Get over
the fact that it's gone up a lot, then try to be as clever as you can about
legging into it. The bottom line is, you've got to own gold in this
environment.
Jeff: Good advice, John. Thanks for your time.
John: You're welcome.
Jeff Clark
Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource
Report
[John
Hathaway is only one of many fund managers who are betting on gold and major
gold stocks now, and the investing crowd is starting
to catch on as well. Get into the best of the best gold and silver producers
now – and take advantage of the BIG
GOLD Holiday Special. Sign up today for BIG GOLD at $79 per year and
receive one year of Casey’s Energy Opportunities FREE. But hurry, this
offer ends soon. Details here.]
|
