It's D-Day in USA (Presidential Election 2016)

It's D-Day (Decision Day) for USA.

Here's how gold looks right now.

Short term gold has support near 1277 (the 200 day average not shown on this chart).  However channel support is 1266-1272. If Trump starts jumping out ahead look for 1st resistance near 1290.   Additional resistance is the Hillary Gap from the Sunday night open at 1289-1308.  Additional resistance is the 1322 area.  A Trump win could be a Brexit moment.  If I knew that they couldn't rig the election, I'd be long gold because I think Trump is way ahead.  But if the Hillary wins,  then look for gold to drop to one of the support area's below on the chart.

Spot Chart

Looking at spot gold since the low has price still within the 2016 channel.  Support is the 200 day at 1279 (give or take a couple of bucks) and the downtrend line near 1266-1272.  Additional support is at 1260 and then at 1250 & 1211.   Resistance is t he 1308-1315 area and 1322-1325.  The potential for another gold Brexit type of move into next week can go either way depending on whether the USA election system gets rigged for Hillary, or whether the vote is so big for Trump that the control boyz have no choice but to give it to Trump. 

Cycles

The latest red cycle high is playing out and gold has reached the 200 day average.  On this chart,  it shows gold below the 2016 channel based on December Futures.   Regardless, any break below 1272 should lead towards 1255-1260.   A full break (and Hillary win) could send gold to 1210-1222.   The next cycle turn is due Nov 14th (plus or minus 72 hours).  I think its going to be an important turn for gold.  Without getting into details, I'd like to see a gold low at the blue cycle (as blue cycle lows are the bullish trend).   

Summary -  with this election, I think its wise to stand aside on short term trades until the next blue cycle (next week) becomes evident.  

Summary

On a short term basis, its best to stand aside until the next blue cycle comes into play.  If Trump wins,  the blue cycle will most likely invert to a high point in the 1322-1372 area.  If Hillary wins,  then its 1210-1250 come into play.   Lets see what happens and then we can make some projections for gold.

Bottom line -- gold needs to overcome the 2011 downtrend line two weeks in a row to consider a big move higher in gold.