|
Juniors will move once a
stock market bounce gets underway:
Whilst we spend most of our time talking about Gold in US Dollars we often fail to
recognize that this is truly a global business.
Chart 1 - 2006 Gold Production courtesy Gold Links
The Gold
Sheet Links show South Africa
as the top Gold producer in 2006, USA
second and Australia
closely third. Put another way, nearly 90% of Global production is not
denominated in US Dollars. That is 90% of the cost of mining is denominated
in local currency -- energy and labor being the largest components -- and
revenues to defray these expenses should be viewed in local currency as well.
Based on the following charts, margins in
local currencies have been improving in the Gold mining business:
Chart 2 - Gold (top) is higher in Aussie Dollars and Oil costs (below)
are lower
Chart 3 - Same with Gold and Oil in South African Rands
Chart 4 - And same again in Canadian Dollars
Not only do these positive economics affect
current producers but also smaller near-term producers and explorers as well.
The fact is, any company with access to Gold ounces
in the ground becomes potentially more economically profitable.
So why have we seen a disproportionate
upward revaluation in large producers relative to smaller producers and
explorers? Will this trend continue and what is the catalyst that will make
it stop?
We read with interest commentary that small
Gold companies will not be able to raise funds because of the current credit
crunch. This argument does not ring true with us since in our own experience
banks are more than willing to lend to profitable businesses albeit at a
higher cost.
The reason for the underperformance is
quite simply an increase in perceived risk premium as a result of a bearish
stock market environment.
Chart 5 - small cap GSS only took off 2 months after the HUI in 2001
In 2001 Golden Star Resources had a $25m market cap - not unlike many
juniors today. We highlight GSS because it had a spectacular run up in the
ensuing year [we own GSS]. However, whilst the large cap HUI index had been
rallying strongly since November 2000, GSS didn’t really got going
until late January.
The reason was because the S&P (below in green) had been falling
rapidly between November 2000 and January 2001. Once the S&P
bounced in early 2001, albeit a nascent dead cat bounce, it provided enough
impetus to send small cap miners higher for 3 months before a correction set
in.
This is not unlike the present situation:
Chart 6 - small cap miner Gold Reserve (GRZ) has failed to rally with
the HUI
Rightly or wrongly, when stocks in general are falling smaller cap
miners will garner a higher risk premium along with the rest of the market
and will underperform the HUI (red rectangle)
We believe a situation similar to 2000/2001 is unfolding today and
once the stock market bounces off its oversold levels the juniors will
catapult higher. All that’s required is patience and nerves of steel!
More commentary and stock picks follow for
subscribers…
Click here: http://blog.goldandoilstocks.com
_______________________________________________________________________
This article is intended solely for information
purposes. The opinions are those of the author
only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor
before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be
accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis
of this analysis.
Information
contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its
accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is not intended to constitute individual
investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation.
The opinions expressed herein are those of the author
and are subject to change without notice. The information herein may become
outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information. The author, 24hGold, entities in which they have an
interest, family and associates may from time to time have positions in the
securities or commodities discussed. No part of this publication can be
reproduced without the written consent of the author.
|
