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Libyan Rebels control most
of the oil coast and have moved within 30 miles of Tripoli. Oil prices have
risen along with the violence and PIMCO Co-CEO Calls Oil Spike
"Stagflationary".
The New York Times reports Qaddafi Strikes
Back as Rebels Close In on Libyan Capital
Thousands of mercenary and
irregular forces struck back at a tightening circle of rebellions around the
capital, Tripoli, on Thursday, trying to fend off an uprising against the
40-year rule of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, who blamed the violence on
“hallucinogenic” drugs and Osama bin Laden.
The fighting on Thursday centered on Zawiya, a gateway city to the capital,
just 30 miles west of Tripoli, where government opponents had briefly claimed
victory. Colonel Qaddafi’s forces — a mixture of special brigades
and African mercenaries — fought back, blasting a mosque that had been
used as a refuge by protesters, a witness told The Associated Press.
An exiled Libyan who had been in contact with members of the opposition in
Zawiya said Colonel Qaddafi’s forces attacked beginning about 5 a.m.,
initiating a battle that lasted 4 hours. The rebel forces fought back with
hunting rifles and about 100 were killed, he said.
Fighting intensified in other cities near Tripoli — Misurata, 130 miles
to the east, and Sabratha, about 50 miles west. There were also reports that
Zuara, 75 miles west of the capital, had fallen to anti-government militias.
To the east, at least half of the nation’s 1,000-mile Mediterranean
coast, up to the port of Ra’s Lanuf, appeared to have fallen to
opposition forces, a Guardian correspondent in the area reported.
Rebels Control Much of
Oil-Rich East
Bloomberg reports Qaddafi Urges End
to Violence as Foes Increase Control in East
Libya’s Muammar
Qaddafi, who has lost control of much of the country’s oil-rich east,
appealed to citizens to end violence as his forces stepped up a crackdown on
opponents and more than 100 people were reportedly shot dead.
Qaddafi blamed the uprising against his 41-year rule on “drugged
kids” and al-Qaeda, speaking by telephone on state television today for
the first time since a Feb. 22 speech in which he vowed to fight “until
his last drop of blood.” He said he regretted the deaths during the
unrest.
In the east, Qaddafi’s opponents organized committees of civilians to
run and defend their cities with the help of troops who deserted his forces.
In Benghazi, the country’s second- largest city, anti-Qaddafi militias
in front of the courthouse were collecting weapons from people who had seized
them from army supplies, a local resident said by phone, declining to be
identified due to concern over reprisals.
Anti-government protesters appeared to be in control of the entire eastern
coastline, Al Jazeera reported today, as clashes between pro- and
anti-government forces broke out in other cities, including Sabha in the
southwest, and Sabhatha and Az- Zawiyah, both west of Tripoli.
Major General Suleiman Mahmoud, commander of the Libyan army in Tobruk, told
Al Jazeera that his forces have deserted Qaddafi and are siding with local
residents. “We are supporting the Libyan people,” he said in a
phone interview with the channel. He said Tobruk was peaceful and that
residents were organizing themselves.
Civil War
“The possibility of civil war only exists if Qaddafi stays,”
Mohammed Ali Abdallah, deputy head of the National Front for the Salvation of
Libya, the main exiled opposition group, said today.
Possibility of Civil War is
100%
I wonder what definition of "civil war" the deputy head of the
National Front for the Salvation of Libya is using. That name alone implies a
civil war movement, but more importantly what else can it be called with the
military splits between pro and anti-government forces with rebels attacking
the capital?
Clinton, El-Erian, Khelil Own Words on Libya, Oil Prices
Bloomberg has an interesting video on Libya and oil prices with Secretary of State
Clinton, and PIMCO co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian.
Select El-Erian Points
From Video
·
Western
world will not grow as rapidly as before
·
Unemployment
will be a persistent issue
·
Social
safety nets will be stretched
·
On top
of that we have headwinds of higher oil prices and higher geopolitical risk
·
Commodity
prices may overshoot on stockpiling, just as happened in 2008. That is the concern of a stagflationary
headwind.
If one views inflation as a function of prices there may be merit to a
stagflation argument. If one properly views inflation in terms of money
supply and credit, the term is confusing, because it is about prices,
regardless of cause.
Please remember the origin of the term came about in the 70's when the
Keynesian theory at the time was that inflation and recession could not
happen at the same time. Obviously it did, proving Keynesian theory belongs
in the ashcan.
This is not 1970, and the ability and willingness of consumers to expand
credit at this point in time is not the same, no matter how hard Bernanke
tries.
However, we are in the midst of another oil price shock, compounded by peak
oil and a rapidly overheating Chinese economy. Thus the idea of
"headwinds" is very real, regardless of what "flation"
label one chooses to use.
Mish
GlobalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com
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Thoughts on the great
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global markets.
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