The cold war took another twist last week when a Senior German Politician Endorsed Russian Takeover of Crimea.
Former state premier Matthias Platzeck, chairman of
the German-Russian Forum business lobby and erstwhile Social Democrat (SPD)
chief, is the first high-ranking German to say the West should endorse the
annexation as a way to help resolve the Ukraine crisis.
Platzeck, 60, told the Passauer Neue Presse newspaper: "A wise man
changes his mind - a fool never will... The annexation of Crimea must be
retroactively arranged under international law so that it's acceptable for
everyone."
Platzeck, Brandenburg's popular state premier from 2002 to 2013, struck a
nerve in eastern Germany where there is far less support for sanctions
against Russia than in the West.
"We have to find a resolution so that Putin won't walk off the field as the
loser," said Platzeck, whose career was nurtured by ex-Chancellor
Gerhard Schroeder - a friend of Putin. He said areas held by separatists will
never be part of Ukraine.
Political Infighting
Platzeck's statement shocked a lot of people including German Foreign
Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier who stated Germany will Never Accept Crimea Annexation.
"We don't accept what has happened
and we don't accept Europe's borders being changed again 70 years after the
war," said Steinmeier.
Cracks Form
Der Spiegel reports Cracks Form in Berlin Over Russia Stance.
A political solution is more distant than ever in
the Russia conflict, with the German government and EU having exhausted their
diplomatic options. A rift may now be growing between Chancellor Merkel and
her foreign minister over Berlin's tough stance against Moscow.
Dead End for Merkel
Today, Reuters reports Merkel Hits Diplomatic Dead-End With Putin.
Since February, when the pro-Russian president of
Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, fled Kiev amid violent protests on the Maidan
square, Germany has taken the lead in trying to convince Putin to engage with
the West.
Merkel has spoken to him by phone three dozen times. Her Foreign Minister
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a member of the Social Democrats (SPD),
traditionally a Russia-friendly party, has invested hundreds of hours trying
to secure a negotiated solution to the conflict.
Now, German officials say, they have run out of ideas about how they might
sway the Russian leader. The channels of communication with Putin will remain
open, but Berlin is girding for a long standoff, akin to a second Cold War.
Explaining the Dead-End
Perhaps things are at a dead end precisely because of statements like "Germany will Never Accept Crimea Annexation"
by Foreign Minister Steinmeier.
Does talking make any sense if that is the position of Germany?
Putin Peels Away at Sanction Support
Matthias Platzeck, a former leader of the SPD, broke
ranks earlier this month and urged Germany to recognize Russia's annexation
of Crimea.
This week, Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukaev is being hosted by
Russia-friendly businessmen in Stuttgart, the heart of German industry.
Russia also appears to be extending a hand to right-wing opposition parties
in Europe. France's National Front confirmed at the weekend that it had
secured a 9 million euro loan from a Moscow-based bank.
The first set of EU sanctions is due to expire in March and will need to be
renewed. German officials say Italy, Hungary and Slovakia will be the most
difficult countries to keep on board.
"Putin will be trying to peel
countries away in the run-up to March," said one. Another described the
battle to keep the EU united on Russia as a "Herculean task".
Slow Squeeze
Against the backdrop of this fragile EU consensus,
ratcheting up economic sanctions further is seen as a "no go" in
Berlin for now.
That would change, German officials say, if Russian-backed separatists carved
out a corridor of control from eastern Ukraine to Crimea by taking the
strategic city of Mariupol.
For Merkel however, the showdown seems to
be evolving from a fast-moving tit-for-tat affair into a longer game in which
the West slowly squeezes Russia's struggling economy in the hope that Putin
eventually blinks.
Merkel Will Blink First
With support for sanctions eroding in several countries, with political
infighting in Germany, and with German sentiment shifting more pro-Russia,
the odds are that Merkel changes her tune first.
After all, she is the political chameleon, not Putin.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
