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More on the Birth-Death Fallacy

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Published : July 19th, 2013
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Category : GoldWire

Read the Wednesday Afternoon Wrap-Up for 7/17/2013 and the Thursday Morning Commentary for 7/18/2013

Those that have ventured into the “shadow world” of the Miles Franklin Newsletter and other alternative media, share the same fury and frustration at what global governments, – and their banking counterparts – have done to our world; let alone, that of our children and grandchildren.  I’ll never be able to change the status quo; but at least I can help to PROTECT those resistant to it.  Given it’s my job, I’m obliged to do so; but remember, it’s passion that serves as my primary motivation.

To that end, I feel like a significant portion of my life is devoted to refuting FRAUDULENT economic data; albeit, not as much as the KING of such work, John Williams of Shadow Stats.  The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and other government agencies know no bounds in the lengths they’ll go to obfuscate – or downright LIE; and nowhere more so than politically “SACROSANCT” employment data…

NEW EMPLOYMENT PARADIGM

Roughly seven or eight years ago, the BLS realized that millions of jobs were offshoring to points East – NEVER to return.  Thus, it took the same steps that previous Administrations had done to obfuscate inflation, money supply, and other crucial employment data.  In other words, it LIED about the true nature of employment.  Today’s NFP, weekly claims, and other such data have been so mangled by seasonal adjustments, definitional changes, and outright fabrications, they have decoupled entirely from Main Street REALITY.  However, no such “mistruth” compares with that of the CES Birth/Death Model; which purports to capture employment trends not reached by arbitrary NFP reporting methods.

Not to spend an entire RANT writing of what I have written of for years; but in a nutshell, the “Birth/Death” model supposedly incorporates the start-up businesses of those that lose “MAINSTREAM” jobs; thus, creating a “convenient” flow of phantom jobs whenever the labor market weakens.

The problem with such reporting, of course, is that no PROOF of such jobs exists – particularly as such data is serially restated and deleted each month.  Moreover, in weak economic environments – i.e., when people are being laid off from large corporations – the odds of successfully starting a business are “slim to none.”  Moreover, even if you survive the deadly early years, you are unlikely to earn material income for some time; you know, the stuff sustaining actual economic growth

Harvard’s Shikhar Ghosh: 75 percent of startups fail

In my quest for TRUTH, I am always on the lookout for “smoking guns” to prove my points.  And in this instance, I have found one – in the article below…

The Overworked and the Idle

…per this chart – of the utter COLLAPSE of self-employment in America, to an ALL-TIME LOW of just 7% of total NFP jobs…

24hGold - More on the Birth-De...

Thus, all I have written of the birth/death FALLACY has been PROVEN; as apparently, the odds of start-up success are falling over time.  Whether due to the weak economy, tight credit, rising inflation, suffocating regulation, or a host of other reasons, the fact remains that laid off workers are FAR MORE likely to join taxpayer-funded welfare programs than start their own business….

The 8th Largest State: Almost 11 Million People on Federal Disability

Record 23,116,441 households on food stamps

…this is why the BEST possible employment measure – the U.S. Labor Participation Rate – is at a four-decade low…

24hGold - More on the Birth-De...

Trust the government, or trust your own eyes.  It’s your choice!

 

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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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