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Most people make New Years resolutions. Not me! I go
straight to the complaint department and harp about all the perceived
injustices I see in the world. This year my list is quite long and I don't
even know where to start. On the top of my list is the complete disregard for
the U.S. Constitution and the willingness of the average American to trade
away a little bit more of his freedom everyday for the perception of more
security. And that's all it is, a perception. There are very few
people who can look at you with a straight face and tell you the world is a
safer place since September 12, 2001. Americans now live in a country where
any citizen can be detained, denied legal council, and locked away for years.
The justification is that you are a terrorist and the tool is the Patriot
Act. I have no doubt that Jefferson and Franklin
puked in their respective soups when they heard about this. Next on our list
is the Congress who was kind enough to turn a blind eye and let Bush do what
ever he wanted in Afghanistan
and then Iraq.
Speaking of Iraq,
what did you all think about the way every one handled Saddam's execution.
The question of whether anyone has the right to kill another human being
aside, I thought it was disgraceful. Then the administration has the guts to
say that it was an Iraqi issue. Assuming you have the right to kill another
human being, the process should be done with as much dignity as possible.
Little by little Americans are waking up to the
realities of a war, or multiple wars, in the Middle East.
They will eventual discover that it had nothing to do with bringing democracy
to a repressed nation, and it had nothing to do with nation building either.
It was nothing more and nothing less than an attempt to postpone the
inevitable. And what is the inevitable you might ask? Simply put, it's the
collapse of the U.S.
economy. There are two phenomenons that desperate governments always turn to
as a last resort: the printing press and war. That war can be in the form of
a civil war (think France)
or aggression against a weaker neighbor (think Nazi Germany). The current
administration saw the wheels coming off the economy in late summer 2001 and
used 9/11 to absolutely flood the U.S. with liquidity. That effect
began to wear off in 2004 so Bush went to war. Now the war is wearing off so
the next question is: where to from here? I believe the answer to that
question will be: Iran!
Then Syria, and Saudi Arabia,
and so on... If the US
were still the world's biggest creditor nation, they just might be able to
get away with it, but they're not. They're the world's biggest debtor nation
and they have to rely on the generosity of strangers to make it through the
day. The U.S. now requires US $2 billion a day just to support their house of
cards and our bankers are more than a little but nervous.
The few people in this world who know me well all
agree on one thing, I am a "viejo renegon". Roughly
translated it means I'm an old man who grumbles a lot, and it's not meant to
be a compliment. I guess I grumble because I see so many things that just
don't seem to make a lot of sense, at least to me. I hardly ever watch TV any
more. Soap operas were bad enough but now I have to put up with "Top
Model" and "Survivor". The so-called reality TV leaves a lot
to be desired as far as I am concerned. I seem to recall that the object of
television was to entertain and educate. Then we have shows where men kiss
each other on the lips, but I won't even go there. I grew up in the 1950's Midwest and all of this is a difficult transition.
People use to have values! They actually cared about things. We didn't go to
school with guns, and our parents didn't fill us with Ridlin, and some of us
actually cared about stuff. I knew people who actually looked forward to
going to work. Hell, there weren't enough hours in the day. We didn't have X-boxes
and cable TV (we had three channels) and families actually communicated with
each other. No one ended up pregnant and no one overdosed. Sounds strange
doesn't it? Some days I think I went to bed and woke up on another planet.
A lot of my charming personality has to do with
where and how I was raised. I grew up in a very small, predominantly Italian
(99.99%) town with what can best be described as old-fashioned values. My
grandfather saw to that. As was so often the case in the "old
country", the grandfather was the actual head of the family while the
father was the titular head. The old bull and the young bull type of thing.
When you wanted something, everybody went to Grandpa. The system had its
advantages in that you learned the value of a dollar and hard work. After
all, these were people tempered by two world wars and a Depression (my
grandfather was born in 1889). He came in with the horse and buggy and went
out with the atom bomb and the man-on-the-moon. I can't even imagine how that
must have felt. I did learn a lot from my grandfather. He taught me to do
what I liked regardless of how it was perceived by the rest of the world. He
also taught me to work hard, not with my back but with my mind. He wasn't
very fond of debt either. He sold a lot on credit and what's more he sold to
a lot of people no one else would sell to. As far back as I can remember
though he never borrowed a dime. I know that when he died (1974), you
couldn't find a credit card in his wallet. How un-American is that? He sold
appliances and provided financing long before GE and Ford did and he was a
very shrewd judge of human character. His bad debt never exceeded one-tenth
of one percent of his gross sales and sometimes two or three years would pass
before he had to report a default. The strange thing is that he never had a
potential client fill out a credit application, not once. Instead he just sat
down with the person, usually in their kitchen, and they'd talk. By the time
he walked out, he knew whether or not he would finance their purchase. I
often used to wonder how that type of philosophy would work in today's world.
People like my grandfather were forged with
adversity. They usually left economic despair and/or religious/political
persecution in their homeland to migrate to the U.S. and they usually arrived
with nothing but the cloths on their back and unable to read and write. These
were tough people willing to do the most menial tasks in order to accomplish
a better life. They suffered individually and collectively but they advanced.
Not all of them mind you, but enough of them to make the United States the
country it became in the 1950's. When something came along to threaten their
surroundings (think Hitler), they sent their children off to settle the
issue. My grandfather sent three boys off to war, only one came back, and he
never complained once. As an aside, I know of no one who sent their child off
to Iraq.
People from my grandfather's era had their flaws and they were far from
perfect, but they left the world a better place. Here's the rub though. In
their effort to ensure that their children and grandchildren had a better
life, they made it too easy for them. You don't miss what you never
sacrificed for.
There is an old Italian saying that when translated
goes something like this: water always seeks its own level. Well folks, water
is about to seek its own level. The twin elements of pain and suffering are
about to make a return engagement and the principal object of their attention
will be the American populace. The really bad news is that absolutely no one
is prepared and even less are expecting the second coming (the 1930 Great
Depression was the first). The few people who do position themselves for the
spectacle will have the investment opportunity of a lifetime, and assuming
they have the patience and intelligence to persevere, they'll become
exceedingly, disgustingly rich. Things will change and not just economically,
but socially and politically as well. And if we're lucky, morally. Pain and
suffering of this kind is tragic, but it is almost always cleansing. It will
produce a better society, one that in certain facets will be the
reincarnation of my grandfather. The more things change, the more they stay
the same. Bellbottoms are back after a thirty five year absence! Technology
improves but human beings stay the same. Why? The basic emotions of love,
hate, fear, and greed are the same as they were five thousand years ago and
they'll be the same five hundred years from now. In conclusion, the year 2006
had a little something for everyone. The Dow, gold, commodities, and the
bonds all offered profits at one time or another. Only the dollar bulls came
up short. The New Year, and probably 2008, is going to be a different story
altogether so prepare your self for the ride of a lifetime.
MARKET COMMENTARY
As far as I am concerned, the stock market will be
the story for 2007 and maybe even 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average has been cranking out new all-time highs almost on a weekly
basis but there are clear signs of strain and non-confirmations as far as the
eye can see. Even within the DJIA itself, there are chinks in the armor.
Let's take a look at the following Daily chart of the DJIA ($INDU):
A blind man can see the series of new all-time highs
stretching back to the mid-October breakout. Dozens of them! What you might
not notice is the breakdown in the Dow's internal components. Take a close
look at RSI, MACD, and the histograms. They have been steadily deteriorating
and have not confirmed a single new high since the last week in October, and
that includes the new intraday high posted on the 3rd of January. What is
even more ominous is the series of lower highs each one has made since
putting in their respective tops.
In case you're wondering, these internal
non-confirmations are not anomalies. Let's take a look at the following daily
chart of the cash S & P:
There are several things to take away from this
chart. The least important is the fact that RSI, MACD, and the
histograms have not confirmed any new highs in more than two months. Higher
up on my list of priorities in the fact that the S & P did not confirm
this weeks intraday high in the Dow. Instead it made a lower high! At the top
of my hit parade is the fact that the S & P has not come close to
confirming the all-time high in the Dow and this is a primary
non-confirmation. Dow theorists, and I'm one of them, tend to go gaga
when we see things like this. So there you have it, a triple header of
non-confirmations and if I can borrow a phrase from the 1930's, it's the
cat's pajamas.
Least you think that these are just one-of-a-kind
events and I'm trying to pull the wool over your eyes, I've made the
following handy-dandy little chart that compares all of what I consider to be
the major indexes:
 
This is a very interesting little chart and I've
tried to keep it as simple as possible but some explanation is required.
Since I've already discussed the DJIA and S & P above, let's use them as
examples. The Dow made a new all-time high on January 3, 2007 but RSI, MACD,
and the histograms did not confirm. Of course the Dow cannot confirm itself
so we have 'na'. The S & P posted a high on December 15, 2006 (not an
all-time high) and likewise it was not confirmed by RSI, MACD, and the
histograms. What is more ominous is that it did not confirm the Dow
high and that is a secondary non-confirmation to go along with the primary
non-confirmation I mentioned earlier. Notice as you go down through
the list that only the Banking Index had internal confirmations from the RSI,
MACD, and histograms but it too failed to confirm the Dow. Only the faithful
Consumer Index confirmed the Dow's new high. Talk about sheep!
Try not to fall asleep because this is really
important stuff. This type of internal breakdown within the major indexes
didn't even exist in early 2000 when we had our bull market high, and I don't
recall the last time there was both a primary and secondary
non-confirmation between the Dow and the S & P. Of the four major
indexes, the Dow, the S & P, the NASDAQ, and the Transports, I stopped
counting at twenty non-confirmations of varying degrees. That is amazing! And
what is even more amazing is that no one seems to notice!! The four are in
varies stages of decay with the Transports being the worst followed by the
NASDAQ, the S & P, and finally the Dow trying to hold the house of cards
together. Now I would like to bring some perspective to our discussion with a
corny analogy. Think of these four indexes as the wheels on a car. What makes
the wheels move is the engine and our engine is the American consumer. I
would like to end this discussion with a look at the daily chart of the
Consumer Index:
The Consumer Index made a new all-time high on
January 3rd thereby confirming the all-time high made in the Dow that same
day. However the internals of the consumer index (RSI, MACD, and the
histograms) all failed to confirm. Both RSI and MACD had peaked months
earlier (not shown) but still stayed considerably overbought ever since.
I know that the Transports, NASDAQ, and S & P
have all peaked weeks or even months ago depending on which one you look at,
and I also know that all three have made a lower high. I now believe the Dow
is going to do the same thing. Why? The consumer is about to roll over,
that's why! Once the consumer pulls in his horns, you can turn out the lights
because the party is over. I will use the S & P as an example as how this
will play out. Of the last three corrections in the S & P, two were 30
points and one was 21 points. Currently, we have corrected 22 points and
stand at 1409.71. If I am right, this (or the next in the worse case
scenario) correction will reach 56 points (to +/- 1375.00) before rallying to
a lower high. The strength of the rally that follows the initial move down
will tell us everything we need to know about the future of the Dow. I
suspect we'll rally back up to the 1410.00 level and then turn down
violently. Finally, there is always the possibility that we just continue
down once the 56 point correction begins and don't rally to a lower high.
Given the technical divergence that I see in the markets, this is a real
possibility and would be ominous. In any event, I think the top is in for all
the major indexes and it is time to go short the Dow and that is just what
I've done. Next month I'll let you know how it's going.
The next bone I'd like to pick is with the U.S.
dollar. In order to understand the path of the dollar, you have to
know whether we're going to experience inflation or deflation. An oversimplified
definition says inflation involves rising prices while deflation involves a
slowing economy. Then of course we have stagflation which is a
combination of the two, i.e., rising prices with a slowing economy. I believe
we are seeing the onset of stagflation now and that is going to make the
Fed's job very difficult. When it comes to the Fed though, it's best to keep
one thing in mind: they are deathly afraid of deflation. In order to combat
deflation, they'll print money until they drop. After all, it's just paper.
Flooding the market with fiat currency cheapens it and we've been seeing the
results of that policy for years now. Take a look at the following historical
chart for the US Dollar Index:
With the exception of 2005, the trend has been down
sharply for more than five years. This downward trend is the direct result of
way too many dollars (debt) together with a complete lack of fiscal
responsibility. The bad news is that the madness will only get worse. Mr.
Bush has just announced that he'll send even more troops to the Middle East and that means more debt and more dollars.
Then there is the trade deficit.
Given everything that is coming at us in the future,
there is no way this trend is going to reverse itself. The only question will
be the speed of the decline and that speed will be significantly affected by
the interest rate. Higher rates will slow the decline while lower rates will
accelerate the decline. There are also intricate relationships with external
factors such as European rates which happen to be on the rise. Yet higher
rates will kill the consumer while lower rates will postpone his misery. Do
you see the dilemma here? It gets worse! Higher rates will make it easier to
sell bonds while lower rates will make it almost impossible to sell U.S. debt.
Asian countries are already starting to make noises about diversifying out of
the dollar and the implications are disastrous. In any event I want to make
it perfectly clear that higher rates in the US will only stem the tide but it
will not change the tide.
After falling as low as 80.50 in late 2004, the
dollar began a year long counter trend move to the upside which just happened
to coincide with the rise in interest rates in the U.S. That move fizzled out
at 92.50 one year later and we've since traded as low as 81.90 on December 6,
2006. Currently we are experiencing what I consider to be a minor reaction to
the upside. The March 07 futures contract for the U.S. Dollar Index closed on
Friday at 84.40 and this is marginally above what I consider to be good
resistance at 84.34. We have excellent Fibonacci resistance at both
84.91 and 85.52 and the latter corresponds well with the 200-dma at 85.59. I
believe the dollar's reaction will fizzle out at 85.52 (and maybe even 84.91)
which happens to be the 50% retracement from the 260-day low back up to the
260-day high. This should offer an excellent shorting opportunity and
I will take advantage of it. Make no mistake about it, the dollar is not
going to start a new bull market rally and we are not going to 104.00 as some
project. The simple fact is that the dollar unwound from 87.00 to 81.90 in a very short
period of time and now we are retracing a portion of that rally. Nothing more
and nothing less!
Let's talk about commodities now
(metals not included). I have been a bull on commodities for five years, in
part because I forecast an inflationary environment way back in 2001. I have
read some very optimistic articles, written by some very intelligent
speculators, projecting a bull market in commodities well past the year 2015.
Given the current and projected devaluation of the dollar, the increased
demand flowing out of Asia, and the slow but steady growth in Europe, I can understand the optimism. Dollar
deterioration will lead to a flight to quality. Quality will be all things
tangible (versus paper like stocks). The only fly in the ointment would be
the unwelcome appearance of deflation. A deflationary event at this point in
time would be devastating for the world economy. In theory, I believe the Fed
would choose inflation, even hyperinflation, before they would accept
deflation, but sometimes you don't get to choose. The Fed continually warns
about the risks of inflation and that bothers me a lot. I don't exactly view
the Fed as a bastion of truth and when they continually run the same theme up
the same flagpole time and again, I have to wonder. In order to have
inflation, you need two things to happen:
- The central
bank (the Federal reserve in the U.S.) has to print obscene
quantities of money, and
- Somebody
has to be willing to accept that money
The
first without the second will, in my opinion, produce deflation. I believe we
will have deflation somewhere down the road but I was and continue to look
for higher inflation first. Well into the double digits at the very least and
that will be bullish for commodities.
A number of investors are becoming increasingly more bearish commodities with
each passing day and that in itself is not a bad thing. Most people have been
bearish gold from $252.00 and still can't smell the coffee. I want to take a
look at the weekly chart for the cash CRB and see if we can discern the path
over the coming months:
The very first thing to note here is that there is
absolutely nothing technically wrong with this chart. We've posted a series
of higher highs and lower lows while using the 50-wma as support. I do see
that the recent 409.65 high was not confirmed by RSI, MACD, or the histograms
so that is an indication that we could have some more downside.
For four years the CRB was driven by copper, oil,
gold, and silver. Of course there were the occasional three month wonders but
the four horsemen did the brunt of the work. Several months back there seemed
to have been a shift. Oil and copper entered a significant correction while
gold and silver have slowed a bit. In their place, the grains, cotton, and
lumber have been gathering a head of steam. While all commodities suffered
the first week of January, cotton gave up very little ground and lumber
actually advanced a bit. In particular, I have been bullish wheat, corn, and
soybeans for several months now and they have made their first leg up in what
just may be the beginning of a multi-year bull market. I took an initial
position in each two months ago and am looking to add on but want to see more
downside first. I also purchased two stocks: Cresud Common Shares (CRESY) and
Saskatchewan Wheat Pool (SWP.TO). Now I would like to close this section with
a look at the weekly chart of the Dow Jones-AIG Grains Spot Index:
The gap up at 131.00 was indicative of a break out
and was followed by a significant rally. The rally was highlighted by a
crossover whereby the 50-wma broke above the 200-wma for the first time in
two years. That was a buy signal. Now we are oversold and should see some
sort of decent correction before we begin the next stage up. Cotton and
lumber are also experiencing a similar breakout and I expect grains and the
softs will help propel the CRB to new highs this year.
Oil and copper are like the ugly sisters that can't
get a date tonight. Everybody loves to hate them and no one is willing to
step up to the plate to buy them. It reminds me of the first time gold
rallied up to $389.00 and then fell back down to $327.00. Everybody was
projecting gold back down at $252.00. It never did and we're at $610.00
today. As difficult as it may be to believe, oil and copper will follow the
same path. In particular, oil is a politically sensitive commodity and supply
just happens to be finite. One warm winter won't change that. It might
postpone the inevitable, but it won't change it. If you take a look at the
monthly chart for oil below, you'll see that we are extremely oversold. The
current decline is now approaching a critical phase as we test the last
significant low at 56.00.
I would expect us to consolidate at this level but
anything is possible. Should we fall through the support at 56.00, then we'll
probably go on down to test the 200-wma at 49.79. Corrections are always an
unpleasant but a necessary part of any bull market. Usually the best thing to
do during a correction is nothing and I believe that to be the case with oil
and copper. Unless I see real honest-to-goodness signs of deflation, I will
just sit tight.
Now we come to the bonds. Together
with the Fed, they form the Laural and Hardy of the financial world. The Fed
says up and the bonds go down, the Fed says inflation and the bonds say
deflation. It's been that way for months. My own opinion is that rates have
to go up and therefore bond prices have to go down. If the laws of supply and
demand still function, and they do, I don't see how interest rates can do
anything but rise over the long run. The Fed must sell bonds in order
to finance the government's numerous adventures, and that sale depends not
only on the buyer's perception of risk, but also on the return paid buy other
bond sellers. Europe for one is raising rates and the U.S. must
compete with them. Financially Europe is much better off than the U.S., so all things being equal, you would
think the U.S. would have
to raise rates as much if not more than Europe.
Then there is the dollar effect. How can you lower interest rates when U.S. bonds
loose value because the dollar declines in real terms over time? The answer
is that you can't. Every rule has an exception and that's why we have Caribbean
Money Centers. You see the Fed learned a trick or two from Enron. They
open a dummy account for an off-shore corporation in the Caribbean,
print dollars, deposit them into said account, and then use the money to buy
their own bonds. Since they don't have to report the M-3 anymore, no one is
the wiser. Nothing like responsible government!
The Fed has been talking up inflation for months now
and the bond prices have been declining. On the other hand, the market
continues to expect rate decreases. Just the other day PIMCO's Bill Gross
said he expected several rate cuts this year. Gross is a smart man and he
manages more money than just about anyone on earth. Maybe he's right. Maybe
the Fed will try to sing the bull to sleep with a couple of quick rate cuts,
but what about the dollar? Talk about the nail in the coffin. Will our Asian
bankers sit still and hold on to trillions of dollars of rapidly devaluating
paper just because they're nice guys? I think not! Let's take a look at the
historical chart for bonds below:
Bond rallies/declines tend to last decades and you
can see that the bonds have been in rally mode for more than twenty years. I
believe that bonds are topping now and we are about to enter into a bear
market that should last twenty years or so.
Before I end my comments on the bond, I would like
to bring up something that I haven't mentioned in months or maybe even a year
or two. Way back when I told you that once the Dow rolled over, it would
turn down along with the dollar and the bonds. The average investor
doesn't know or care that commodities exist so he'll be cut off from any
chance to make money in the markets. In our life time, we've never
experienced a period where stocks, bonds, and the dollar all declined at once
and for a prolonged period of time. Literally there will be no port in the
storm. What makes me believe that bonds are topping now? Take a look at the
weekly chart for bonds that I've posted below:
Here you can see a series of lower highs and the
50-wma crossing below the 200-wma and that is bearish. We are now in the
process of testing support at the 200-wma and we could have the makings of a
reverse head-and-shoulders formation. Bonds are over bought so if I'm right
we will continue to head down here. If Bill Gross is right we should complete
the head-and-shoulders formation, move above the last lower high of 114.30,
thereby giving credence to the neckline and initiating a good rally. I don't
see it turning out that way but sometimes life is stranger than fiction. For
me, the key number to the downside in the bonds is 111.18.
We've played around with it on several occasions, but we have yet to break
decisively below it. If we do, it will be confirmation that I am on the right
track.
Precious Metals
No real discussion can be complete without talking
about the precious metals and it's just in time because there seems to
be a lot of debate as to direction and strength. Those of us who tend to
follow gold on a regular basis quite often make the mistake of getting too
caught up in the daily intrigues and we forget that there is a big picture.
No other type of investment plays off of the human emotions like gold does.
Most assets rise on greed and fall on fear while gold is the only investment
I know of that can rise on both greed and fear; it just depends on the
moment. More than any other investment, gold can cause you to count your
chickens before they hatch and that's why it's so demoralizing when it
doesn't act the way we "think" it should. Bull markets in gold are
by far the most difficult to deal with. They just love to cross you up,
buying tops and selling bottoms. I've never been a fan of that so I decided
several years back to take an initial position, add on with any significant
correction, and try to hold on for dear life. Very easy to say but very
difficult to do! I've had a lot of less than comfortable moments, but it has
been worth it.
I would like to try and bring some perspective to
the current gold picture. We are now in January and almost all the investors
I know were counting on the seasonality of gold. By that I mean that gold has
rallied nicely from September to late January (last year it lasted until May
11th) for the last five years and investors now assume that the winter surge
is written in stone.
As you can easily see in gold's weekly chart, we've
rallied but it hasn't been the stuff dreams are made out of. To really
understand what gold is doing though, you need to go back to the May 11th
high of 730.40. Gold has since posted a series of lower highs and higher lows
while hugging the 50-wma (610.38) along the way. Additionally gold is
undergoing accumulation. Throw in the fact that most are now bearish gold and
I believe this is very bullish scenario.
Gold has done nothing wrong to date and as long as
we do not make a lower low, below 570.94, I see absolutely nothing to worry
about (and even if we did I would still sit through it). Given the amount of
fiat currency being printed by just about every major country in the world,
gold is the only real money worth having and that is why it continually
undergoes accumulation. As real incomes rise in Asia,
this accumulation will only increase. The same holds true for silver. At
times silver leads gold, especially when both are strong. This has been the
case for the last two months even though investors don't have a lot to show
for it. Silver is also more volatile than gold as we saw late in December.
Let's take a look at the weekly chart for silver:
It looks the same doesn't it? The only exception is
that silver made a higher high at 14.37 instead of a lower high like gold. It
is also currently trading above its 50-wma. Both gold and silver have key
numbers to watch and they are 610.2, 631.1, 655.0, 678.8, and 705.0 bases the
February 07 gold futures contract and 1142.6, 1211.3, 1280.5, and 1356.7
basis the March 07 silver futures contract.
Precious metals stocks are another story altogether.
If the Dow is rolling over as I believe it is, these stocks will more than
likely get caught in the downdraft and the decline could last months. There
is no real way of knowing. There is also another problem with the mining
companies that has so far gone unnoticed. Most mining is done in third and
fourth world countries where governments are notoriously unstable and
corrupt. As the price of metals rises, these governments tend to look at
these companies are their private, captive piggy banks. Need money? Squeeze
the miners! If the world's financial markets enter rough waters and capital
becomes scarce, this tendency will only increase. Companies like Newmont are
particularly susceptible to such problems as their investments are so large
and capital intensive that they make great targets. I am currently long AEM,
BVN, CDE, GG, GSC, NEM, RGLD, and SLW and I see no reason to change, yet. If
I reduce my position, it will have nothing to do with the Dow rolling over.
Rather it will be due to the perceived risk of working in less than desirable
environments. I will keep you informed.
Enrico Orlandini
Dow Theory Analysis
Ignacio Merino 636, Santa Cruz,
Miaflores, Peru
Phone: 001-51-56-973-5599 - Fax
: 001-51-19-280-8796
Email: ebo@dowtheoryanalysis.com
Website: www.dowtheoryanalysis.com
For those of you interested in receiving
information on the Funds we manage, please feel free to e-mail us at ebo@dowtheoryanalysis.com and we will respond as soon as possible.
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