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Ben S. Bernanke
(Current Federal Reserve Chairman) explains the shortfalls of clearinghouse
guarantees.
Read the passage
below as many times as you need to understand it.
(emphasis mine) [my
comment]
Clearing
and Settlement during the Crash
Ben S. Bernanke
Princeton University
This article is a reexamination of the clearing and settlement process in
financial markets (particularly the futures market) and its performance during
the 1987 stock market crash. …
…
In practice, the most important device for ensuring performance on
trades is the collection of margin. While in stock markets margin is
effectively a “down payment” on the purchase of securities (with
the rest of the purchase being financed by credit from the broker), in
futures (and options) markets the margin is more correctly thought of
as a “performance bond.” The purpose of the bond
is to ensure that the trader will be able to cover his position in the event
of a large price move (but not, obviously, for any possible price move).
…
Margin collection is actually administered in a pyramid structure. [A useful
illustrative example is given in Edwards (1984, pp. 227ff).] Futures
commission merchants collect margin from their own customers. Nonclearing
member FCMs in turn have to post margin with a clearing member. This
collection of margin from nonmember FCMs is on a gross basis; that
is, the amount collected depends on the total number of contracts traded by
the nonmember FCM and its customers, not on the nonmember FCM’s net
exposure. Effectively, then, all margins collected by nonmember FCMs
are passed through to and held by clearing member firms.
The clearing members in turn post margin with the clearinghouse. This
is usually on a net basis, that is, the margin depends on the open
position of the member FCM; a member firm whose customers held an equal
number of long and short contracts would post no margin with the
clearinghouse, but would retain its customers’ margins in its own
account. The clearinghouse itself always has a zero net position,
since the net long positions of some clearing members will cancel out the net
short positions of others.
…
As long as daily losses per contract resulting from price changes are
smaller than posted margin, the performance of contracts is automatically
assured. The clearinghouse only has to transfer funds from winners to losers,
incurring no exposure itself. However, if losses are so large that
margins are not sufficient, and if losing traders decide or are
forced to default, then there is a danger that the clearinghouse may
have to make good nonperforming contracts.
[Key Point] An interesting question is how far the
clearinghouse’s guarantee of performance extends. Under a net
margin system, the clearinghouse collects margins from members only on their
net exposure (their net long or net short position with the clearinghouse).
This suggests that the clearinghouse’s goal is not to guarantee
all futures contracts, but only to protect clearing members from the
default of other members. [Key Point]
To illustrate this distinction by an example, consider a clearing
member FCM with a balanced portfolio of longs and shorts: This member
has no open position and thus would post no margin with the
clearinghouse. It is nevertheless possible that a large price move
could cause some of the clearing member’s customers to default,
threatening the solvency of the firm. If the FCM failed, would the
clearinghouse guarantee performance of the contracts of the defaulted
member’s customers? [No] Edwards (1984, pp. 231-232) claims
that the answer is no; he goes on to suggest that this may be
the most efficient arrangement, since it gives customers and FCMs some
incentive to monitor each other’s financial condition. Other sources
are more ambiguous about whether the clearinghouse would assume any
responsibility in this case; for example, the Brady Report (1988, pp. VI-28)
points out that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange maintains a trust fund that
could be used on a discretionary basis to help customers of a failing FCM.
Evidently, though, not only the solvency of the clearinghouse but
also the solvency of the member FCMs is a necessary condition for the
integrity of all futures contracts.
My reaction: Read the passage
above as many times as you need to understand it.
1) The most important device for ensuring performance on trades is the
collection of margin. In futures (and options) markets the margin is more
correctly thought of as a "performance bond."
2) The clearing members post margin with the clearinghouse on a net basis. A
member firm whose customers held an equal number of long and short contracts
would post no margin with the clearinghouse, but would retain its customers'
margins in its own account.
3) The clearinghouse's goal is not to guarantee all futures
contracts, but only to protect clearing members from the default of
other members, which is why margins are collected from members only on their
net exposure.
4) Consider a clearing member FCM with a balanced portfolio of longs and
shorts: This member has no open position and thus would post no margin with
the clearinghouse.
5) A large price move could cause some of the clearing member's customers
to default, threatening the solvency of the firm. If the FCM failed, would
the clearinghouse guarantee performance of the contracts of the defaulted
member's customers? The answer is no.
6) The integrity of all futures contracts depends not only the solvency of
the clearinghouse but also the solvency of the member FCMs.
KEY POINT
I am repeating this because it is so important: The integrity of all
futures contracts depends not only the solvency of the clearinghouse but also
the solvency of the member FCMs. If you trade futures/options through an
insolvent broker-dealer (nearly all of them are insolvent at this point), you
are exposing yourself to massive counterparty risks.
Unhealthy Impact of Net Settlement
Net Settlement helps weak or insolvent firms survive. In fact, preventing
settlement failures (ie: the collapse of these insolvent institutions) has
been the driving force behind the move towards net settlement.
1) Clearinghouse guarantee allowed insolvent broker-dealers to continue
operating.
Normally weak or insolvent financial institutions become insolated as
counterparties refuse to do business, causing them to fail. This is healthy.
However, Net Settlement eliminates the need for firms to assess the credit of
each of their counterparties through its clearinghouse guarantee.
2) “looting” customer brokerage accounts
Net Settlement allows and encourages broker dealers (especially insolvent
broker dealers) to loot their customers' brokerage accounts take the opposite
side of trades. Take an insolvent firm (Lehman, Bear Stearns, etc) which
is critically short of cash and is finding it impossible to obtain unsecured
financing. For this firm desperate firm, there is an easy (and incredibly
reckless) solution: trade on its own accounts to zero out all its net
derivative positions. For example, if its customers are net long gold
futures, the the firm can take a short position in gold futures matching the
size of the long position. Since the clearinghouse now sees an equal number
of long and short contracts, margin backing gold futures will be returned.
Results of netting in futures (and options) markets
The chart below shows amounts receivables from customers (Margin Debt) and
payables to customers (free balances, derivative margin, etc). The difference
between the two is provides a good estimate of how much derivative margin
(futures, options, etc…) has been borrowed by broker-dealers.
Net Settlement in equity settlement
The Sanity Check reports that Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) in
equities.
Continuous
Net Settlement (CNS) and Illusory FTD Reporting
Written by: bobo
8/28/2006 3:23 AM
The Continuous Net Settlement System (CNS). A system
implemented by Wall Street to speed transaction processing, which nets sales
against purchases, and against the accounts of DTCC participants.
What does it have to do with the magnitude of the Fail To Deliver (FTD)
problem?
Turns out, a lot.
Because of the netting, many delivery failures never show up as such at the
DTCC, and consequently are never reported. The DTCC literally doesn't know
they exist. How can that be?
Here's an example created for me by Dr. Susanne Trimbath, PhD, an authority
on the clearing and settlement system:
Here’s
what happens if you settle trade for trade
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Sell
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“Deliver”
at customer account level (some level below your DTCC account)
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100
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0
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200
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200
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500
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500
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-800
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+700
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i.e., you are
short 100 shares at this level, with 200 shares failed to be delivered and
received
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|
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Now look what
happens at the end of the same day after NSCC Account nets to the -800
shares position:
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Seller’s DTCC Free Account
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9,000
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NSCC settlement
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-800
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Balance after settlement
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8,200
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There are no
failures to deliver at NSCC that day because there were sufficient shares
in the sellers free account to cover their bill
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Ta-dah! Netting
hides the failure to deliver
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In other words, Prime Broker A could have, say, 1 million long shares of NFI
in their account, and during the course of the day, several of their big
hedge fund customers could fail 400,000 shares, and those would never show up
as FTDs because the CNS system would net the fails against their
securities in their account, essentially netting the fails against
shares in their DTC account. [another way to think of this is that failures
to deliver create automatic short positions for the broker dealers]
Here's how it was further clarified for me by Dr. Trimbath:
"For your question, you need to follow through to the
DTC account, where shares are taken automatically for CNS settlement by NSCC. Here,
we’re talking about a hedge fund that failed to deliver to Prime Broker
A, a specific trade that failed delivery. However, because the
“free” shares are taken from Prime Broker A’s account there
is no reported failure to deliver at NSCC.
If,
for example, the failure is in IBM, and Prime Broker A has a ton of shares
hanging around the house account, then those get swept up for delivery and
there is no failure in CNS. There is a
failure in the system somewhere, but the DTCC never sees it. Prime Broker A
should be tracking it, we hope, to be sure they get the shares... But
there are no SEC rules about Prime Broker A reporting that. (From what
I’ve seen in NYSE audits, the Prime Broker A's of the world
aren’t keeping very good records on this sort of thing, frankly).
Now
what if those are NFI, and Prime Broker A doesn’t have a ton of shares
hanging around the house account? Now, there’s nothing to get swept out
for settlement and you get a reported FTD from NSCC. This
helps explain why smaller companies show up on threshold lists more often, despite
the fact that over-voting of shares occurs in HP/Compaq, for example."
OK, so I get it. CNS nets against the NSCC accounts of the
participants, and the only FTDs that are reported are trades over and
above whatever each participant has on account, after all trades for the day
are netted against each other.
So realistically, delivery failures hidden by the CNS system could be much larger
than what shows up as FTDs at the DTCC, given that 90+% of all trades are
netted. Literally, most of the issued shares of a company on account at the
DTCC via brokers could be used up in netting BEFORE the first FTD showed up
as we think of them, or as they would show up on a FOIA request.
Now think about that for a second.
We know that EVERY company has an over-voting problem. So by
definition, more votes are being cast than shares exist. Margin lending,
without distinguishing lent security entitlements, accounts for some of that
- the brokers just allow the lent share investor, who has no right to vote as
his shares were lent out - to vote anyway.
My reaction: Once
again, the NSCC’s Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) is designed to
protect clearing members from the default of other members, not retail
investors.
NSCC’s CNS essentially nets the failure to delivers against shares in
their DTC account, in effect automatically creating short positions for the
broker dealers. The ease with which the NSCC allows broker-dealers to short
sell customer securities is seductive and its effects visible.
Visible impact of NSCC netting
Wapedia reports that the National Securities Clearing
Corporation was established in 1976.
•
National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC) - The original
clearing corporation, it provides clearing and serves as the central
counterparty for trades in the US securities markets.
Established in 1976, it provides clearing, settlement, risk
management, central counterparty services, and a guarantee of completion for
certain transactions for virtually all broker-to-broker trades involving
equities, corporate and municipal debt, American depositary receipts, exchange-traded
funds, and unit investment trusts. NSCC also nets trades and
payments among its participants, reducing the value of securities and
payments that need to be exchanged by an average of 98% each day. NSCC
generally clears and settles trades on a "T+3" basis. NSCC has
roughly 4,000 participants, and is regulated by the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC).
Now have a look
at what happened to broker-dealer short positions after NSCC started netting
equity trades in 1976.
In 1970, broker-dealer short positions in securities and commodities totaled
707 million. In 2004, these broker-dealer short positions grew to 558
billion. That is a 78,956% increase.
Net Settlement Abuses Have Turned US financial System into a Ponzi
scheme
Net Settlement is only part of what has given the US financial system the
structure of a Ponzi scheme. Another big part is the Federal Reserve's
daylight overdrafts and the repo market, which I will write about in another
entry.
Edward J. Kane on Google Books explains the Ponzi scheme.
The
name Ponzi commemorates the brainstorm and abbreviated financial career of an
infamous conman, Charles Ponzi, who operated in Boston around 1920. In a
Ponzi scheme, a fund-raising enterprise operates with little or none of
the earning assets that a sound enterprise requires to generate a
projected stream of cash flows with which to service lenders and investors.
Instead, the enterprise relies on expanding its liabilities faster than
its interest and dividend payments expand. The enterprise pays
interest or dividends each period to its old clients—not from earnings
but from funds that are provided by new lenders and investors. As long as new
funds can be attracted into the scheme fast enough, the enterprise’s
managers can meet corporate obligations as they come due and pay
themselves handsomely at the same time. This can only be done, of
course by making seductive promises of high returns and making the
scheme’s subscribers believe these promises to be reasonable.
The flaw in any Ponzi scheme is that in the end the promises being made have
no collective chance of being kept. Until a day of reckoning dawns,
however, the sponsors’ false promises are mistaken for truth and
participants in the scheme appear to prosper. The apparent prosperity of the
enterprise tends to disarm critics of the scheme by giving them the
appearance of individuals who lack imagination or vision.
A Ponzi scheme is a classic case of value created in the marketplace by
asymmetries in the distribution of information. The scheme’s sponsors
know that they are running a con game, but subscribers do not. Keeping
subscribers and potential critics from learning or guessing this hidden
information becomes increasingly difficult the longer the scheme goes on.
Once economically unsound elements in the scheme begin to surface—as
inevitably they must—public confidence and the value of
subscribers’ claims to future cash flows can collapse rapidly.
Eric de Carbonnel
Market Skeptics
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