Not there yet, but control can (and will) be lost any day

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Published : September 06th, 2011
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Category : Opinions and Analysis

 

 

 

 

As you can all see, the Cartel/PPT/ESF, and who knows how many other “official” and “secretive” manipulative groups, are still running wild propping up the Dow and Treasury Bonds while doing everything in their power to attack gold and silver. This is what happens when times turn DESPERATE, to the point that what they are doing has become so BLATANT, and so IN YOUR FACE, that even a reasonably intelligent child would no doubt ask questions.


When discussing how the Cartel is losing the Precious Metals WAR, I constantly cite the difference between PAPER prices quoted on the COMEX and the REAL price one must pay for ACTUAL, PHYSICAL metal (currently about 8% above the paper price for gold, and 13% for silver, including all applicable, and often HIDDEN, fees). As for the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, which I rarely discuss given how little correlation it has to ACTUAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, I have a perfect corollary to describe how far manipulation has pushed it into the world of fantasy.


Few people, even in the mainstream world, would dispute my assertion that the collapsing U.S. economy is one of the main drivers of the GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS. Many (including myself) would go so far to cite it as the LEADING CAUSE of the calamity we are witnessing today, and still more would rank the U.S. economy’s short AND long-term prospects as among the worst in the ENTIRE WORLD.


Yet, somehow the Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to massively outperform ALL stock markets on Earth, nearly ALL the time. Watching the Dow nearly go POSITIVE this afternoon with ALL European stock markets, and many Asian bourses, down 5%-6% since Monday morning, even my PPT-jaded jaw is dropping. When one realizes how disparate the Dow has been driven from reality, it becomes impossible to avoid concluding the U.S. government is operating the PPT at hyperbolic levels not dreamt of even a few years back. Just take a look at the table below to show how out of whack the Dow’s performance has become, when compared to ALL the world’s major stock indices (the last column lists YTD performance).


In my view, this level of outperformance can ONLY be explained by the same U.S. government propping mechanisms that infiltrates essentially ALL financial markets, as well as ALL publicly reported economic data. There is no conceivable reason on the planet why the Dow should be flirting with BREAKEVEN for the year while its economy, currency, and political system is IMPLODING, while its debt, deficits, and military spending is EXPLODING!






The same goes for U.S. Treasury Bonds, clearly the linchpin of the ENTIRE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM. The largest recycling bin for ill-gotten “dollar reserves,” and the most important mechanism for CONTROLLING Investment, Commercial, and Central Banks, U.S. TREASURY BONDS are THE MOST manipulated market on Earth. Remember, the OVERT QE1 and QE2 programs focused on BUYING U.S. TREASURIES with PRINTED MONEY, not to mention the QE2-lite which goes on today as proceeds from maturing Treasuries are re-invested by the Fed. We all know COVERT QE3 is going on behind the scenes (not just in Treasuries, but in Mortgages and other credit markets as well), and of course OVERT QE3 will be announced September 21st after the next Fed meeting, unless the markets crash first and force this decision beforehand.


Treasury Bonds represent the single largest bubble in U.S. history, in my view. Some call the dollar itself the largest bubble, but essentially they are one and the same because Treasury Bonds are the largest, most liquid dollar-based asset class. With the economic collapse accelerating, and the Real Estate bubble FAR from bottoming (I’d guess 5-10 years away), interest rates MUST be kept unnaturally low, irrespective of the havoc such manipulation reeks on savers and the dollar’s purchasing power. Moreover, aside from official intervention bond market intervention, and “sympathy traders” who trade “with the Fed”, there clearly are thousands of “investors”, from individuals to hedge funds to corporations, that actually believe U.S. Treasury Bonds are still “safe havens.” Thus, when I see Treasury bonds inexorably rise with the collapse of Western (and many Eastern) stock markets and economies, I truly believe a material percentage of the buying emanates from misguided souls who should NEVER be allowed to manage money.


And the same goes for the dollar, which albeit at a more muted rate than in 2008-09, has recently been rising in unison with the worldwide stock market decline. In the case of “the dollar”, however, this rise is skewed by the 59% weight of the Euro in the “dollar index”, which itself is collapsing for very good reason (I believe it will be disbanded within a year).


The key point of this RANT is as follows:


Although global markets are in a state of disarray, the U.S.-led “MARKET CARTEL” has still maintained CONTROL, preventing the Dow from PLUMMETING below 10,000, gold from EXPLODING through $2,000, the dollar from having any single-day DRAMATIC DECLINES, and of course not letting the U.S. TREASURY BOND MARKET even PAUSE in its meteoric “safe haven” rise.


But don’t worry, anxious readers, no matter how hard they fight the primary trends (particularly in GOLD and SILVER), they will NOT be able to continue to CONTROL the pace of Western World collapse. A day will come soon when they CANNOT attack gold at will (as they have done for the past 12 hours), prop up the Dow at -1.5% when Europe is down 5%, or prevent “bond vigilantes” from racing for the door. I believe GOLD and SILVER will be the straws that break the camel’s back, as those markets are tiny to start with, and so much more leveraged to PHYSICAL market demand (versus COMEX PAPER prices) than EVER. But perhaps it will be something else that does them in, something out of left field, for example.


As for tomorrow (Wednesday), I do not expect the German courts to vote NO on the Euro bailouts, as it is hard to fathom that such a long-term government effort to control the economy will die at their own hand. But then again, I am not German so I cannot handicap what is going on within that proud nation’s political and economic circles, and BTW, if they do vote NO the whole game ends tomorrow.


However, I do expect the European contagion to worsen in the weeks leading up to the September 21st Fed decision (re: QE3), as well as the September 29th German parliamentary decision (re: the EFSF), and if you think another five Warren Buffett’s will ride in on white horses to save Bank of America in that time, I’ve got a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Thus, the pressure for a CONTROL-ENDING decision will only intensify as we move through September, and per the title of this RANT, CONTROL can conceivably be lost ANY DAY.


And when it DOES, I HOPE and PRAY you will have already PROTECTED YOURSELF!


A


P.S. Gotta go, just as the Dow was about to plunge into the close, it MIRACULOUSLY jumped from -190 to -140 in MINUTES while GLD, which was about to go positive for the day, MIRACULOUSLY dropped from -$1.00 to $6.00 in that same period of MINUTES!


 

 

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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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