Ostrich investors
are a major driving force in today's financial markets. As the name implies,
they are hiding their heads in the sand like the popular literary perception
of the king of birds. Burned in 2008's epic stock-market panic, they have
shunned active investing ever since. Trillions of dollars of their
capital languishes idle on the sidelines, earning zero in money markets or
near-record-low yields in Treasuries.
I can certainly
sympathize with them. In the heart of that brutal once-in-a-century stock
panic in October 2008, the flagship S&P 500 stock index plummeted 30% in
a single month! Elite blue-chip stocks long considered safe failed to
weather that fear storm well. Because the economy has been slow ever since
the panic, countless investors fear another extreme selling event. They still
want nothing to do with stocks.
The reasons for
investor anxiety today are legion. Investors fear a new recession, the
ever-popular double-dip scenario of heading back into economic contraction.
They worry about the sorry state of the jobs market, consumers' ability to
spend, and the shaky housing market. They fret about the incessant and
stifling growth of big government in Washington, and the Democrats' threats
of record tax hikes.
It's not a pretty
environment out there, so it isn't illogical to hide heads in the
low-yielding sands of cash and bonds. Unfortunately for ostrich investors
though, this strategy is doomed to failure. While it is challenging
psychologically, the active investors braving these stock markets are
thriving. Our wealth is multiplying while ostrich investors' is stagnating.
Those hiding out too long will never catch up.
I wrote my original ostrich-investors
essay 16 months ago, fresh out of the despair lows in early 2009. At the
time countless worries plagued the markets. Economists were convinced we were
heading not into a recession, but a depression. The newly-elected
Democrats promised smothering tax increases on investors. And the S&P 500
(SPX) had averaged just 808 since the despair low 6 weeks earlier.
If there was ever an
environment that encouraged ostriching, early 2009
was it. If you had moved your capital to cash then, you'd essentially have
the same amount today. But boy the opportunity cost of hiding on the
sidelines has been staggering. Between March 2009 and April 2010, the SPX
blasted 80% higher in a massive post-panic recovery. Believing the pervasive
gloom and doom back then nearly cost you a doubling of your capital!
Although the stock
markets have been volatile and stressful, the opportunities have been great.
In 2009 the SPX rallied 23.5%. Yet in our popular Zeal Intelligence monthly
newsletter, the average annualized gain on all the stock trades we realized
last year ran 45.0%. In our weekly Zeal Speculator, where we trade more often
and take more risks, our average stock trade in 2009 enjoyed an 88.9%
annualized gain.
As of the middle of
2010, the SPX was down 7.6% year-to-date. Yet our average Zeal
Intelligence stock trade closed this year had seen a 73.7% annualized gain
(64.8% absolute)! Of course these averages include all our losing trades too, full performance data is always posted on our
website. Despite all the fears and anxiety floating around, there is
lots of money to be made in these markets. Active investors have a good shot
at winning some, but ostrich investors are guaranteed to make nothing.
As investors we
carry a huge burden, we are the financial stewards of our families' futures.
If we make wise decisions, our capital will grow and our families' lives will
improve. Similarly, poor decisions today will greatly reduce our future
wealth. No one cares more about your financial future than you do, your
active stewardship is crucial. Hiding out on the sidelines is an abdication
of this stewardship responsibility, a flat-out failure. Tough markets require
different strategies, not capitulating and cowering.
Provocatively, even
the Bible speaks out on this principle of stewardship versus ostriching. Jesus Christ's famous Parable of the Talents
is chronicled in Matthew 25 and Luke 19. A nobleman who would be traveling
long and far entrusted his servants with portions of his capital. The good
servants went out and invested it, growing it for their master's return. He
praised and rewarded them. But one servant was afraid, so instead of
investing the capital he was given he hid it. He was a first-century ostrich
investor!
Far from being
commended for returning the cash unharmed, this ostriching
servant was called "wicked and lazy" when the master returned. He
was effectively fired, with his capital given to a good servant who had
wisely invested and multiplied his own capital allocation. While this parable
teaches deep spiritual truths to Christians, its literal surface application
on the financial front is no less valid. As investors our responsibility, our
moral duty, is to multiply our capital, not hide it away.
These post-panic
markets are certainly far-more challenging than the pre-panic ones, but that
just means we have to step up our stewardship efforts. Investors can't just
buy anything and hope a rising tide lifts all boats. They can't just buy
anytime and hope their stocks will eventually rise. They have to study
the markets, learning about their cycles and finding stocks that will
thrive in this environment.
If you've been ostriching since the panic, you can't change the past.
Though you could have nearly doubled your wealth since through active
investing, there is no sense beating yourself up about it. But you can change
the future. Your decisions you make today will determine how much capital you
have in the coming years. If you hide in cash, what you have today (minus
inflation) is the best you can hope for. If you get back in the game though,
fighting your anxiety, you could achieve a much better financial future for
your family.
The opportunities
are truly vast right now in the stock markets, despite their big gains
already booked since the panic lows. In nearly 100 weekly essays
written since that panic, by business partner Scott Wright and I have detailed
many awesome opportunities. Most of the key post-panic trends that have
rewarded us and our subscribers with such massive realized gains in the past
couple years are still ongoing.
To understand why,
you have to consider cycles and sentiment. Stock markets move in great
34-year cycles I call Long Valuation Waves. The first half is a 17-year secular
bull, like we saw from 1982 to 2000. The second half is a 17-year secular
bear, like we've been experiencing since 2000. Within these sideways-grinding
secular bears, smaller multi-year cyclical bulls and bears oscillate.
Check out my essay delving into these critical cycles. We are
in one such mid-secular-bear cyclical bull today.
Cyclical bulls
within secular bears average 3 years in duration, but can be as short as 2 or
as long as 5. Yet our current one was only 13 months old in late April
when the stock markets peaked before their recent correction. This bull was
far too young to give up its ghost then, which strongly suggests it is very
much alive and well today. I recently wrote another
essay explaining all this in depth.
In addition, secular
bears have giant horizontal trading ranges. In SPX terms our current one runs
from roughly 750 on the low side to 1500 on the high side. We hit this upper
resistance in late 2007 at the top of the last cyclical bull, and lower
support in late 2008 at the height of the panic. Today the stock markets
remain low within this secular-bear trading range.
The upshot of our
position today in these critical cycles that all investors should study is
that probabilities strongly favor the stock markets rallying from here.
These bull-bear cycles are strong and nearly ironclad, nothing stops their
ultimate progression. All the news you hear every day, all the anxiety and
worry, is nothing but ephemeral noise. The markets are always fretting about
something, but it is soon forgotten (remember European sovereign debt, the
oil spill?).
With our position in
the bull-bear cycles firmly on investors' side today, ostriching
now is as irrational as it was in early 2009. Sure, you can bury your talents
in cash over the next year and dig them up with just minor real losses after
inflation. But that is not investing, it is just poor stewardship. If you
take a little time to learn about the markets and seize the opportunities,
you could really grow your capital in the coming year.
In addition to the
cycles, all this rampant fear and anxiety itself is extremely bullish.
Sentiment is all-important in the financial markets, driving most short-term
price action. Sentiment is like a giant pendulum, perpetually swinging back
and forth between greed and fear. When stock prices have long been rallying
to highs, greed reigns supreme. When they have been falling to lows, fear
dominates. But like a pendulum, once either extreme is reached you can be
sure the next extreme will be the opposite one.
There is no doubt
that this summer has been dominated by the fear side of the sentiment
continuum. The stock markets have been weak thanks to the major SPX
correction in May and June. Investors are scared of countless threats,
worried that something even worse is coming. As is always the case when stock
markets are weak, bearish and pessimistic theories dominate newsflow and consciousness. When prices are down,
investors want to be scared and look for reasons to rationalize their
emotions.
Yet it is fear
episodes that birth all great rallies. Eventually fear and anxiety drive
everyone interested in selling anytime soon into pulling the ripcord and
bailing out. And once this selling-exhaustion threshold is hit, there are no
more sellers left. Then no matter how bad the news is,
the markets start rallying anyway because only buyers remain. And after this
new rallying is established for a few weeks, newsflow
turns positive as investors start feeling greedy and look for justifications
to buy.
The great sentiment
pendulum endlessly swings from greed to fear and back again. And since it
spent most of the past few months deep into fear territory, the only place it
can go from here is back towards greed. The only thing that can drive
widespread greed is a big rally. Thus in pure sentiment terms, the
stock markets are perfectly set up to enjoy a major rally in the coming
months. The markets abhor extremes, and fear has ruled for too long. Greed is
overdue to make an appearance.
If you study the
markets, you have no choice but to acknowledge the bull-bear cycles and the
greed-fear swings in sentiment. Many ostrich investors I've talked with over
the past year have some level of awareness of cycles and sentiment. But they
still argue that hiding in the sand is rational, because they fear another
stock-market panic or crash. Together crashes and panics are extreme selling
events.
From the
widely-hailed Hindenburg Omen in the news lately, to all kinds of more
obscure theories, perma-bears offer dozens of reasons
why we face a crash or panic this autumn. Never mind that these perma-bears always think a new crash or panic is
imminent! If you follow one of these guys, read what he was predicting back
in early 2009. It will be a crash or panic, not the massive rally I predicted
then. Gloom and doomers are broken records,
they perpetually forecast calamity and lead investors astray.
An extreme selling
event in the coming months is terribly unlikely, its probability approaching zero.
Ostrich investors need to understand this, as constantly expecting an event
with exceedingly-low odds of occurring is no excuse for burying their capital
in the sand. There are a couple key reasons why we won't see a crash or panic
this autumn. Today's bull-bear cycles are in the wrong place to spawn them
and the last extreme selling event happened too recently.
Crashes, a 20%+
plunge in the stock markets in a matter of days, only occur at one
very specific time in cycles. Crashes always erupt near multi-year highs
deep in secular bulls, like in 1929 and 1987. Crashes are born in extreme
greed when retail investors are fully deployed and almost no one is hiding in
cash on the sidelines. Obviously today with widespread fear and ostrich
investors hiding trillions in cash, this environment is all wrong for a
crash. And the April SPX high of 1217 was far below the October 2007
high of 1565 at the end of the last cyclical bull. A crash ain't gonna happen folks.
Panics, a 20%+
plunge in the stock markets in a matter of weeks, also only occur at
one very specific time in cycles. Unlike crashes starting from multi-year
highs, panics cascade out of lows in cyclical bear markets. A bear
persists for a year or so, mauling about 25% out of the stock markets. Then
some high-profile catalyst ignites a frantic rush for the exits, and the
resulting intense selling drives another 20%+ loss in a matter of weeks. Like
crashes, panics require heavily-deployed retail investors. People have to be
in before they can panic!
We aren't at the end
of a multi-year bull near multi-year highs, so no crash is coming. We aren't
a year into a cyclical bear near lows, so no panic is coming. And extreme
selling events can't happen in an environment like today's plagued by ostrich
investors, when trillions of dollars are already hiding outside of the stock
markets. Extreme-selling-event-magnitude declines require fully-deployed
investors. Even Wall Street often acknowledges how chronically underinvested
people are today.
Proximity to the
2008 panic is another strong argument against another extreme selling event
anytime soon. Extreme selling events are so scary that everyone without
nerves of steel is driven to sell. Some of these investors are so discouraged
they never come back, and others gradually tiptoe back in over years. So
throughout market history, you always see at least a decade between
extreme selling events. It takes that long after one for enough investors to
quit worrying and get fully deployed again.
So ostrich investors
can't latch on to some perma-bear's flawed
extreme-selling-event thesis and use that as an excuse for abdicating their
family's financial stewardship. Probabilities are virtually zero of seeing
another panic or a crash anytime in the coming years. And without
extreme-selling-event worries, the bull-bear cycles and sentiment pendulum
become even more compelling. They are very bullish today.
Ostrich investors
also bring up the horrible state of Washington as an excuse. They
understandably worry about our out-of-control government's epic debt binge.
And the way the Marxists (Democrats using class-warfare rhetoric) want to
raise job-killing taxes on hard-working American businessmen. And the
terrible encroachment by the federal government into all aspects of our lives
through insane overregulation.
There is no doubt at
all that the Democrats' terrible anti-prosperity philosophy, monstrous
overregulation bills, and endless threats of higher taxes have strangled this
post-panic recovery. But this isn't the first time we've had an abominable
government in America. Remember Jimmy Carter? The beauty of the United States
is we can vote out these thieving socialists. We've done it before and we'll
do it again in November and 2012. Don't extrapolate out our current bad
government into infinity. This too will pass.
Realize that
oversold or undervalued stock markets can rally strongly even when we are
saddled with a terrible government for a season. Remember that back in early
2009 we had the misfortune of the same openly-Marxist Obama
Administration and prosperity-hating Democratic Congress we do today. Yet
despite all the despicable things Washington has done to us taxpayers since
then, the SPX is still up 80% at best since its lows!
Ostrich investors
have really lost out since the panic, giving up nearly a doubling in their
wealth. But they don't need to bear such crushing opportunity costs forever.
If you have been hiding out in zero-yielding cash or low-yielding bonds, get
back in the game! Start redeploying a small fraction of your capital in
stocks. As you get more comfortable and enjoy gains, gradually move more of
your capital back into stocks. Eventually you'll be out of ostrichdom and back into wise financial stewardship of
your family's future.
We can help you. At
Zeal we study the markets constantly, always looking for
high-probability-for-success trading opportunities. We specialize in
commodities stocks, the great secular bull market of the past decade. We
publish acclaimed monthly and weekly
newsletters analyzing the markets, explaining what is going on and why, and
detailing which stocks we are buying and selling (and when) to ride these trends.
Our subscribers have been richly rewarded by our trades even in these tough
times. Join
us!
The bottom line is
there is no excuse to be an ostrich investor. Hiding your capital in the
zero-yielding cash sands is a failure, a millennia-old abdication of
stewardship responsibility. Tough markets are not as easy to grow your wealth
in as normal markets, but with a little time and effort you can still thrive
as an investor. Get your anxiety and fear in check, buckle down, and start
investing to win again.
The markets are
actually very bullish right now, with almost no chance of an extreme selling
event like the perma-bears perpetually prophesy.
Stocks are in a great place in their bull-bear cycles to rally strongly in
the coming months. And the very poor sentiment we've weathered this summer
ensures the next sentiment swing will be towards greed. The only thing that
can generate it is a major stock-market rally.
Adam Hamilton, CPA
Zealllc.com
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Thoughts, comments, or flames? Fire away at zelotes@zealllc.com. Due to my staggering and perpetually increasing e-mail load, I
regret that I am not able to respond to comments personally. I will
read all messages though and really appreciate your feedback!
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