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Patent Shift Uncovers Second Opportunity

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Published : January 10th, 2013
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The world is at a tipping point – and unstoppable forces are changing the face of investing.

The markets look very different than they did 50 years ago. Heck, even 10 years ago! Do you know where Apple (AAPL:NASDAQ) was trading on Jan. 2, 2003? Try $14.80... It opened today at $528.50. That's more than 347% growth a year for the past 10 years.

And over the next 10 years, we are going to see even more changes.

Whether you're retiring next year, or 20 years from now, everyone wants the same thing: secure, sustainable wealth. We want consistent gains over a long period of time, without a lot of risk.

That's not too much to ask for, right?

We want to build legacy wealth, generational prosperity and financial security... I think one of the best ways to achieve that is with steady, consistent gains from long-term, macro shifts in our global economic environment.

I'm talking about shifts where money flows out of wealthy nations and into emerging markets, industry shifts where a new technology is taking over old processes, consumer shifts where an economy becomes a domestic consumer instead of an exporter, supply and demand shifts where a formerly abundant commodity is seeing strong demand and weak supply, and demographic shifts where growing middle classes with disposable income are seeing huge numbers of new members.

These shifts are game-changers, and they can last for decades... That's a big factor for sustainable wealth.

We're in the middle of a big shift right now.

Over the past two years, patents on 10 of the best-selling brand name drugs have expired. That represents tens of billions of dollars in revenue for companies like AstraZeneca, Merck and Pfizer. But the next five years will see the patent expiration for drugs that currently bring in about $255 billion each year in global sales.

This is a big shift in power from brand-name drug manufacturers to generic drugmakers. One of my favorite companies in this arena is Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (WPI:NYSE). This has been a darling of a stock for us in 2012.

This company has become the third-largest generic drugmaker in the world through a massive acquisition. It's perfect timing, as big-name patents are expiring in the branded drug industry.

Indeed, WPI is very well positioned to take advantage of this shift. The company has thousands of generics and other drugs that will be able to enter new markets in Eastern Europe and Asia because of the acquisition, and WPI is going to save hundreds of millions of dollars a year.

That's great for long-term, steady growth. The company has 180 drugs in development and 17 global research and development facilities all over the world.

The next five years is going to show WPI as a big growth name.

WPI is expected to grow about 14% a year for the next five years, and it's still challenging patents and getting its own generics to market.

But I want to talk to you about another name in the industry: Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (VRX:NYSE).

This company is kind of a hybrid pharmaceutical company. It focuses on specialized pharmaceuticals and branded generics. With its hands in both cookie jars, VRX has been able to weather the patent storm surprisingly well.

It's had consistent double-digit revenue growth since 2008. It does that by competing in the marketplace with its own generics, by entering big growth markets like Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia, and by snapping up other pharmaceutical and biotech companies.

And 2013 is expected to be a banner year. Here are the estimates:

For generics? Revenues are expected to grow by more than $100 million over 2012 figures. That's a pretty good number from a growing company working both sides of the fence.

Over the past year, shares have climbed more than 28%, with prices nearly doubling since early October 2011.

If you weren't able to get into WPI before its game-changing Actavis acquisition, VRX is a good option for your portfolio.

Happy Investing,

Sara


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Sara Nunnally is Managing Editor of Smart Investing Daily. As Senior Research Director and global correspondent, sShe has appeared on news media such as Forbes on Fox, Fox News Live, and CNBC's Squawk Box, as well as numerous radio shows.
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